1. The European Chemical Industry: Cefic Chemicals Trends Report
Dr Moncef HADHRI
Economic Affairs
Industrial Policy Department
April 14, 2015

2. The Ifo World Economic Climate remained stable in Q1-2015
Since 1981 the Ifo Institute has conducted a quarterly survey in numerous countries on business cycle developments and other economic factors in the experts’ home countries.
The January 2015 survey received responses from 1,071 experts in 117 countries
Economic climate is the arithmetic average of present and expected economic situation
The world economy showed little dynamism, but there
are significant regional differences

3. The EU Economic Sentiment Indicator improves further in March 2015
The (ESI) is calculated as a weighted average of five confidence indicators, industry (40%), services (30%), consumers (20%), construction (5%) and retail trade (5%).
The ESI are still well above its long term average since September 2013
The ESI indicator increased in March 2015 by 0.9 points in the EU to (by 1.6 points to in the euro area)
Source: European Commission survey and cefic analysis
The ESI rose significantly in Italy, Germany and Spain

4. Confidence in industry and services increased marginally
Confidence improved in consumers and retail trade while it dropped in construction
Confidence in industry and services increased marginally
Source: European Commission survey and cefic analysis

5. EU chemical business climate deteriorated in the first quarter of 2015
Both situation at present and expectation deteriorated in Q1-2015

6. EU chemical confidence dropped in the first quarter of 2015
Source: European Commission survey and cefic analysis
Production expectations contributed largely to this drop

7. The other business climate components deteriorated further in Q1-2015
Source: European Commission survey and cefic analysis
Selling price expectations registered a spectacular drop

8. Capacity utilisation declines slightly in Q4-2014, down from 81
Capacity utilisation declines slightly in Q4-2014, down from 81.2% in Q3-2014
It remains 3.9% points below the post-crisis peak (Q1-2011),
and nearly closed to the long term average

9. Capacity utilisation: Uneven developments within the European Union
Capacity utilisation remained unchanged in Germany,
positive development in the UK

10. However, Poland and France are very closed to their pre-crisis level
Capacity utilisation in the UK, Spain and Italy still far below the peak level
However, Poland and France are very closed to their pre-crisis level

11. Employment slightly decreased in Q4-2014
Employment stabilised in Q and gradually increased since end 2013
9.1% below
Employment slightly decreased in Q4-2014

12. Employment went up in 2014 by 1.6% compared to 2013
It is still 6.4% below the 2008 level (pre-crisis level)

13. Output declined in Jan 2015 by 0.3% compared to Jan-2014
Stagnant growth for the EU chemicals sector (+0.2% in 2014 compared to 2013)
7.1% below
Output declined in Jan 2015 by 0.3% compared to Jan-2014

14. Output growth: Uneven developments within the EU chemical industry
Significant output growth in specialty and consumer chemicals

15. EU chemicals prices fall by 1.8% in 2014 compared to 2013
Petrochemicals prices has the deepest dip in Jan 2015 (-11%, y-o-y)

16. EU chemicals sales down by 1.1% in 2014 compared to 2013
Sales followed a negative trend since 2012

17. EU chemicals exports were €137.7 bn in 2014
R basi
Down by €851 million compared to 2013 (-0.6%)

18. Delta Extra-EU exports, (2014 vs 2013, €mn)
R basi
EU exports to the USA dramatically declined in petrochemicals

19. EU chemicals imports were €93.6 bn in 2014
R basi
Up by nearly €3.3 bn in 2014 compared to 2013 (+3.6%)

20. Delta Extra-EU imports, (2014 vs 2013, €mn)
R basi
EU imports from Russia considerably raised in petrochemicals

21. Extra-EU chemicals trade surplus of €44.1 billion in 2014
R basi
A trade deficit in EU petrochemicals for the first time

22. Extra-EU chemicals trade surplus of €44.1 billion in 2014
R basi
Rest of Europe (including Russia) and the USA account
for more than 1/3 of the total EU surplus

23. 2014 surplus: Down by €4.1 bn compared to 2013
R basi
EU trade with Rest of Europe and US contributed largely to this drop

24. Back-up Slides
R basi

25. Confidence in industry and services increased marginally
Confidence improved in consumers and retail trade while it dropped in construction
Confidence in industry and services increased marginally

26. EU chemical confidence improved in March 2015
Thanks to the chemicals order books which improved significantly

27. EU chemicals sales by sub-sector (year 2013)

28. Output growth: Uneven developments within the EU chemical industry

29. Petrochemicals prices has the deepest dip

30. Chemicals Trends Report: Top Indicators
About the Chemicals Trends Report
The Cefic Chemicals Trends Report is issued each month to members of Cefic – the European Chemical Industry Council – which includes chemical industry associations and member companies.
The report (slides) provides a snapshot of the chemical industry performance in the 28 member states of the European Union and is based on available data released by Eurostat. The scope of the one-page summary report distils Eurostat data into four areas: chemicals production, trade, prices and total sales. Chemicals Trends Report (CTR)
 About Cefic
Created in 1972, Cefic is the forum and the voice of the chemical industry in Europe. We represent 29,000 large, medium and small chemical companies in Europe, which directly provide 1.2 million jobs and account for 17% of world chemical production. To learn more about Cefic, visit its website at
Dr. Moncef Hadhri
Economic Affairs
Tel: