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Published byZachariah Jolliffe Modified over 9 years ago
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(NYSE: BREW) TEAM MEMBERS: Purvi Mittal Leiyi Huang Harout Sahakian
Rakesh Venkatayogi
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AGENDA Business Overview Macro-Economic & Industry Overview Technical Analysis Financial Ratios Valuation Recommendation
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CRAFT BREW ALLIANCE – INTRODUCTION
Business: A craft beer brewing company with a unique alliance between three craft beer brands Operates two segments: Beer related operations: Brewing and sale of craft beers and cider from six breweries Pubs operations: Operates 5 pubs for brand building Has master distribution partnership with Anheuser–Busch Market Cap $281mm Employees ~725 Annual production Capacity (000’s) 1,075 barrels Source: Company website and 10K_2013
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GID Presentation to NBWA Board (DRAFT 1)
December 7 DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY Merger Integration and Building Business Model Foundation National Portfolio Strategy Development and Initial Market Introduction National Portfolio Strategy Growth and Value Creation Volume Growth 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Kona Merger Sale of FSB Omission Launch Square Mile Launch Redhook / Widmer Merger Source: CBA Investor Presentation
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GID Presentation to NBWA Board (DRAFT 1)
December 7 BRANDS Launched in 1981 in Seattle Distributed in all 50 states Launched in 1984 in Portland Distributed in all 50 states Launched in 1994 in Hawaii Distributed in 36 states Launched in 2012 in Portland First gluten free beer Launched in 2013 Distributed in 10 states and expanding Source: Company website and 10K_2013
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GID Presentation to NBWA Board (DRAFT 1)
December 7 BREWING FACILITIES Washington Brewery Annual / Max Capacity (000’s) 220 / 280 New Hampshire Brewery Annual / Max Capacity (000’s) 215 / 280 Oregon Brewery Annual / Max Capacity (000’s) 630 / 650 Hawaii Brewery Annual / Max Capacity (000’s) 10 / 10 Source: Company website and 10K_2013
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GID Presentation to NBWA Board (DRAFT 1)
December 7 ANHEUSER–BUSCH PARTNERSHIP Ownership Structure Master Distribution Agreement Distribution of Kona, Widmer Brothers, Redhook, Omission and Square Mile in all states, territories and possessions of the US Distributor Agreement has a term that expires on December 31, 2018, subject to automatic renewal CBA pays margin fees, invoicing, staging and cooperage handling fees, and inventory manager fees Source: Company website and 10K_2013
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GID Presentation to NBWA Board (DRAFT 1)
December 7 HISTORICAL FINANCIAL ANALYSIS Net Sales Gross Margin Compounded growth of ~11% , primarily because of shift in mix towards packaged, which has a higher selling price per barrel than draft During 2012 and 2013, product mix, variable costs, supply chain challenges and pubs pressured gross margin Expected 5‐year gross margin expansion of 500 to 700 basis points Source: 10K_2013 and investor presentation Note: does not include alternating proprietorship revenue
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MACRO & INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
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BEER INDUSTRY CHARACTERISTICS
Success Factors Global Beer Market Distribution By Volume Effective Quality Control Marketing of Products Control of distribution networks Establishment of brand names Differentiation Factors Packaging Price Taste Ingredients Source: IBISWorld. Craft Beer Production in the US. August 2013; MarketLine Industry Profile: Global Beer. August 2013.
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CONSUMER EXPENDITURE ON BEER – % CHANGE YOY
Source: Passport. Euromonitor International. Consumer Expenditure on Alcoholic Drinks. February 2014.
