1. UKIP and the Left Behind: Explaining Britain’s Revolt on the Right Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin

2. Why are we here? Source: Pickup, Jennings and Ford “Polling Observatory” poll aggregation estimates

3. Why UKIP was a long-time coming (and may have a long way to run)

4. Decline of the British Working Class, 1964-2012 Source: BES 1964-83; BSA 1984-12; class measured using Goldthorpe–Heath 5-category class schema

5. Rise of the Educated Middle Class, 1964-2012 Source: British Election Studies 1964-1983; British Social Attitudes 1984-2012

6. Class and educational divides in EU support... Source: British Social Attitudes 1993-2012

7. Immigration divides us by class, education, and generation... Source: British Election Study Continuous Monitoring Survey 2004-13

8. The working class feel more left out than ever before Source: British Social Attitudes 1986-2012

9. What all this means: UKIP are mobilising the “Left behind”

10. So who are the UKIP voters?

11. UKIP’s base: male, pale, stale, and struggling

12. The Brussels Plus: Not just single-issue Eurosceptics..

13. They are very unhappy about both parties’ performance on immigration and the crisis…

14. ....and very hostile to both parties’ leaders

15. UKIP Support among Different Groups 2004-2013: “Doubling Down” on the Left Behind Strong Eurosceptics Weak Eurosceptics Europhiles Populism - dissatisfied with democracy Blair: 2004-71550.6 Brown: 2007-101250.6 Cameron I: 2010-112050.4 Cameron II: 2012-1338151 Share of sample141821 Immigration - rate importance of asylum 10 out of 10 Blair: 2004-71461 Brown: 2007-101150.8 Cameron I: 2010-111650.8 Cameron II: 2012-1336142 Share of the sample151611

16. Labour’s 2015 problem

17. UKIP is recruiting mainly former Cons…

18. …from the dissatisfied groups Labour ought to be reconnecting with

19. Labour’s post 2010 rebound is strongest where UKIP’s appeal is weakest

20. Labour’s 2020 problem SeatIncumbent 1.Clacton Con 2. RhonddaLab 3. Blaenau Gwent Lab 4. Kingston-upon-Hull EastLab 5. EastingtonLab 6. KnowsleyLab 7. BarnsleyLab 8. AberavonLab 9. Merthyr Tydfil and RhymeneyLab 10. Doncaster North Lab 11. Liverpool Walton Lab 12. Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford Lab 13. Great Grimsby Lab 14. Ashfield Lab 15. Bolsover Lab 16. Boston and Skegness Con 17. Cynon Valley Lab 18. Wentworth and Dearne Lab 19. Redcar LD 20. Houghton and Sunderland South Lab

21. Incumbent party, top 100 UKIP-leaning seats

22. What we just said in far more detail… @robfordmancs @GoodwinMJ