1. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 1 Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty Daniel Lerch Post Carbon Cities Program Manager April 2008 - Ireland and UK www.postcarboncities.net

2. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 2 Local gov’t guidebook released Fall 2007: www.postcarboncities.net

3. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 3 This Presentation 1. What’s happening? This presentation... CLIMATEENERGY Global WarmingPeak Oil (and Gas and Coal and...) ‏ 2. What are the problems for cities? 3. What are cities already doing? 4. What’s the best course of action? “Climate Uncertainty”“Energy Uncertainty” Reducing GHG emissions.Identifying vulnerabilities. Stop making the problems worse, and prepare for the effects that can’t be avoided. (“Four Next Steps” and “Five Principles”) ‏

4. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 4 What’s happening? Demand is RISING......but Supply is LEVELLING, and will soon fall.  Developing world is rapidly industrializing (China, India)‏  Western world demand growth  The “easy oil” is gone  Logistical (financial) limits to what can ultimately be produced The fundamental factors of oil supply and demand are changing.

5. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 5 What’s happening? U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Overview 2006, p.64 * The old assumptions no longer fit... 2008 2 Jan 2008 oil hits $100/barrel

6. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 6 What’s happening?...which means we can no longer rely on the usual ‘experts'... http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/07/news/economy/cheap_oil/index.htm

7. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 7 What’s happening?...but fortunately, more and more leaders do see the problems ahead. omrpublic.iea.org/currentissues/MED_OMR06.pdf

8. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 8 What’s happening?...but fortunately, more and more leaders do see the problems ahead. Energy demand has "outstripped new supply,” Bush told reporters. "That's why there's high price." - 16 January 08, "Saudis balk at Bush's oil advice," Los Angeles Times. "There is no doubt demand for oil is outpacing supply at a rapid pace, and has been for some time now," [General Motors Chairman Rick] Wagoner said. - 15 January 08, "Time's up for petrol cars, says GM chief," Sydney Morning Herald www.chron.com/CDA/archives/archive.mpl?id=2007_4465038

9. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 9 What’s happening? 1. Production of the “easy oil” has peaked. 2. The “difficult oil” can’t make up the difference. The oil problem in two basic points:

10. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 10 What’s happening? 1. The “easy oil” has peaked. Discoveries peaked in the 1960s, production peaked in 2005. Source: Colin Campbell, Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas

11. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 11 What’s happening? Campbell, C. 2004. History and Projection of World Oil (and Gas Liquids) Production, 2004 Conventional Oil Unconventional Oil 2. The “difficult oil” can’t make up the difference. Supply and 'Business-As-Usual Demand' Gap

12. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 12 What’s happening? Declining Supply + Rising Demand = Higher Oil Prices + Oil Price / Supply Volatility What does this mean for decision-makers?: “As oil peaking is approached, relatively minor events will likely have more pronounced impacts on oil prices and futures markets.” -- Hirsch, R., et al. “Peaking of World Oil Production.” Report for the U.S. Dep’t of Energy, Feb. 2005.

13. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 13 What’s the problem? So, if this is the issue... Peak oil means both higher oil prices and volatility in supply and price. 1. Over-dependence on oil 2. Short-term challenges 3. Long-term challenges...how is this specifically a problem for CITIES?

14. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 14 Why is this a problem for cities? Oil is an essential input: We are dependent on oil as a raw material. “Oil makes it possible to transport food to the...megacities of the world. “Oil also provides the plastics and chemicals that are the bricks and mortar of contemporary civilization...” –Daniel Yergin, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power. 1991. Oil is an assumed input: Systems assume stability in oil supplies and prices. Oil is a non-interchangeable input (short-term): Alternatives to oil are still marginal. 1. Over-dependence on oil Peak oil means both higher oil prices and volatility in supply and price.

15. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 15 Why is this a problem for cities? 2. Short-term challenges Unexpected price changes in oil products (gasoline, asphalt)‏ Peak oil means both higher oil prices and volatility in supply and price.

16. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 16 Why is this a problem for cities? 2. Short-term challenges Unexpected price changes in other products (push for ethanol = higher meat prices)‏ Unexpected price changes in oil products (gasoline, asphalt)‏ Peak oil means both higher oil prices and volatility in supply and price. …higher fuel prices and energy costs; higher transportation costs…

17. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 17 Occasional shortages (Hurricane Katrina and North Carolina)‏ Why is this a problem for cities? 2. Short-term challenges Unexpected price changes in other products (push for ethanol = higher meat prices)‏ Unexpected price changes in oil products (gasoline, asphalt)‏ Peak oil means both higher oil prices and volatility in supply and price.

18. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 18 Why is this a problem for cities? 3. Long-term challenges How will the global economy adjust? (global trade flows) How will this impact regional and local economies? (relative advantage; provisioning systems) Peak oil means both higher oil prices and volatility in supply and price.

19. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 19 Why is this a problem for cities?  set meaningful budgets  make long-range land use and transportation plans  serve residents and the local business community...with such uncertainty surrounding the most important material to our global, regional and local economies? How can cities... “ Energy Uncertainty ” Peak oil means both higher oil prices and volatility in supply and price.

20. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 20 Why is this a problem for cities? Peak oil... when?

21. CLIMATE Post Carbon Cities - 21 What’s happening? GHG concentrations are up dramatically, and RISING. The average global temperature is rising, with uncertain consequences.  Prior and continuning industrialization.  15 years since Earth Summit, little to show for it.  Local effects? Economic effects?  Trigger points? Feedback loops? We are changing some of the fundamental factors that influence global climate. ? ?

