1. San Bernardino County Mountain Region Population Growth Monitoring & Road Capacity Study Presented to 2012 ITE Western District Annual Meeting, Santa Barbara, CA June 25 th, 2012 Paper by: Noel Casil, PE (Presenter) Neelam Sharma, TE

2. Overview of Project Study Area u San Bernardino County u Mountain Region u Seven Communities u Bear Valley u Crest Forest u Hilltop u Lake Arrowhead u Lytle Creek u Oak Glen u Wrightwood Lytle Creek Bear Valley Crest Forest Lake Arrowhead Hilltop Oak Glen Wrightwood San Bernardino County Mountain Region

3. URS Project Team

4. Purpose and Need u A need to implement certain SB County 2007 GP goals relative to the evacuation of the Mountain Communities during emergencies. u Help the County determine appropriate densities for the development of the Mountain Planning Region given the limitations for emergency evacuation. u Study, analyze and provide recommendations for 7 issue areas.

5. Components of the Study u Current and Projected Population u Transportation and Circulation System u Mountain Area Safety Taskforce (MAST) Evacuation Routes u Traffic Assessment u Population Report u Conclusions/Recommen dations Input Data Maps Survey Counts Planning Data Study Results Land Use Summary Emergency Evacuation Traffic Data Facility Review Capacities Population Data Existing Projected Traffic Analysis Speed Time Tiering Mountain Region Future growth Densities Consistency w/ Plan

6. Recent History of the Mountain Region Grand Prix Fire, 2003Old Fire, 2003

7. Key Transportation Facilities

8. Traffic Assessment Challenge Extensive Study Area 3 Analysis Scenarios 7 Unique Communities Meet Project Schedule and Allocated Cost Not reliant on esoteric Modeling packages Meet client’s expectations

9. A Simple Approach Step 1 - Define Evacuation Routes and Properties Step 1 Step 2 Step 2 - Gather and Translate Population Data Step 3 Step 3 – Baseline Conditions (LOS from Florida Tables) Step 4 Step 4 – Evacuation Analysis (Speed from HCS) Step 5 Step 5 – Evacuation Tiers used to minimize gridlock

10. Key Analysis Assumptions u Reasonable segment travel time for baseline was based on distance and posted speed limit relationship u HCS was used to determine analysis scenario speed using vehicle demand u “Tiering” of evacuating vehicles was developed to attain progression through the emergency routes

11. Sample Results: Hilltop 2030 Hilltop Evac Route Distance (mls) 1 Evac Route Travel Time (mins) 2 SR330SR18 Evacuation Routes Segment Evac Vehicles Evac Speed (mph) Evac Time (mins) Evac Vehicles Evac Speed (mph) Evac Time (mins) SR330SR18 to Highland14.3163,096 19.6 440-- SR18 SR138 to 49th Street2.130--3,096--* SR138 to SR1892.9440--3,096 9.5 19 SR189 to Daley Canyon 2.740--3,096 9.6 17 Daley Canyon to SR 173 1.320--3,096 9.9 8 SR173 to Kuffle1.110--3,096 10 7 Kuffle to SR3305.861,39338.693,096 19.3 18 SR330 to Green Valley 2.9461932.2561932.25 Green Valley to SR389.85150--0-- Green Valley Lake Road North of SR184.511619 19.8 14619 19.8 14 Live Oak DriveSR18 to SR3301.64310 23.4 4310 23.4 4 Total Evacuation Time (longest segment) ~ 72 minutes* * HCS could not output results due the heavy demand. Therefore, total travel time can not be listed.

12. Sample Results: Hilltop “Tiers” Hilltop Evac Route Distance (mls) 1 Evac Route Travel Time (mins) 2 SR330SR18 Evacuation Routes Segment Evac Vehicles Evac Speed (mph) Evac Time (mins) Evac Vehicles Evac Speed (mph) Evac Time (mins) SR330SR18 to Highland14.316 270025340-- SR18 SR138 to 49th Street2.13 0--164953.22 SR138 to SR1892.944 0--1649257 SR189 to Daley Canyon 2.74 0--1649256 Daley Canyon to SR 173 1.32 0--1649253 SR173 to Kuffle1.11 0--1649253 Kuffle to SR3305.86 121541.5816493510 SR330 to Green Valley 2.94 54026.27330404 Green Valley to SR389.8515 0--0-- Green Valley Lake Road North of SR184.511 54025113302511 Live Oak DriveSR18 to SR3301.64 270254165254 Total Evacuation Time (longest segment) ~ 60 minutes~ 46 minutes For both SR330 and SR18, two tiers would be required to evacuate the Projected 2030 Population. Total time required would be approximately two hours. Specific Evacuation plans would be determined by the Emergency Response Teams.

13. Take aways from the study u The high quality of life in the Mountain Region should not be degraded by growth u Given reasonable amount of time orderly evacuation can be accomplished u Each potential emergency is unique and key field decisions and tactics is to be decided by the Incident Commander

14. Thank You for Your time