1. Summary of Progress with POAMA/ACCESS Seasonal Prediction System

2. POAMA/ACCESS - Seasonal Prediction System 200820072010 POAMA-2 POAMA-1.5 POAMA-3 2009 Hind-casts 2011 Operational Products & docs Applications System Re-analyses Hind-casts Operational Products and doc Applications System Development Re-analyses Hind-casts Operational Products & Doc Applications

3. Major improvements POAMA-1.5 New ACCESS atmosphere/land initialisation (ALI) system Comprehensive hind-cast set (1980-2006, 10 member ensemble each month) - 3 members done Rainfall forecasts (direct + statistical downscaling) Intra-seasonal (weekly) forecasts OpenDAP external data server (sample - last 3 years available) POAMA-2 New ACCESS Ocean assimilation system (PEODAS) New ACCESS ensemble generation strategy Increased atmospheric resolution (T95 - optional) POAMA-3 New ACCESS coupled model (UKMO UM, AusCOM,..) Higher resolution (ocean, atmosphere) Greenhouse gases New ACCESS coupled assimilation system

4. Results POAMA-1.5B So far 3 out of 10 member ensemble each month from 1980-2005 Real-time forecasts in next 2 months (Some results from preliminary version 1.5A, with no ALI) Summary of work of many from BMRC

5. P15b P15a P1 Persistence P15b P15a P1 Persistence Produced by Guomin Wang NINO 3 SSTA forecasts

6. P15b P15a P1 Persistence Indian Ocean Dipole Model Index Produced by Guomin Wang

7. POAMA15B 1982-2005 3 members mean Skill at lead=5 Dashed: persistence Produced by Guomin Wang

8. SST Anomaly Correlation POAMA-1POAMA-1.5 1 month 3 month 5 month Produced by Guomin Wang

9. MAM forecasts Winner POAMA Loser SVD Rainfall Forecasts (POAMA-1.5A) Produced by Eun-Pa Lim and Harry Hendon

10. SON Forecasts Winner Bridging (EOF/NINO4) Loser SVD-calib Produced by Eun-Pa Lim and Harry Hendon Rainfall Forecasts (POAMA-1.5A)

11. 1997 OBS 2002 SST anomaly predicted by POAMA 1.5a at LT3 1997 2002 1997 vs 2002 SST forecasts Produced by Eun-Pa Lim and Harry Hendon

12. 1997 2002 1997 vs 2002 Rainfall forecasts Obs Forecast - Lead 3 Produced by Eun-Pa Lim and Harry Hendon

13. Intra-Seasonal Forecasts Initialised with true state of ocean, land and atmosphere Stored daily data Can start looking at weekly time scales Gap between NWP and Seasonal prediction

14. Skill over Australia as a function of lead time (days): precipitation (by Debbie Hudson) (1980-2001) KEY: persistence p15a p15b 0.5

15. Wheeler MJO Phase Diagram Forecasts starting 1st March 1997 50 day forecasts Light Blue - obs Other colours - ensembles Produced by Harun Rashid

16. Summary Significant improvement in SST skill levels Rainfall competitive with statistical forecasts ? Range of new products Seasonal and Weekly forecast Comprehensive hind-cast set available soon Available externally - openDAP server Exiting year ahead !!