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THE CRAFT Growth In Craft Breweries 2011 – 1,970 2012 – 2,347 2013 – 2,483 Growth in Volume of Craft Beer 2012 – 15% 2013 – 18% Source: MarketLine. Craft Beer: A Fast Growing Market. September 2013;
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SWOT ANALYSIS FOR BREW Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats
Distribution to retailers through A-B agreement Ability to test products in pubs before new launches Quality control by using local suppliers Weaknesses Majority ownership by Anheuser Busch limits some activities Shipping costs associated with Kona brand products Concentration in the Pacific Northwest Opportunities New product launches Expansion in domestic and international markets Consolidation in the industry Threats Changes in consumer preferences Increases in regulation or taxes, especially the excise tax Public relations and brand image
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FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Source: Yahoo Finance
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FINANCIAL RATIOS COMPARABLE COMPANIES RATIOS* CRAFT BREW RATIOS
*Ratios calculated by taking averages of our comparable companies Source: Brew 10K
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FINANCIAL RATIOS COMPARABLE COMPANIES RATIOS CRAFT BREW RATIOS
*Ratios calculated by taking averages of our comparable companies Source: Brew 10K
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Anheuser-Busch 20% Boston Beer Co. Inc. 30% Carlsberg 20%
COMPARABLE COMPANIES Anheuser-Busch 20% Boston Beer Co. Inc. 30% Carlsberg 20% Molson Coors Co. 15% Heineken 15%
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Estimated Share Price $15.21 COMPARABLE VALUATION P/E – 15%
Forward P/E – 20% EV/Revenue – 15% EV/EBITDA – 15% Forward EV/EBITDA – 20% P/B – 15% Estimated Share Price $15.21
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ASSUMPTIONS Assumptions 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014P 2015P
2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P Sales Growth % 5.6% 13.3% 13.5% 5.8% 13.0% 10.0% 8.0% Excise Tax Rate ( % of Sales) 6.4% 6.5% 7.3% 7.0% 6.9% Gross Margin (% Sales) 20.6% 23.9% 28.1% 27.5% 26.1% 27.1% 29.1% 30.1% 31.1% SG&A Margin (% Sales) 18.7% 21.3% 24.7% 24.1% 23.5% 23.0% CapEx 5.5% 4.0% 3.8% D&A ($) 5.0% 4.5% 4.2% 5.3% 6.0% 6.2% Interest Expenses 9.5% 6.1% 3.9% 4.3% 4.1%
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DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW ANALYSIS
WACC Cost of debt 6.0% Marginal tax rate 40.0% Cost of debt after tax shield 3.6% Cost of equity Risk-Free Rate (rf) 2.7% Market Risk Premium (rm-rf) 7.0% CAPM Beta 1.24 CAPM Cost of Equity 11.4% BREW Realized Return 21.1% Cost of Equity 12.4% Capital structure Debt 4.0% Market Cap 96.0% Total 100.0% Weighted average cost of capital 12.0% Business risk premium 1.0% Discount Rate 13.0% FCF Build 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P EBIT 7,868.9 12,243.7 15,806.5 19,861.0 24,916.0 Less: Taxes (2,918.0) (4,645.0) (6,049.9) (7,649.8) (9,642.4) Less: Capex (8,698.0) (9,089.4) (9,816.5) (11,159.8) (11,662.0) Less: Change in NWC 81.9 (1,314.9) (1,157.1) (1,249.7) (1,687.1) Plus: D&A 10,872.5 12,677.3 14,466.5 16,739.8 19,027.5 Unleveled FCF 7,207.3 9,871.7 13,249.4 16,541.4 20,952.1 Terminal Value Assumptions 4.0% Discounted rate (WACC) 13.01% Terminal Value Discounted period (t) 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 Discount Factor 0.88 0.78 0.69 0.61 0.54 PV of FCFs (in thousands) 6,377.4 7,729.3 9,179.4 10,140.6 11,365.6 131,150.8 % of Total EV 3.6% 4.4% 5.2% 5.8% 6.5% 74.5% PV of FCFs Enterprise Value Net Debt Equity Value ($ thousands) Shares Perpetuity Method 44,792.3 175,943.1 3,357.6 172,585.5 18, Price $ 9.10
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Perpetuity Growth Rate
SENSITIVITY Enterprise Value - WACC vs. Perpetuity Growth Rate Perpetuity Growth Rate 9.1 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% WACC 10.0% 11.8 12.5 13.3 14.3 15.4 16.8 18.5 11.0% 10.2 10.8 11.4 12.1 12.9 13.8 14.9 12.0% 9.0 9.4 9.9 10.4 11.0 11.7 12.4 13.0% 8.0 8.4 8.7 9.6 10.1 10.6 14.0% 7.2 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.8 9.2 15.0% 6.6 6.8 7.0 8.2 16.0% 6.0 6.2 6.3 6.5 7.3
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Add to Watch List RECOMMENDATION Price Weight DCF $9.10 75% Comparable
$15.21 25% Estimated Price $10.62 Current Price $14.64 Add to Watch List
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