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Global Economic Update March 31, 2009 EMBARGOED: Not for newswire transmission, posting on websites, or any other media use until 05:00 a.m. EDT, March.

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Presentation on theme: "Global Economic Update March 31, 2009 EMBARGOED: Not for newswire transmission, posting on websites, or any other media use until 05:00 a.m. EDT, March."— Presentation transcript:

1 Global Economic Update March 31, 2009 EMBARGOED: Not for newswire transmission, posting on websites, or any other media use until 05:00 a.m. EDT, March 31, 2009 which is 09:00 GMT/UTC (10:00 a.m., UK) See Embargo Policy for penalties for breaking embargoes.Embargo Policy

2 Overview  Financial crisis is having dramatic, instantaneous effects on production and trade in virtually every country.  Although initially private sectors are hit, fiscal pressures will quickly intensify.  Risk of balance-of-payment crises are substantial. EMBARGOED: Not for newswire transmission, posting on websites, or any other media use until 05:00 a.m. EDT, March 31, 2009 which is 09:00 GMT/UTC (10:00 a.m., UK) See Embargo Policy for penalties for breaking embargoes.Embargo Policy

3 Financing climate changed dramatically after September 2008 as confidence sunk Financial media coverage of crisis Source: World Bank, DEC Prospects Group. EMBARGOED: Not for newswire transmission, posting on websites, or any other media use until 05:00 a.m. EDT, March 31, 2009 which is 09:00 GMT/UTC (10:00 a.m., UK) See Embargo Policy for penalties for breaking embargoes.Embargo Policy

4 The heartbeat of the global economy Global IP m/m % growth Source: World Bank, DEC Prospects Group. EMBARGOED: Not for newswire transmission, posting on websites, or any other media use until 05:00 a.m. EDT, March 31, 2009 which is 09:00 GMT/UTC (10:00 a.m., UK) See Embargo Policy for penalties for breaking embargoes.Embargo Policy

5 The heartbeat of the global economy Global IP m/m % growth Source: World Bank, DEC Prospects Group. EMBARGOED: Not for newswire transmission, posting on websites, or any other media use until 05:00 a.m. EDT, March 31, 2009 which is 09:00 GMT/UTC (10:00 a.m., UK) See Embargo Policy for penalties for breaking embargoes.Embargo Policy

6 The heartbeat of the global economy Global IP 12m/12m % (monthly) growth High-income Low- and middle-income Source: World Bank, DEC Prospects Group. EMBARGOED: Not for newswire transmission, posting on websites, or any other media use until 05:00 a.m. EDT, March 31, 2009 which is 09:00 GMT/UTC (10:00 a.m., UK) See Embargo Policy for penalties for breaking embargoes.Embargo Policy

7 World production collapses Global IP m/m % growth Source: World Bank, DEC Prospects Group. EMBARGOED: Not for newswire transmission, posting on websites, or any other media use until 05:00 a.m. EDT, March 31, 2009 which is 09:00 GMT/UTC (10:00 a.m., UK) See Embargo Policy for penalties for breaking embargoes.Embargo Policy

8 $ Billion (12-month sum) Sovereign Debt and equity flows by borrower type Private corporations State-owned corporations Sharp downturn in private capital flows has hit private firms hard Source: World Bank, DEC Prospects Group. EMBARGOED: Not for newswire transmission, posting on websites, or any other media use until 05:00 a.m. EDT, March 31, 2009 which is 09:00 GMT/UTC (10:00 a.m., UK) See Embargo Policy for penalties for breaking embargoes.Embargo Policy

9 Sharp declines in IP across the world, especially in economies specialized in investment goods Industrial production; %change, January 2009 versus July 2008 Source: World Bank, DEC Prospects Group. EMBARGOED: Not for newswire transmission, posting on websites, or any other media use until 05:00 a.m. EDT, March 31, 2009 which is 09:00 GMT/UTC (10:00 a.m., UK) See Embargo Policy for penalties for breaking embargoes.Embargo Policy

10 Sharp fall in growth in developing world GDP growth, percent Source: World Bank, DEC Prospects Group. EMBARGOED: Not for newswire transmission, posting on websites, or any other media use until 05:00 a.m. EDT, March 31, 2009 which is 09:00 GMT/UTC (10:00 a.m., UK) See Embargo Policy for penalties for breaking embargoes.Embargo Policy

11 World economy contracting for the first time on record World Growth of real GDP, percent High Income Developing Source: World Bank data and projections. EMBARGOED: Not for newswire transmission, posting on websites, or any other media use until 05:00 a.m. EDT, March 31, 2009 which is 09:00 GMT/UTC (10:00 a.m., UK) See Embargo Policy for penalties for breaking embargoes.Embargo Policy

12 Even if growth turns positive again, the level of GDP will remain well below potential and economic distress acute Output gap : Difference between actual GDP and GDP at full employment, as a percent of potential High-income Developing Record levels of spare capacity Source: World Bank, DEC Prospects Group. EMBARGOED: Not for newswire transmission, posting on websites, or any other media use until 05:00 a.m. EDT, March 31, 2009 which is 09:00 GMT/UTC (10:00 a.m., UK) See Embargo Policy for penalties for breaking embargoes.Embargo Policy

13 General Government Balance Percent share of GDP Forecast Source: World Bank, DEC Prospects Group EMBARGOED: Not for newswire transmission, posting on websites, or any other media use until 05:00 a.m. EDT, March 31, 2009 which is 09:00 GMT/UTC (10:00 a.m., UK) See Embargo Policy for penalties for breaking embargoes.Embargo Policy

14 External financing gaps are concentrated in three regions: ECA, LAC and SSA… Estimated external financing gaps across regions Source: World Bank, DEC Prospects Group. EMBARGOED: Not for newswire transmission, posting on websites, or any other media use until 05:00 a.m. EDT, March 31, 2009 which is 09:00 GMT/UTC (10:00 a.m., UK) See Embargo Policy for penalties for breaking embargoes.Embargo Policy

15 ECA oil importing countries current account balance %GDP Source: World Bank data and projections. EMBARGOED: Not for newswire transmission, posting on websites, or any other media use until 05:00 a.m. EDT, March 31, 2009 which is 09:00 GMT/UTC (10:00 a.m., UK) See Embargo Policy for penalties for breaking embargoes.Embargo Policy

16 Developing countries need support  To mitigate the impact on most vulnerable in societies  To avert balance-of-payment crises  To alleviate fiscal pressures  To restore growth dynamics EMBARGOED: Not for newswire transmission, posting on websites, or any other media use until 05:00 a.m. EDT, March 31, 2009 which is 09:00 GMT/UTC (10:00 a.m., UK) See Embargo Policy for penalties for breaking embargoes.Embargo Policy

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