1. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management CO 2 emissions from the non-energy use of fossil fuels Presentation for workshop on energy balances and energy related GHG emission inventories, EEA Copenhagen, 24/25 June 2003 Maarten Neelis and Martin Patel

2. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Contents Introduction to the subject The European non-energy use network Introduction to the NEAT model Country focus: the Netherlands, Japan and Italy Preliminary conclusions from model studies Conclusions and recommendations Future steps

3. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Introduction to the subject (1/2) Non-energy use of fossil fuels:Use as feedstock in the chemical industry Use of non-energy refinery products What happens to the embodied carbon: Industrial process emissions: e.g. ammonia production Carbon storage: e.g. polymers Solvent and other product use: e.g. solvents

4. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Introduction to the subject (2/2) Share of non-energy use CO 2 emissions - Increased from 1% to 3% between 1970 and 1995 - Unequally distributed among countries Methods to calculate CO 2 emissions - Top-down approach based on energy statistics (IPCC-RA): Carbon emitted = total fuel consumption – carbon stored Carbon stored = storage fraction * non-energy use - Bottom-up approaches (IPCC-SA) Summing up emissions (from ammonia production, from..., from..)

5. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management The European non-energy use network (1/2) - 11 partners funded by the European Commission - 2 active unfunded partners from Korea and the USA - Active involvement international organizations (e.g. IEA) - 30 subscribers to the non-energy use mailing list

6. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management The European non-energy use network (2/2) Main aims: - Development of non-energy use CO 2 emissions model (NEAT) - Improvement of non-energy use data in statistics - Suggestions for improvement of both IPCC-RA and IPCC-SA Project periods - First project period (01-01-1999 – 30-06-2000) - Second project period (01-09-2001 – 28-02-2003) - Third project period (?)

7. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Introduction to the NEAT model (1/3) Stage 1: NEAT calculates non-energy use CO 2 emissions: - Emissions during product use - Industrial process emissions - (Feedstock used for energy purposes) Stage 2: NEAT compares the results with other approaches - Comparison of total NEU NEAT with NEU ENERGY STATISTICS - Comparison of NEU emissions and NEU storage NEAT with CO 2 emission inventories - Comparison of total fossil CO 2 emissions NEAT with CO 2 emission inventories Stage 3: NEAT determines carbon storage fractions for RA

8. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Introduction to the NEAT model (2/3) : Method is independent from energy balances!

9. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Introduction to the NEAT model (3/3) : Overview of the NEAT method

10. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management NEAT model : Country studies NEAT model (partly) applied for: - the Netherlands (1993-1999) - Germany (1990, 1993, 1995-2000) - Japan (1996) - India (1996) - Russia (1996, 2000) - Korea (1996, 1999, 2000) - UK (1996) - Denmark (2001) - Austria (1999)

11. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management NEAT model : Some country results Japan:Gielen (2002) Carbon storage 84 instead of 107 Mt CO 2 (1996) CO 2 emissions 1259 instead of 1236 Mt CO 2 (-1.9%) Italy:La Motta et. al. (2002) Non-energy use (IEA/EUROSTAT,1997): 576 PJ (gross definition) Non-energy use (CRF, 1997): 352 PJ (net definition) NL:Neelis et. al. (2003) Non-energy use underestimated in energy statistics Country specific storage fraction currently too low

12. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Preliminary conclusions from model studies - IPCC-RA default storage fractions only reasonable when the non-energy use data do not follow a gross definition. - Storage fraction in oil products 80 – 95 % when net definition of non-energy use is applied. - Storage fraction for natural gas very much dependant on downstream structure (e.g. import of natural gas derived chemicals). - Main data requirement and uncertainty in downstream model (estimating emissions during product use).

13. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Conclusions and recommendations (1/3) : international energy balances - Harmonize the non-energy (feedstock) use in energy balances to exclude fuel use and backflows  IEA/EUROSAT questionnaire has been changed - Acknowledge possible double counting resulting from backflows (aromatics). Should be feasible because number of players normally small.

14. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Conclusions and recommendations 2/3 : IPCC methods general - Update and extend set of emissions factors for industrial processes - Remove ambiguity in scope of IPCC-RA: Suggestion: IPCC-RA as a check for all CO 2 emissions from fossil origin excluding waste - Replace distinction between long-lived (> 20 years) vs. short-lived (< 20 year) with distinction Oxidised During Use vs. Not-Oxidised During Use - Reconsider/replace storage fractions Marland/Rotty (different system boundaries)

15. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Conclusions and recommendations 3/3 : national CO 2 emission inventory - Study the position of non-energy use in both energy balances and national emission inventory! - Study the position of product related emissions and residual fuel use - Conduct material flow analysis to calculate non-energy use storage: * With the NEAT model (major data requirement) * With simpler model based on basic chemicals only

16. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Future work of the non-energy use network - Development of a simpler model (applicable with less than 1 person month) - Application of the simpler model to all countries - Further development and application of the detailed model - Harmonization of non-energy use data in balances - Further research into product related emissions - Dissemination of results towards IPCC

17. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management For more information: Website:http://www.chem.uu.nl/nws/www/nenergy/ E-mail:m.l.neelis@chem.uu.nl / m.k.patel@chem.uu.nl Phone:+31-(0)30-2533750 / 7600

18. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management CO 2 emissions from the non-energy use of fossil fuels -additional slides- Presentation for workshop on energy balances and energy related GHG emission inventories, EEA Copenhagen, 24/25 June 2003 Maarten Neelis and Martin Patel

19. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Introduction to the subject (3/3) Difficulties with respect to CO 2 inventories - How is the non-energy use of fossil fuels defined in energy balances? - How do we determine non-energy use CO 2 emissions and in which emission category do we put them? - How do we determine non-energy use storage? - How do we determine the correct storage fractions

20. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Introduction to the subject (4/4) The problem of the right definition, steam crackers Naphtha input (100%) High value chemicals (~65%) Backflows (~10%) Non-energy use 65, 75, 90 or 100 % of the input ? Fuel use (~25%)

21. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Introduction to the NEAT model (2/6) : Stage 1a: emissions during products use - Carbon balance for 77 chemicals in total - Import/Export is taken into account - Critical element is the fraction ODU vs. NODU

22. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Introduction to the NEAT model (3/6) : Stage 1b: industrial process emissions - Solid carbon use for the production of metals (e.g. anodes for aluminium) - Steam cracking to produce olefins (ethylene, propylene) - Production of ammonia, methanol and carbon black - Definition of non-energy can be tailored to existing methods:

23. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Introduction to the NEAT model (6/6) : Stage 3: Determining storage fractions with NEAT

24. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Results for NL (1/8) : NEU emissions

25. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Results for NL (2/8) : NEU oil products Gap cannot be explained in detail (at the level of individual companies), because of the high level of confidentiality and the difficult position of aromatics. Reason for gap remains unclear (position of ‘omzettingssaldo’, role of emission factors etc.)

26. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Results for NL (3/8) : total fossil CO 2 emissions

27. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Results for NL (4/8) : Total fossil CO 2 emissions

28. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Storage NEAT = 21.4 / (21.4 + 5.9) = 78 % Storage NIR = 15.4 / (15.4 + 9.5) = 62 % Adapted Storage = 21.4 / (15.4 + 9.5) = 86 % TPES = 187.3 Mt CO2 Fossil emissions = 187.3 - 21.4 = 165.9 = 187.3 - 0.86 * (15.4 + 9.5) Results for NL (5/8) : Storage fractions

29. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management - Allocation of non-energy use emissions and storage for individual fuels - Oil products calculated in aggregated form Results for NL (6/8) : Storage fractions per fuel

30. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Uncertainty standard fractions:approximately + 5% and – 10% Uncertainty adapted fractions:approximately + 5% and – 5% Results for NL (7/8) : Storage fraction natural gas

31. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management - Standard NEAT storage fraction:33% - Adapted NEAT storage fraction:25% - Current storage fraction (Gielen for 1992):10% - Difference caused by: Methodological difference (consumer vs. producer approach) Difference in allocation of methanol derivatives Dataset NEAT consistent with dataset Dolf Gielen for 1992 Results for NL (8/8) : Storage fraction natural gas

32. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Storage fractions per types of fuel Bitumen 100 % Coke and Coal0 % Lubricants67 % (rather uncertain) Coal tars and oils (other tar derivatives)

33. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Non-energy use emissions: Results for the Netherlands 1993-1999

34. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Ammonia production

35. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Ammonia production

36. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Overall storage fractions

37. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Storage fraction natural gas

38. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Storage fraction oil products