1. Transportation and the Economy
2015 Transportation Seminar
Willamette University
January 14, 2015
Dr. Tom Potiowsky
Director, Northwest Economic Research Center

2. TRANSPORT & INVESTMENT

3. Transport and Infrastructure Investment
American Society of Civil Engineers Report
Source: ASCE
Source: American Society of Civil Engineers
Reporthttp://

4. Transport and Infrastructure Investment
American Society of Civil Engineers Report
ASCE finds that with an additional investment of $157 billion a year between now and 2020, the U.S. can eliminate this drag on economic growth and protect:
$3.1 trillion in GDP, almost the equivalent of Germany’s entire GDP
$1.1 trillion in U.S. trade value, equivalent to Mexico’s GDP  
3.5 million jobs, more than the jobs created in the U.S. over the previous 22 months
$2.4 trillion in consumer spending, comparable to Brazil’s GDP
$3,100 in annual personal disposable income
Source: ASCE
Source: American Society of Civil Engineers Report

5. The Circular Flow of the Economy
Source:

7. A few Important Facts and Trends From Oregon Transportation Plan 2006
Oregon Department of Transportation Goal: “To promote the expansion and diversification of Oregon’s economy through the efficient and effective movement of people, goods, services and information in a safe, energy efficient and environmentally sound manner.”
“Oregon’s transportation system is part of a broader Northwest and West Coast regional, national and international transportation system.”
“The Portland metropolitan area is the economic hub of the state with a wide diversity of businesses and key transportation facilities, Oregon’s economy is dependent on products and services from all parts of the state.”
Source: Oregon Transportation Plan (pag. 53, 54)
I:\Research\Shares\nerc\PROJECTS\Presentations\Future Presentations\ ODOT
Source: Oregon Transportation Plan 2006, Transportation Development Division

8. Oregon Commodity Flow Forecast
According to ODOT’s Commodity Flow Forecast from 2009:
Truck flows dominate with shares of roughly 72-78%
All flows remain relatively stable
Air remains less than .1% in tonnage, but 6-11% of flows in terms of value
It should also be noted that Air freighting moves high-value products (such as pharmaceuticals and legal documents)
Source: ODOT, Commodity Flow Forecast, 2009
Excerpt:
As shown in Exhibit 2, truck flows dominate throughout the Oregon CFF, with a share of
roughly 72 to 78%. All modes retain a stable share over the forecast period. Air
remains less than 0.1% in terms of overall tonnage, but represents six to 11% of flows
in terms of value of all state freight movements. The Oregon CFF numbers obscure the
importance of air in the state freight system as the ability to ship products by air is
critical to seamless delivery of high-value products for business, industry, and personal
uses. Such key commodities moved by air range from pharmaceuticals (e.g., blood and
organs) to other time-sensitive deliveries (e.g., legal documents, auto parts).
Source: Exhibit 2, Commodity Flow Forecast, ODOT 2009

9. Oregon Commodity Flow Forecast
Source: ODOT, Commodity Flow Forecast, 2009
Excerpt:
The Oregon CFF tonnage is summarized by Oregon region in Exhibit 4 and excludes
pipeline flows. Overall the growth rates are relatively consistent, with Portland growing
at the highest rate due to the fact that it provides a gateway, and thus an origin or
destination for many state flows, resulting in compounding of flows that cause it to grow
at a faster rate. Non-Portland regions are growing slightly faster than OEA population
growth rate of 1.3%).
Source: Exhibit 4, Commodity Flow Forecast, ODOT 2009

10. Source: Oregon Ports Presentation
Location: I:\Research\samba\nerc\Completed Projects\Ports\Draft Report and Slides
-Peter
Source: Economic Benefits of Oregon Public Ports

11. Port of Portland: global & domestic trading hub
Columbia River Ports: agriculture, food/beverage processing, energy, advanced technology
Agricultural Products & Outdoor Recreation
Business
& Trade
Inputs
Coastal Ports: seafood, wood products, tourism
Source: Oregon Ports Presentation
Location: I:\Research\samba\nerc\Completed Projects\Ports\Draft Report and Slides
Forest Products & Outdoor Recreation
Source: Economic Benefits of Oregon Public Ports

