1. Blair Greimann, Ph.D., P.E., Technical Service Center, Sedimentation and River Hydraulics Group, Denver, CO Februrary 2015 www.usbr.gov/pmts/sediment Sediment Modeling under a Changing Climate – Numerical Modeling Lab

2. Scenario Selection 2 There are 112 downscaled and bias corrected climate models. Select 5 representative climate change scenarios to reduce computational requirements on operational flow models. 75 th percentile 25 th percentile H1H2 H3 H4 H5 Modeling Input: Stream Flows

3. Scenario Selection: Climate Model ScenarioDescription H0Observed Data H1 Warmer Temperature Lower Precipitation H2 Warmer Temperature Higher Precipitation H3Higher Temperature Lower Precipitation H4Higher Temperature Higher Precipitation H5Central 3

4. Scenario Selection: Time Periods 4 Time Frame SpecificationsStartEndYears Observed Historic Time Frame1950199950 Output Simulation Period1950199950 BCSD Period19502099150 Historic Base Time Frame1950199950 Future Range Name Future 1 Base Time Frame20102039302025 Future 2 Base Time Frame20402069302055 Future 3 Base Time Frame20702099302085 Modeling Input: Stream Flows

5. 5 Scenario Selection: Climate Model 2040-2069 Climate scenario 50-yr hydrologic scenario

6. 6 Modeling Input: Stream Flows Scenario Selection: Climate Model 2040-2069 Climate scenario 50-yr hydrologic scenario

7. 7 Modeling Input: Stream Flows Scenario Selection: Climate Model 2040-2069 Climate scenario 50-yr hydrologic scenario

8. Sediment Scenario Selection ScenarioDescriptionFactor S0Observed Data1 S1Lower Sediment loads0.5 S2Higher Sediment loads2 8 naming convention: “H#_####_S1” (e.g. H1_2020_S1)

9. Matrix of Simulations 9 Flow Scenario Sediment Scenario S0S1S2 H0XXX H1X H2X H3X H4X H5X The scenarios were generated for the 2055 climate period The same matrix can be generated for the 2025 and 2085 climate periods

10. Modeling Input: Upstream Sediment Load 10 Rio Grande

11. Modeling Input: Upstream Sediment Load 11 Rio Grande

12. Modeling Input: Upstream Sediment Load 12 Rio Grande

13. Modeling Input: Tributary Flow 13 Rio Grande Rio Grande at San Acacia has an annual flow of 5.5E+05 acre-ft Simulated area Reclamation (2011). One-Dimensional Modeling and Indicator Results for the Middle Rio Grande, Technical Report No. SRH- 2011-25, Prepared for Middle Rio Grande Project, New Mexico, Upper Colorado Region.

14. Modeling Input: Lateral Sediment Load 14 Rio Grande Reclamation (2011). One-Dimensional Modeling and Indicator Results for the Middle Rio Grande, Technical Report No. SRH- 2011-25, Prepared for Middle Rio Grande Project, New Mexico, Upper Colorado Region. Simulated area Rio Grande at San Acacia has an approximate annual load of 2000 acre-ft/yr

15. Modeling Input: Lateral Sediment Load 15 Rio Grande Reclamation (2011). One-Dimensional Modeling and Indicator Results for the Middle Rio Grande, Technical Report No. SRH- 2011-25, Prepared for Middle Rio Grande Project, New Mexico, Upper Colorado Region. Simulated area

16. Simulation procedure 1.Open “Job_control_Rio.xlsm” 2.Enter path and file name of excel sheets containing the necessary information for each scenario 3.Enter input file names to be created 4.Run macro “create input files” 5.Go to the simulation directory (“runs”) and run files individually or run batch file “batch_curdir_script.vbs” which will run all *.srh files in that directory 16

17. Additional Sediment Scenario Generation 1.Copy S0.xlsm to S#.xlsm 2.Change upstream sediment factor in sheet “SedimentDischarge” 3.Change Arroyo factor in sheet “LateralSediment” 4.Change size distribution in Arroyo size distribution in “LateralSediment” 5.Add additional scenario to “job_control_Rio.xlsm” and recreate input files 17

18. Result Display Procedure 1.For each simulation: a)Open each excel file corresponding to simulation id (e.g. “RioGrande SRH-1D results H0_2055_S0.xlsm”) b)Go to “data” sheet and run macro “import file” c)Select the file *OUT_profile.dat, where * is the simulation name 2.Open the summary Excel file to plot results. All linked files should be open as well if you want data updated. 18