1. printed by www.postersession.com CONIPMO (Constructive Infrastructure Protection Model): ACCURATELY ESTIMATING HOW MUCH IT WILL COST TO SET UP NETWORK DEFENSES The world as we know it has become network- based as Systems-of-Systems interoperate to provide functionality undreamt of just a decade ago. Based on the complexity and volatility ofthe underlying technology used to build these systems, they are extremely vulnerable to network attacks. Firms spend millions annually to ward off these attacks. The purpose of the CONIPMO effort is to provide those involved in such efforts with the tools needed to accurately estimate these costs in terms of the engineering effort involved. We plan to generate the first release of a prototype version of both the network defense and anti- tamper model in 2007. Development of both models assumes that our collaborative efforts will supply us with the critiques and data necessary. The schedule assumes that actual data will become available so that we can accurately calibrate the models. This calibration would be done using the approach that was used for COCOMO II. While the schedule is aggressive, we believe it is achievable assuming that the effort receives a priority and that funding for it is not interrupted. The following significant findings relative to the use of the CONIPMO model were developed based upon the experiments that we conducted: 1. 1.Verified experimentally that it is feasible to employ the CONIPMO mathematical model to develop accurate estimates of the costs of network infrastructure protection and anti-tamper throughout the ISO/IEC 15288 systems engineering life cycle. 2. 2.Verified via experts that it was desirable to keep the network infrastructure and anti-tamper models separate. This was deemed desirable because different groups use the models. 3. 3.Verified experimentally that the CONIPMO model could be used to support conduct of parametric trade studies involving a variety of alternative network defense (perimeter defense, defense-in-depth, etc.) and anti-tamper strategies (hardware only protect, software only protect, protect-in-depth, etc.). 4. 4.Verified statistically that the model’s cost drivers could be treated as independent random variables. We ran statistical tests to show that there was either limited or no cross-correlation between drivers. 5. 5.Verified experimentally that the USC Bayesian calibration algorithms could be used with some slight modifications to develop an accurate calibration of the model. 6. 6.Validated via our market survey that a large potential market exists for network infrastructure protection estimating products and services. 7. 7.Validated via the acquisition of letters of endorsement that we could get organizations to commit pilot projects and supply project data should we continue pursuit of the CONIPMO model.. The following major conclusions were developed based upon the analysis conducted during our initial model development efforts: 1. 1.Concluded that sufficient interest exists on the part of government, industry and academic organizations to perfect and calibrate the CONIPMO model using data and feedback from pilot projects. 2. 2.Acquired letters of commitment from three governmental, two contractor and one academic organization to support our Phase II effort with pilot projects, data and calibration support. 3. 3.Concluded that there is a large and growing market for the potential products and services. Both our market survey and our discussions with potential commercialization partners validated this assertion. 1. 1.D.J. Reifer, “A Model for Estimating the Cost of Securing the Network Infrastructure and Anti-Tamper,” submitted to Crosstalk, 2006. 2. D.J. Reifer, Making the Software Business Case, Addison- Wesley, 2001. 3. B. Boehm, et. al, Cost Estimation with COCOMO II, Prentice-Hall, 2000. PROVIDE PILOT PROJECTS AND DATA IN EXCHANGE FOR A LICENSE TO USE THE PROTOTYPE CONIPMO MODEL. Generate accurate estimates of the time and engineering effort needed to secure the network infrastructure defenses. Be able to validate the estimate using actual project experience. Be able to predict the effort involved should anti-tamper be a consideration. Provide a model with the “touch and feel” of other models that are part of the COCOMO family of estimating packages. BACKGROUND GOALS ESTABLISHED FOR THE CONIPMO EFFORT COCOMO-LIKE MATHEMATICAL MODEL NEXT STEPS HOW TO GET INVOLVED BIBLIOGRAPHY This work was sponsored by the Missile Defense Agency