1. Using value-of-time distributions in auto assignment to forecast effects of road pricing schemes with non-additive charges Leonid Engelson & Dirk van Amelsfort 22 nd Emme Users’ Conference, Portland 2011

2. Background Road charges has been implemented in a dozen of cities More cities consider Typically designed as charge zone or charge cordon (set of links) London, Milano, Valetta: pay as you drive or park in the zone Singapore, Stockholm: pay each time you pass the cordon Gothenburg (decided): pay as you pass any link of the set, once within 60 minutes (Multiple Passage Rule, MPR) WSP Sweden was responsible for modelling in the design project of CC system for Gothenburg How to model CC system with MPR? 22 nd Emme Users’ Conference, Portland 2011

3. Background 22 nd Emme Users’ Conference, Portland 2011

4. OSLO MALMÖ STOCKHOLM Sweden’s second largest city 500 000 inhabitants Freight hub Land use low density River with only 3 – 4 crossings Railway station dead-end

5. Gothenburg suffers (some) congestion in morning peak 22 nd Emme Users’ Conference, Portland 2011

6. …and substantial air quality problems 22 nd Emme Users’ Conference, Portland 2011 Nitrogen dioxide 98-percentile in 2008 (Red = above the Environmental Quality Standards)

7. Politicians were inspired by success of the Congestion charging in Stockholm Jan-July 2006 Trial Sep 2006Referendum showed: Most inhabitants of the Stockholm commune are positive to the charges August 2007 Permanent introduction Cordon based Time differentiated 1,5-3 $ per passage Delimited by water 18 entry points sufficient Bypass exempted from charging 22 nd Emme Users’ Conference, Portland 2011

8. Objectives… 100 million $ net revenue in 2015. Reduction in congestion and air polluting emissions from traffic Reduction of traffic through central Gothenburg and constraints… Reasonable cost increase for travellers. Fit under the existing legislation Logical and easy to understand for the users. ANPR technology from Stockholm Tax to be paid 06.00 am – 18.30 pm. Same fare for all non-exempted vehicles 22 nd Emme Users’ Conference, Portland 2011

9. First stage of the design : 5 cordon types examined, 5 types of effects predicted Small cordon chosen Revenue Environment Congestion Route choices Modal split 22 nd Emme Users’ Conference, Portland 2011

10. Second stage of the design: Blue and Green – two small cordons evaluated in detail Multiple passages => one charge 22 nd Emme Users’ Conference, Portland 2011

11. Modelling tool: SAMPERS – Swedish travel demand model 5 regions + long trips Four stages Multiclass auto assignment with generalized costs (Emme) Complication 1: Non-additive route cost: paying just once Complication 2: Discrete values of time Too coarse representation of preferences Optimal discretization different for different OD-pairs ABC 1 $ 22 nd Emme Users’ Conference, Portland 2011

12. Solution: Hierarchic route choice with VoT distribution 2 classes auto assignment: to H and to D Module 5.25, save paths TimeH and TimeD DistH and DistD Paying trip matrix Non-paying trip matrix Define modes: H = whole road network D = links without charges Weigh together for CBA 0 1 Value of time F Repeat until convergence (MSA) 22 nd Emme Users’ Conference, Portland 2011

13. Convergence with MSA applied to the demand 22 nd Emme Users’ Conference, Portland 2011

14. From new Swedish VoT study: Lognormal distributions (kr/h) ($1=6.3kr) 22 nd Emme Users’ Conference, Portland 2011

15. Blue and Green – two small zones evaluated in detail Multiple passages => one charge Generally similar effects Blue chosen + Stronger congestion releif + Stronger effect on the air quality 22 nd Emme Users’ Conference, Portland 2011

16. Flow changes with charges, the Blue scenario 22 nd Emme Users’ Conference, Portland 2011

17. Final scheme Yellow sistem Closed ring+6 links Improved Urban function and understandability compared to the blue system (using the same method) 22 nd Emme Users’ Conference, Portland 2011

18. Advantages of the method Can be applied to some road user charge systems with discounts Allows arbitrary distributions of VoT Good convergence Limitations If the user pays each time, needs 2 N user classes, N=number of elements of the charging system (toll rings + separate toll links) For example, not possible to study effect of the multiple passage rule with continuous VoT distribution for the Yellow system 22 nd Emme Users’ Conference, Portland 2011

19. Unresolved issues  VoT for business trips and freight  Distance weight seems too high in the base scenario Distance weight = (gasoline and amortisation cost per km)/(median VoT) Too low VoT? The drivers don’t consider the whole distance related cost? In the last case (reduced distance cost), too strong (compared to the multiclass method) response to the charges Distangle distance cost from VoT? Needed to further calibrate VoT and cost per km 22 nd Emme Users’ Conference, Portland 2011

20. Conclusions Assignment method with continuous VoT distribution worked well in the application to Gothenburg Manages cordon charge that is independent of the number of crossings Warning: assignment with continuous VoT may give very different results compared to the assignment with discrete VoT. 22 nd Emme Users’ Conference, Portland 2011

21. Thank you for your attention Questions? 22 nd Emme Users’ Conference, Portland 2011

22. Welcome to the Nordic Emme Users’ Conference 19-20 March 2012 in Stockholm! 22 nd Emme Users’ Conference, Portland 2011