1. Head, Aging Aircraft Program Naval Air Systems Command Robert P. Ernst The Redesign Dilemma

2. Agenda Decision factors & options for the program manager Weapons for fighting the impacts of Defense Darwinism

3. Program Managers Dilemma Redesign or Life-of-Type SupportRedesign or Life-of-Type Support –What factors need to be considered? –What option does the PM choose? –At what point does the PM decide?

4. Replacement Decision ‘Trigger’

5. Decision Factors Service Life Operational Requirements AVDLR or Maintenance Cost Hardware Availability Sustaining Support Available Options –Associated Risk –Cost of execution

6. -Service Life Decision Factors: -Service Life

7. Hardware Wear out –Drift rate of components Handling, excessive rework, fatigue, time vs gain, offsets, etc –Reversion of Materials Adhesive or epoxy breakdown due to time, temp, sunlight

8. Obsolescence Functionality Cost & Reliability -Operational Requirements Decision Factors: -Operational Requirements Enough Parts Good ($) Parts Does the job ? Need increased performance Mission Change Improperly defined Req’ts Need increased performance Mission Change Improperly defined Req’ts High Failure Rate –Electrical Stress –Thermal Stress –Mechanical Stress High Failure Rate –Electrical Stress –Thermal Stress –Mechanical Stress

9. Hardware Availability Decision Factors: Hardware Availability You Are Here Integrate supply & demand –Evaluate system-level spares –Excess microcircuit stock/die Integrate supply & demand –Evaluate system-level spares –Excess microcircuit stock/die

10. Hardware Availability Decision Factors: Hardware Availability Integrate supply & demand –Evaluate system-level spares –Excess microcircuit stock/die Integrate supply & demand –Evaluate system-level spares –Excess microcircuit stock/die

11. Component Solution-------------System Replacement Life-of-Type Buy Aftermarket Manufacturer Part Substitution Full System Replacement System Redesign/Box Replacement Box Redesign/ Subsystem Replacement Emulation Card Emulation Available Options Cost Risk HighLow

12. Boeing McDonnell Douglas Hughes Helicopter Rockwell General Dynamics Lockheed Martin Marietta United Technologies Grumman Northrop LTV Fairchild Kaman Bell 19802001 Boeing Lockheed Martin Northrop Grumman Textron (Sikorsky) Finding the same part...

13. Defense Darwinism Impacts Mergers, buy outs, die-offs result in: –Product Line Consolidation –Redefinition of sustained products –Division spin-offs –Changes to manufacturing techniques

14. Defense Darwinism DIFFICULT!Makes finding ‘listed part’ DIFFICULT! –Beware of Part Number Changes! –Discontinuation Notices are not final Industry thrives on cash Sometimes it only takes a phone call –Check for alternate suppliers Requires comparison of parametrics Usually requires testing

15. Get off the obsolescence treadmill! Couple Parts Parts Evaluation with Design Design Evaluation –Let’s incorporate reliable solutions –Appropriate use of parts with design applications F/A-18C/D Waterfall

16. Incorporate Design Tradeoffs Incorporation of industrial grade (-40C - 85C) Req’d startup of A/C cooling system prior to power on Incorporation of industrial grade (-40C - 85C) Req’d startup of A/C cooling system prior to power on Do we really need Full MIL-TEMP range??

17. Resources: Module/Subassembly Replacement Many OTS subassemblies available that duplicate performance -- BOLT-ON REPLACEMENT! Excellent candidates for power supplies/EMI filters AAIPT -- acceptable solution for 10% of obsolescence solutions

18. Resources: Minor board level redesign, Mod of existing board Alternate part part available in dif pkg/pinout Alt part is functionally different, but SRA requirements unchanged Board-level testing/Potential TPS changes Alternate part part available in dif pkg/pinout Alt part is functionally different, but SRA requirements unchanged Board-level testing/Potential TPS changes

19. Resources: Board-Level Redesign Good OptionGood Option –Multiple obsolescence problem –Board wear-out –Functionality changes (mission) RiskRisk –All All interfaces properly defined Linear over operating temperatures Throughput –Probable TPS/Software changes

20. Resources: WRA-Level Redesign Example -- CAINS

21. Resources: System-Level Replacement Multiple WRA Redesign Requires:Requires: –Systems-Level analysis –Major Logistics impact –Proper definitions –Completely new obsolescence analysis (esp. COTS) –RISK Requires:Requires: –Systems-Level analysis –Major Logistics impact –Proper definitions –Completely new obsolescence analysis (esp. COTS) –RISK

22. DMEA/ARINC Case History Alternate available 2/3rds of the time

23. NAVAIR Case History Avoidance to date -- $19.6 MillionAvoidance to date -- $19.6 Million Savings to date -- $4.5 MillionSavings to date -- $4.5 Million Avoidance to date -- $19.6 MillionAvoidance to date -- $19.6 Million Savings to date -- $4.5 MillionSavings to date -- $4.5 Million

24. APG-65 Radar Example 5 WRA’s 553 microcircuits 40 obs. components 4 SRA’s impacted multiple times –expensive hybrid design –$1-11K per device 5 WRA’s 553 microcircuits 40 obs. components 4 SRA’s impacted multiple times –expensive hybrid design –$1-11K per device A. Emulation @ SRA level B. DMEA Flexible Foundry C. Procure from Raytheon “Sister Company” A. Emulation @ SRA level B. DMEA Flexible Foundry C. Procure from Raytheon “Sister Company” Options Which is most cost effective?

25. APG-65 Options Multiple components on several cards High cost components Uncertain supplier Decision: Mixture of card and component emulation Multiple components on several cards High cost components Uncertain supplier Decision: Mixture of card and component emulation

26. Conclusions

27. Conclusions 1. Weapon service life uncertain

28. Conclusions 2. Evaluate options based on: a. Existing FY cost b. 7-year window c. Weapon LCC

29. Conclusions 1. Weapon service life uncertain 2. Evaluate options based on: a. Existing FY cost b. 7-year window c. Weapon LCC 3. Integrated weapon system evaluations - can’t chase chips

30. Conclusions 1. Weapon service life uncertain 2. Evaluate options based on: a. Existing FY cost b. 7-year window c. Weapon LCC 3. Int. wpn sys. evaluations - can’t chase chips 4. Current toolsets inadequate to assist PM’s with decision process