12. Port of Portland, Portland Harbor & Port of Vancouver Economic Benefits
Oregon Ports provide the link between producers (i.e., agriculture, forest and seafood products) and manufacturing products (i.e., electronics, food and energy products) with global and domestic markets.
1 in 6 jobs in Oregon are port-related.
[Oregon Ports Strategic Plan]
Jobs related to exports pay 20-40% more than average.
[Brookings Institute, 2010 Value of Jobs study]
Portland Region ranks 4th in U.S. in export value (as share of Metro output in 2012).
[Brookings Institute, 2013]
Source: Oregon Ports Presentation
Location: I:\Research\samba\nerc\Completed Projects\Ports\Draft Report and Slides

13. Port of Portland, Portland Harbor & Port of Vancouver Economic Benefits.
Regional analysis (includes Oregon and Washington)
75,800 total jobs (direct, indirect/induced)
Output of $7.3 billion
Labor income of $3.8 billion
Annual local/state tax payments of $346 million
Annual federal tax payments of $246 million
$1 in port tax generates $6 in added local tax payments
Source: Oregon Ports Presentation
Location: I:\Research\samba\nerc\Completed Projects\Ports\Draft Report and Slides
Source: Port of Portland

14. EMPLOYMENT IN TRANSPORT & OTHER SECTORS

15. Oregon Industries Return to Pre-Recession Level
Percent Change in Employment Since Jan 2008 through Nov 2014
Spreadsheet:
Location: I:\Research\Shares\nerc\PROJECTS\Presentations\Slides Library and Supporting Data\Spreadsheets\Labor\Oregon & Calif Industrial Employment- Winners & Losers through Nov 2014
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
-Marisol
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

16. Oregon Industries Yet to Fully Recover
Percent Change in Employment Since Jan 2008 through Nov 2014
Spreadsheet: Oregon & Calif Industrial Employment- Winners & Losers through Oct 2014
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Location: I:\Research\Shares\nerc\PROJECTS\Presentations\Slides Library and Supporting Data\Spreadsheets\Labor
-Marisol
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

17. Estimated Employment Transportation, Oregon
Employed (January Oct 2014)
Source: Employment and Wages by Industry (QCEW), Oregon Employment Department QualityInfo.org and NERC
Sheet: Trans & Wareh
Location: I:\Research\Shares\nerc\PROJECTS\Presentations\Slides Library and Supporting Data\Spreadsheets\Transportation\Oregon Transportation
Source: Oregon Employment Department, Employment and Wages by Industry (QCEW), NERC

18. Employment by Industry, Oregon
Employed (January June 2014)
Source: Employment and Wages by Industry (QCEW), Oregon Employment Department QualityInfo.org
Sheet: QCEW
Location: I:\Research\Shares\nerc\PROJECTS\Presentations\Slides Library and Supporting Data\Spreadsheets\Transportation Oregon\Oregon Transportation
Source: Oregon Employment Department, Employment and Wages by Industry (QCEW)

19. Employment by Industry, Oregon
All Employees (January June 2014)
Source: Employment and Wages by Industry (QCEW), Oregon Employment Department QualityInfo.org
Sheet: QCEW
Location: I:\Research\Shares\nerc\PROJECTS\Presentations\Slides Library and Supporting Data\Spreadsheets\Transportation Oregon\Oregon Transportation
Source: Oregon Employment Department, Employment and Wages by Industry (QCEW)

20. EXPORTS OREGON

21. -Marisol Josh Lehner (graph send by email).
“This is something I’ve been meaning to dig into a bit more for years: the commodity flow survey by Census. What I’m trying to show is that a lot of focus is on exports, but the flow of commodities within the US, from Oregon to other states, is much much much bigger. The value of shipments that start in Oregon and go out of state is equivalent to nearly half of state GDP while exports are not quite 10% of state GDP.
I think that our relative drop in ranking across states has a lot to do with Intel’s expansion, with its exponential contribution to state GDP. Our exports are pushed around by Intel shipping stuff to their Asian plants as well. It’s back on the upswing in 2014, so our relative position among state is improving, while 2012 is something of a low point here.”

22. Notes: Maybe you find this interesting (from Josh Lehner OEA blog)
For a graph explanation:
On net, the increased exports over the past year are entirely due to high-technology products, largely destined for Asian ports (63% of the gain) or Costa Rica (17%). Of course this masks over the changes in other industries. Strong gains in machinery, transportation equipment and food products were offset by declines in agricultural, chemicals and waste products.
Source: Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

23. Questions and Discussion