1. An Overview of CPC’s Development Branch Arun Kumar Chief, Development Branch Climate Prediction Center

2. 2 Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011 Current Activities Global and Regional Climate AnalysisGlobal and Regional Climate Analysis Real-time Global Climate MonitoringReal-time Global Climate Monitoring Forecast Tool Development/ ImprovementForecast Tool Development/ Improvement Predictions, Verifications, and Expert AssessmentsPredictions, Verifications, and Expert Assessments Climate Diagnostics and AttributionClimate Diagnostics and Attribution Applied ResearchApplied Research Outreach and ServiceOutreach and Service International ActivitiesInternational Activities Climate Test-BedClimate Test-Bed

3. 3 Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011 Global and Regional Climate Analysis –Maintain and monitor various atmospheric and oceanic real-time climate analyses systems (R1, R2, NARR, GODAS) –Disseminates associated datasets to customers and partners –Analyses are either model based or objective –The analysis efforts are the backbone for real-time global climate monitoring

4. 4 Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011 Real-time Global Climate Monitoring : Oceans SSH HC SST

5. 5 Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011 Real-time Global Climate Monitoring : Oceans ENSO

6. 6 Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011 Real-time Global Climate Monitoring: Surface Droughts

7. 7 Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011 Real-time Global Climate Monitoring: Surface Surface Temperature Rainfall Soil Moisture

8. 8 Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011 Real-time Global Climate Monitoring: Troposphere Variability Storm Tracks Teleconnections

9. 9 Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011 Real-time Global Climate Monitoring: Troposphere MJO

10. 10 Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011 Real-time Global Climate Monitoring : Stratosphere SSW Total Ozone Ozone Hole Trends

11. 11 Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011 Predictions, Verifications, and Integrated Assessments ENSO Diagnostics Discussion

12. 12 Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011 Predictions, Verifications, and Integrated Assessments Climate Forecast System

13. 13 Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011 Climate Diagnostics and Attribution

14. 14 Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011 Applied Research –Developing improved analyses Enhancing data bases (data archeology)Enhancing data bases (data archeology) Quality control and analysis proceduresQuality control and analysis procedures Consistency among analyses for different variablesConsistency among analyses for different variables New objectively analyzed fieldsNew objectively analyzed fields –Improving forecast tools Multi-model ensemble techniquesMulti-model ensemble techniques DroughtDrought Bias correction techniquesBias correction techniques Forecast consolidation techniquesForecast consolidation techniques Empirical forecast tools (e.g., MJO and ENSO composites; teleconnections;…)Empirical forecast tools (e.g., MJO and ENSO composites; teleconnections;…)

15. 15 Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011 Applied Research –Understanding predictability for various time- scales MJO predictability and the influence of air-sea interactionMJO predictability and the influence of air-sea interaction Sources and estimates of associated predictability (e.g., sea-ice, climate trends;…)Sources and estimates of associated predictability (e.g., sea-ice, climate trends;…) Weather-Climate connection: Impact of LF variability on storm tracks, etc.Weather-Climate connection: Impact of LF variability on storm tracks, etc. –Developing new products Monitoring of ENSO heat budgetMonitoring of ENSO heat budget Objective drought outlookObjective drought outlook

16. 16 Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 11 February 2011 Summary Real-time climate analysis and monitoring products generated by the Development Branch are used extensively worldwideReal-time climate analysis and monitoring products generated by the Development Branch are used extensively worldwide Analysis products maintained by the Development Branch, e.g., R1, R2, NARR, rainfall, have a wide audience and user baseAnalysis products maintained by the Development Branch, e.g., R1, R2, NARR, rainfall, have a wide audience and user base Real-time briefings provided by the Development Branch are a reliable source of evolving global climate conditionsReal-time briefings provided by the Development Branch are a reliable source of evolving global climate conditions Applied research efforts in the Development Branch focuses on advancing NOAA’s climate analysis, monitoring, and prediction effortsApplied research efforts in the Development Branch focuses on advancing NOAA’s climate analysis, monitoring, and prediction efforts