1. REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion ________________________________________________________________________________ REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion FP7, Theme [ENV.2011.1.3.1-1], Sept 2011 – Nov 2014 WP5 Vulnerability functions for industrial facilities and equipments

2. REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion ________________________________________________________________________________ Evaluation of Seismic Risk of Industrial Facilities Mário Lopes Instituto Superior Técnico, Lisbon, Portugal António Brito Estrutconsult,Lisbon, Portugal Carlos Sousa Oliveira Instituto Superior Técnico, Lisbon, Portugal F. Mota de Sá Instituto Superior Técnico, Lisbon, Portugal

3. REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion ________________________________________________________________________________ Sines industrial complex - 13 km 2 - Houses a significant number of National (Portuguese) and European Critical Infrastructures. Located next to the Atlantic Coast - 180 km away from several major seismogenic sources: (the Gorringe Bank and the Marquês de Pombal Fault) both able to raise a 8.5 to 9 magnitude earthquake, leading to Peak Ground Accelerations of about 0.20 g to 0.24 g in stiff rock soils, with the possibility of 0.4 g to 0.5 g in soft soils. - 90km away from the Lower Tagus Valley faults, able to generate magnitude 7 events

4. REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion ________________________________________________________________________________ Sines Seismic and Tsunamigenic Zones of concern Tagus River Valley (Fault complex) (90 km from Sines) Interaction of the African and Euroasiatic plates. (150 km from Sines)

5. REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion ________________________________________________________________________________

6. REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion ________________________________________________________________________________ Natural gas terminal with container and coal terminal behind

7. REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion ________________________________________________________________________________ Floatation of containers due to tsunami

8. REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion ________________________________________________________________________________ Container terminal and coal terminal

9. REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion ________________________________________________________________________________

10. REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion ________________________________________________________________________________ Oil tanker at oil and petro-cheminal terminals

11. REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion ________________________________________________________________________________ Refinery

12. REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion ________________________________________________________________________________ Petrochemical facility

13. REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion ________________________________________________________________________________ Power plant

14. REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion ________________________________________________________________________________ Evaluation of seismic vulnerability -Meetings with stakeholders and inspection of the facilities -Code base evaluation (related to date of design and construction) -Detailed evaluation of the potential seismic performance of selected equipments

15. REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion ________________________________________________________________________________ Seismic action: accelerograms (nonlinear dynamic analysis) or response spectra (for pushover analysis and N2 method) 2 types: -Near-field events (moderate magnitude, small epicentral distance, rich in high frequencies) -Far-field event (large magnitude, large epicentral distance, rich in low frequencies)

16. REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion ________________________________________________________________________________ Standard REAKT accelerograms used in WP5 – representative of near-field events   T C = 0,3s

17. REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion ________________________________________________________________________________ Sines

18. REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion ________________________________________________________________________________ Second set of accelerograms representative of far-field events: semi natural, semi artificial,   T C = 0,6s

19. REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion ________________________________________________________________________________

20. REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion ________________________________________________________________________________ Selected equipments Power transformers – exist in all large facilities and are indispensable Refinery chimney – indispensable to the operation of the refinery. Its a very specific type of structure. Reinforced concrete frames that support sulphur storage cylinders – representative of recent RC structures

21. REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion ________________________________________________________________________________

22. REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion ________________________________________________________________________________

23. REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion ________________________________________________________________________________ Kocaeli earthquake, Turkey, August 1999, Seka paper factory

24. REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion ________________________________________________________________________________ Kocaeli earthquake, Turkey, August 1999, factory EnerjiSA

25. REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion ________________________________________________________________________________ Damage – dominant mode: horizontal movement relatively to adjacent equipments or rotation  damage in bushings Compare displacement due to the earthquake with slack of connections to other equipments Calculation of displacements- transformers modelled as rigid bodies (only friction opposes the displacements)  one degree of freedom systems Numerical solution of the dynamic equation of movement Ma+Cv+kd=-Ma s  Ma-Fa=-Ma s

26. REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion ________________________________________________________________________________ Flexible connections

27. REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion ________________________________________________________________________________ Stiff connections

28. REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion ________________________________________________________________________________ Knowing the average friction coefficient at the base, which depends on the number of wheels with stoppers and of the coefficient of friction between the wheels and the base, it is possible to evaluate the median of a vulnerability function, which corresponds to a probability of 50% of the horizontal displacement of the transformer being above a maximum value, associated with damage leading to disruption of power supply Time dependency (foreshocks and aftershocks)  state dependency

29. REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion ________________________________________________________________________________

30. REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion ________________________________________________________________________________

31. REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion ________________________________________________________________________________

32. REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion ________________________________________________________________________________

33. REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion ________________________________________________________________________________ Refinery chimney

34. REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion ________________________________________________________________________________ D Ext Thick concrete As, Ext As,Int Thick bricks 234m tall Base - D =18m Thick = 0,65m Top - D = 6,4m Thick = 0,20m

35. REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion ________________________________________________________________________________ Modes 1 and 2 Modes 3 e 4 Modes 5 e 6 Mode 7 Mode 8 (vertical) [T=3.73s] [T=1.03s][T=0.46s] [T=0.25s][T=0.20s] Linear dynamic analysis

36. REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion ________________________________________________________________________________ Chimney deformed shapes – predominance of higher modes t=17.24s t=19.36s t=27.30s (Accelerogram: NF-6501x; PGA=12.0 ms -2 )

37. REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion ________________________________________________________________________________ Maximum strains at each section along the height – 40m long plastic hinge centered at 180m (original design, at late 1970´s did not applied Capacity Design)

38. REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion ________________________________________________________________________________ Estado de degradaç ão Crité rio I Sem dano s e s < 0.7 e sy II Ligei ram ente danif icad o 0.7 e sy < e s < e sy III Mod erad ame nte danif icad o e sy < e s < e sy + 0.25 ( e su - e su ) IV Seve ram ente danif icad o e sy + 0.25 ( e su - e sy ) < e s < e su VRotu ra e s > e su ou e c > e cu Consideraram-se os estados de degradação indicados no quadro seguinte. NOTA:  sy =412 MPa / 200GPa = 2.06 ‰;  su = 75 ‰ ;  cu = 4 ‰ ; Estado de degradaçãoCritério I No damage  s < 0.7  sy II Slight damage 0.7  sy <  s <  sy III Moderate damage  sy <  s <  sy + 0.25 (  su -  su ) IV Severe damage  sy + 0.25 (  su -  sy ) <  s <  su V Colappse  s >  su ou  c >  cu Note:  sy =412 MPa / 200GPa = 2.06‰;  su = 75‰;  cu = 4 ‰;

39. REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion ________________________________________________________________________________

40. REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion ________________________________________________________________________________

41. REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion ________________________________________________________________________________ F t Time dependency (ageing effects)

42. REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion ________________________________________________________________________________ Sulphur storage cylinders and support structure

43. REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion ________________________________________________________________________________ Single degree of freedom system in two orthogonal directions Pushover analyses and N2 method Performance points for different damage states represent median values of fragility functions Fragility functions can be drawn if variability is known

44. REAKT - Strategies and tools for Real time EArthquake risK reducTion ________________________________________________________________________________ Thank you for your attention