1. Denver’s Activity-Based Model Project: Status Report Erik Sabina, P.E., DRCOG Thomas Rossi, Principal, Cambridge Systematics TRB Transportation Planning Applications Conference, Daytona Beach, Florida, May 6-9, 2007.

2. Status Software “spine”, end to end Some draft components integrated Model estimation data complete –Point demographic data –Transit skim comparison to survey data Model estimation underway Integration of PopSyn in progress Packaging GISDK code for GUI call

3. Approach Services and components

4. Comparison to Other Approaches Choice structure similar to Sacramento –Minimize risk: it’s worked before Differences: –TAZ to point level (Sacramento uses TAZ to parcel to point) –Software approach very different –More work in-house

5. IRM Model Structure Data Produced by Models Model Process by DRCOG Model Process by the Cambridge Systematics Team Input (from DRCOG) Zonal Socioeconomic Data (Households, Employment, Parcels) Land Use Model List of Persons with Characteristics Person Day Models List of Person Tours, Extra Stop Purposes Tours by Purpose with Destination, Mode, Time-of-Day Auto and Transit Person and Vehicle Trip Tables by Time-of-Day Highway and Transit Assignment Highway and Transit Networks Logsum Variables Accessibility Measures Network Level-of-Service Tour Models Trip Models Long-Term Models

6. Key Lessons – Selling Your Project Sell, sell, sell (to everyone you can think of!) A project “champion” is indispensable (and several champions is better) Develop project goals, and stand on them

7. Key Lessons – Project Management Project managers need to be oxymorons –Flexible but insistent –Demanding but patient –Cost conscious, but willing to spend to get it right You won’t complete your project over everyone’s dead bodies Evaluate your strengths and weaknesses

8. Key Lessons – Teamwork Pick your project partners carefully –You’ll be working closely with them for a long time Big team: may be better, will be slower (and more expensive) Doing a lot in-house is slow –But important to your understanding –And fun, if you like that sort of thing

9. Cambridge Systematics IT Seven components Design consultation DRCOG IT Three components Software “spine”: GUI, Database, communications GISDK elements CS Estimation team Seven components DRCOG oversight/assistance DRCOG Estimation team Three components, plus PopSyn CS Calibration Team By component Overall model DRCOG Calibration Team Calibration data Model run support

10. Key Lessons – Project Design Simplicity! Produce “products in a stream” Rebuilding a trip-based model is hard, too Make your best schedule estimate, and double it Think carefully about project goals – Vision Phase

11. Key Lessons – Software Custom software takes a long time to produce! A good IT group really helps You’ll need to program better Definitely do iterative software development

12. Key Lessons – Data Estimation data takes a long time to produce! Be VERY nice to your sources of disaggregate data

13. Key Challenges Getting the team to agree on approach Do enough work in-house (but not too much) – paying now vs. paying later Designing a model (and application software) that can be operated –By us, by consultants, by planning partners Dealing with staff turnover

14. More Key Challenges Drinking from the information fire hose –Data, software, choice models, etc. Knowing when to stop at each step (anything can be improved) Tying into EVERYTHING

15. Things You Should Do Differently Think, but don’t over-think at the start Think over your collaborative ambitions Start developing estimation data now (I mean today) –Have consultants review it as you go Decide in advance the acceptability of options (trade-offs) and what you’re willing to pay to choose a superior option

16. Contact Information Erik Sabina, esabina@drcog.org, 303-480- 6789esabina@drcog.org Tom Rossi, trossi@camsys.com, 617-354- 0167trossi@camsys.com