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New Zealand economic outlook Grant Spencer Reserve Bank of New Zealand September 2012 Eriksens Actuarial Auckland, 25 September 2012.

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Presentation on theme: "New Zealand economic outlook Grant Spencer Reserve Bank of New Zealand September 2012 Eriksens Actuarial Auckland, 25 September 2012."— Presentation transcript:

1 New Zealand economic outlook Grant Spencer Reserve Bank of New Zealand September 2012 Eriksens Actuarial Auckland, 25 September 2012

2 ...and this presentation is not financial advice Off the record please…

3 Trading partner GDP growth (annual) Weaker global outlook

4 Financial markets supported by Central Bank actions

5 Reflected in lower bond yields 5

6 Global risk appetite is supporting NZD 6

7 Which is holding back export growth 7 Export volumes

8 Global developments are slowing NZ’s progress 8 Weaker world demand and commodity prices High NZD putting pressure on export sector Offshore funding for banks easier but still expensive

9 Consumption stronger but savings continue to recover 9 Household saving rate and consumption

10 Reflected in weak credit – strong deposits Annual bank credit and deposit growth 10

11 Strong recovery in residential investment 11 Residential investment

12 Stronger house prices – for a period 12 Annual house price inflation

13 Government consolidating Fiscal impulse (share of nominal GDP) 13

14 Net result: gradual recovery in GDP growth 14 GDP growth (annual)

15 Inflation pressures remain moderate 15 Consumer price inflation

16 Interest rates remain flat 16 90-day interest rate

17 End of presentation

18 Public debt overhang remains a major issue 18 Gross government debt as percent of GDP (IMF WEO, April 2012)

19 European bond rates: convergence -divergence

20 Canterbury rebuild profile Canterbury rebuild profile (share of potential GDP)


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