1. Weather-Climate Linkage Dave Novak (WPC) & Jon Gottschalck (CPC) January 21, 2014 1

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3. ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years Seamless Suite of NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance Systems Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Benefits Maritime Life & Property Space Operations Recreation Ecosystem Environment Emergency Mgmt Agriculture Reservoir Control Energy Planning Commerce Hydropower Fire Weather Health Aviation North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate Forecast System Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Global Forecast System North American Mesoscale Rapid Refresh Dispersion (smoke) Global Ensemble Forecast System Regional Hurricane (HWRF & GFDL) WavesGlobal Ocean Space Weather Weather – Climate Linkage Tsunami Whole Atmosphere HRRR NMME NLDAS Wave Ensemble Bays Storm Surge Global Dust Fire Wx 3 Air Quality

4. TimeframeCurrent Day 3-7 Daily forecasts CPC Hazards Day 6-10 CPC Day 6-10 Day 8-14 CPC Day 8-14 CPC Hazards Day 14-28 4

5. Initiatives to Bridge the Gap Day 7 1 Month Week 3&4 5

6. TimeframeFuture Day 3-7 Daily forecasts Winter Weather Outlook Day 6-10 Daily forecasts Day 8-14 CPC Heat Watch CPC Day 8-14 Prob Hazards Day 14-28 CPC Week 3 & 4 Monthly Hurricane Outlooks Severe Weather Outlooks Hazards ? Day 6-10 ? NEW 6

7. Extend Weather Forecasts to Day 10 NWS team being chartered to explore extending weather forecasts to Day 10 Enablers: Model improvements (GEFS anomaly cor > 0.6 to 9.4 days) Multimodel ensembles (NAEFS – 9.8 days) GEFS Reforecasts NWS Blender Project – sophisticated post processing Outstanding Questions: What elements? What format (deterministic vs. probabilistic)? Role of NWS operational units? What techniques (dynamic models / statistical approach)? 7

8. Forecast format and forecast process for Days 8- 10 may be different –Probabilistic format –Mix of dynamical ensemble, and statistical approaches Ongoing CPC/WPC discussions on teleconnections –For example, when MJO phase 3 and positive ENSO = enhanced probability of warm in the Northeast US MJO phase 7 = increased likelihood of Atmospheric Rivers in the west Extend Weather Forecasts to Day 10 8

9. Mine ensemble for common weather scenarios Use Ensemble Cluster Information ECMWF clusters of 500-hPa heights and anomalies 42% Chance East Coast Heat Wave 34% Chance Seasonal 26% Chance Wet 9

10. Probabilistic Hazards Enablers: NCEP Reforecast dataset Outstanding Questions: What elements and thresholds? Consistency with Day 8- 10 daily forecasts? Consistency with official week-2 hazards? Distinction between hazards and extremes? 10

11. 11 Identify “extreme” events relative to model climatology. Requires robust reforecast dataset. EFI concept complementary to probabilistic hazards EFI values of >.9 signal potential for extreme event, relative to the model climatology Extreme Forecast Index

12. Week 3 & 4 Enablers: NCEP CFS Statistical tools Outstanding Questions: Useful Skill? What is the final product format? 12

13. TimeframeCurrent Day 3-7 Daily forecasts CPC Hazards Day 6-10 CPC Day 6-10 Day 8-14 CPC Day 8-14 CPC Hazards Day 14-28 13

14. TimeframeFuture Day 3-7 Daily forecasts Winter Weather Outlook Day 6-10 Daily forecasts Day 8-14 CPC Heat Watch CPC Day 8-14 Prob Hazards Day 14-28 CPC Week 3 & 4 Monthly Hurricane Outlooks Severe Weather Outlooks Hazards ? Day 6-10 ? NEW 14