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Washington County HRA February 3, 2014 County Market Study: Cottage Grove Maxfield Research Inc.
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Maxfield Research Inc. Housing Study Purpose – independent third party analysis of county housing market – Document housing needs – Guide HRA strategic planning – Assist with funding applications – Define relationship between housing and economic development 2
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Study Objectives – Examine existing housing market and demographic trends – Research existing and projected economic and job sector data – Identify future senior and workforce housing demand to 2030 – Identify senior housing trends – Develop affordable housing production scenarios
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Submarket Map 10 submarkets East vs. West Cottage Grove submarket includes – Cottage Grove – Grey Cloud Island – St. Paul Park – Newport
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Met Council Projections Cottage Grove Submarket Population Projections Forecast Models Met Council 2030 2040 Maxfield 2030 Cottage Grove Submarket68,97053,65059,000 Met Council current “draft” projection for 2040 is lower than 2030 projection Maxfield in middle of two Met Council projections 2010 Census Cottage Grove Submarket43,592 Cottage Grove Submarket 2010 Census Population
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Cottage Grove Study Findings - Demographics Steady growth Decline in household size also evident
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Cottage Grove Study Findings - Demographics 1980-2010 No. % 2010-2030 No. % Cottage Grove Submarket16,060+58%15,408+35% County124,565+110%83,934+35% Cottage Grove and County Population Change 1980-2010 and 2010-2030
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Cottage Grove Study Findings- Jobs 9,368 total jobs – 12.7% of County Education & Health Services largest – 25% of total Manufacturing; Education & Health Services; Other Services high concentration Between 2011-12 – Number employees drop 170; 1.8% (County + 0.9%) – Number of businesses + 20
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Cottage Grove Study Findings- Wages Average Weekly Wages 2012 Wage 2011-12 Change Cottage Grove.$742+0.1% County$766+1.7% Metro$1,076+3.0% Low wages compared to County and Metro
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Cottage Grove Study Findings- Employment Cottage Grove and County Employment Change No.% 1990-2012 Cottage Grove2,135+29% County35,072+90% 2010-2020 Cottage Grove1,386+14% County 13,798+19%
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Cottage Grove Study Findings- Housing Existing General Occupancy Rental Inventory PropertiesUnits Market Rate9589 Affordable4344 Total131,277 Average Rent (July 2013) Cottage Grove Washington County 1 BR$745$868 2 BR$867$1,071 3 BR$1,151$1,482
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Cottage Grove Study Findings- Housing Existing Senior Housing Inventory PropertiesUnits Active Adult14 Congregate186 Assisted Living262 Memory Care262 Affordable3150 Total*5364 * Some properties offer multiples service levels
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Cottage Grove Study Findings- Demand Greatest demand for Single Family through 2030 Close to jobs in downtowns and Woodbury
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Cottage Grove Study Findings- Demand 2013-2020 General Occupancy Demand – Single family 55% – Multifamily 30% – Rental 16%
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Cottage Grove Study Findings- Demand Greatest demand for Single Family Move Up through 2030 No new rental development since Hinton Heights in 1993
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Cottage Grove Study Findings- Demand 2020 point in time demand for senior housing
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Cottage Grove Study Findings- Demand 2030 point in time demand for senior housing includes 2020 demand Norris Square built in 2010 Additional units needed to meet future demand as population ages
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