1. Comparative Analysis Metro/County Contexts MAKING CONNECTIONS SITES Tom Kingsley The Urban Institute March 1, 2007

2. Knowledge of context important uIn program planning and interpreting results uExamples: - Setting employment targets in fast growing vs. sluggish or declining labor markets - Addressing isolation in metros where segregation is high vs. low - Planning homeownership promotion in markets where prices are high and acceleratIng vs. low and declining

3. Compare conditions/trends in the 1990s with those since 2000 uData from many sources: BLS/LAUS; Census/ACS; FBI and CDC; HMDA uFive major topics - Economy and labor market - Demographic change - Income and poverty - Social conditions - Housing and mortgage markets

4. Economy and labor market Growth slowed since 1990s - San Antonio & Des Moines fastest growth now vs. Oakland & Denver in 1990s - Both periods: Seattle high, Milwaukee & Louisville low

5. Demographic Change Hispanic share growing everywhere - Fastest where most concentrated: San Antonio & Denver

6. Income and Poverty Disturbing increase – child poverty - Highest rates: Milwaukee, Providence, San Antonio - Largest increases: Providence, Milwaukee, Louisville, Denver

7. Income and Poverty Broad range in segregation by race, income - Milwaukee, Hartford among most segregated metros in U.S. - Seattle, San Antonio, Des Moines below average, 100 metros

8. Social Conditions Improvement teen birth share – all sites - Recent declines same pace as in 1990s - 2001 shares highest in San Antonio, Milwaukee, Denver - Fastest improvement: Louisville, Oakland, Indianapolis, Denver

9. Social Conditions Ranking some sites reasonably consistent across categories - Examples; Des Moines, Seattle at high end; Milwaukee, at low end - But some have varied placements: Oakland, Hartford

10. Housing and mortgage markets Homeownership rate up everywhere - Highest levels (above 2/3) in Des Moines, Hartford, Louisville - Fastest increases: Denver, Des Moines, Hartford, Indianapolis

11. Housing and mortgage markets Home purchase affordability under duress - Oakland home value 6.8 times income; San Antonio only 2.2 - MC average 2004 ratio 3.7 in 2004, up from 2.8 in 2000

12. Housing and mortgage markets Again some place consistently across categories – others not - Consistent: Des Moines at high end; Oakland at low end