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Published byDesiree Hamon Modified over 10 years ago
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New Zealand economic outlook Grant Spencer Reserve Bank of New Zealand September 2012 Eriksens Actuarial Auckland, 25 September 2012
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...and this presentation is not financial advice Off the record please…
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Trading partner GDP growth (annual) Weaker global outlook
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Financial markets supported by Central Bank actions
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Reflected in lower bond yields 5
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Global risk appetite is supporting NZD 6
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Which is holding back export growth 7 Export volumes
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Global developments are slowing NZ’s progress 8 Weaker world demand and commodity prices High NZD putting pressure on export sector Offshore funding for banks easier but still expensive
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Consumption stronger but savings continue to recover 9 Household saving rate and consumption
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Reflected in weak credit – strong deposits Annual bank credit and deposit growth 10
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Strong recovery in residential investment 11 Residential investment
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Stronger house prices – for a period 12 Annual house price inflation
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Government consolidating Fiscal impulse (share of nominal GDP) 13
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Net result: gradual recovery in GDP growth 14 GDP growth (annual)
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Inflation pressures remain moderate 15 Consumer price inflation
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Interest rates remain flat 16 90-day interest rate
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End of presentation
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Public debt overhang remains a major issue 18 Gross government debt as percent of GDP (IMF WEO, April 2012)
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European bond rates: convergence -divergence
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Canterbury rebuild profile Canterbury rebuild profile (share of potential GDP)
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