22. CLIMATE Post Carbon Cities - 22 Why is this a problem for cities? Short-term challenges: –Mitigation: Stop making it worse! –Adaptation: Deal with first effects. Long-term challenges: –Adaptation: How will local and regional climates change? –Adaptation: How will this affect global/regional/local economy? “ Climate Uncertainty ” Dependence: –Ecosystem services. –Economy and society are subsets of the environment.

23. CLIMATE Post Carbon Cities - 23 Overdependence on oil Short-term challenges (unexpected price changes, occasional shortages)‏ PEAK OIL Long-term challenges (how will global, regional and local economies respond? how can municipalities budget and plan?)‏ 1. Oil prices depend on oil flows. 2. Oil is more difficult to produce. 3. Oil supply is less stable. 4. OPEC can’t make up the slack anymore. WHAT’S THE ISSUE? WHY IS THIS A PROBLEM? Dependence on global ecosystem Short-term challenges (dealing with first effects)‏ GLOBAL WARMING Long-term challenges (long-term changes to climates and economies)‏ 2. We don’t know exactly how the global ecosystem will change in the long term. 1. We know that some effects are inevitable in the short term. WHAT’S THE ISSUE? WHY IS THIS A PROBLEM? What’s the problem? The “Climate-Peak Convergence” “Energy and Climate Uncertainty ”

24. CLIMATE Post Carbon Cities - 24

25. CLIMATE Post Carbon Cities - 25 What are cities already doing?

26. CLIMATE Post Carbon Cities - 26 What are cities already doing? As of April 2008, over 800 mayors --from all 50 states and representing the 10 largest cities– have signed.

27. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 27 What are cities already doing?

28. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 28 What are cities already doing? Internal ReportPublic Report Burnaby, B.C. (January 2006)‏ Portland, Ore. regional gov’t (April 2006)‏ Hamilton, Ont. (February 2006)‏ Sebastopol, Calif. (April 2007)‏ Portland, Ore. (May 2007)‏

29. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 29 What are other cities already doing? Portland, Ore. Oakland, Calif. Bloomington, Indiana Resolution which creates......a Task Force. San Francisco, Calif. Austin, Tex. Brattleboro, Vt. Spokane, Wash. Haines, Alaska Franklin, N.Y. Sebastopol, Calif.

30. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 30 Portland Peak Oil Task Force

31. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 31 Portland Peak Oil Task Force

32. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 32 Portland Peak Oil Task Force

33. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 33 Portland Peak Oil Task Force Excerpted from “Descending the Oil Peak: Navigating the Transition from Oil and Natural Gas,” Portland (Oregon) Peak Oil Task Force, March 2007; available online at http://www.portlandonline.com/osd. 1. Reduce total oil and natural gas consumption by 50 percent over the next 25 years. 2. Inform citizens about peak oil and foster community and community-based solutions. 3. Engage business, government and community leaders to initiate planning and policy change. Reduce oil & NG consumption Provide leadership View the full report at www.postcarboncities.net

34. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 34 Portland Peak Oil Task Force 4. Support land use patterns that reduce transportation needs, promote walkability and provide easy access to services and transportation options. 5. Design infrastructure to promote transportation options and facilitate efficient movement of freight... 6. Encourage energy-efficient and renewable transportation choices. 7. Expand building energy-efficiency programs and incentives for all new and existing structures. Land use & transporta- tion Efficiency, conservation View the full report at www.postcarboncities.net

35. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 35 Portland Peak Oil Task Force 8.Preserve farmland and expand local food production and processing. 9. Identify and promote sustainable business opportunities. 10.Redesign the safety net and protect vulnerable and marginalized populations. 11.Prepare emergency plans for sudden and severe shortages. Economic development Support system Emergency planning View the full report at www.postcarboncities.net

36. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 36 Portland Peak Oil Task Force What has Portland BEEN doing? Most green buildings in US (LEED) Highest per capita hybrid auto ownership in US Transit ridership up 85% Bike trips over bridges quintupled Vehicle miles traveled decreased 7% per capita Gasoline sales down 13% per capita Household energy down 5% per capita City energy-efficiency projects saving $2.6M/yr Recycling rate more than tripled Portland Office of Sustainable Development

37. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 37 Portland Peak Oil Task Force Portland 2010 Goal: 10% below 1990 levels Emissions level required to avoid severe climate disruption 2032 Goal: 50% reduction in fossil fuels Portland Office of Sustainable Development

38. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 38 Post Carbon Cities guidebook The “Five Long-term Principles”

39. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 39 Post Carbon Cities guidebook 1. Deal with transportation and land use (or you may as well stop now).

40. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 40 Post Carbon Cities guidebook 1. Deal with transportation and land use (or you may as well stop now). [continued...]

41. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 41 Post Carbon Cities guidebook 2.Tackle private energy consumption. LEED Platinum university building, Arizona Zero-energy housing, Germany

42. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 42 Post Carbon Cities guidebook 3.Attack the problems piece-by-piece and from many angles.

43. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 43 Post Carbon Cities guidebook 4.Plan for fundamental changes... and make fundamental changes happen.

44. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 44 Post Carbon Cities guidebook 5.Build a sense of community.

45. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 45 Post Carbon Cities guidebook 5.Build a sense of community.

46. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 46 Post Carbon Cities guidebook

47. ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 47 Post Carbon Cities book and programDaniel Lerch, Program Manager www.postcarboncities.netdaniel@postcarbon.org $30.00 USD/CAD Quantity discounts available