1. PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE CLIMATE INDICES IN SOUTH AMERICA AND SÃO PAULO STATE, BRAZIL Amanda Sabatini Dufek Tércio Ambrizzi Rosmeri Porfirio da Rocha Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of São Paulo, Brazil

2. OBJECTIVES Some indices based on daily data of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature will be calculated for present climate (1960-1990) over South America and São Paulo State, Brazil, based on climate simulations data from a global climate model (HadAM3) and a regional climate model (RegCM3) and also using observational data from many available stations in the region. The main goal of this work is to compare the simulated and observed indices over South America and São Paulo State, Brazil, during the period 1960-1990.

3. DATA SIMULATION DATA The HadAM3 global climate model has a horizontal resolution of 1.25 of latitude by 1.875 of longitude and 19 vertical hybrid coordinates levels. The simulation data is from 1960 to 1990. The RegCM3 regional climate model was integrated over South America with a spatial resolution of 60km and 23 vertical sigma levels (top of the model at 50hPa). The simulation was done for the same period of the HadAM3. The atmospheric initial boundary conditions and the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) for the RegCM3 simulation were provided by the HadAM3 model. OBSERVATIONAL DATA Precipitation and Temperature maximum and minimum daily data obtained from the Agronomic Institute of Campinas (IAC), Department of Water and Electric Energy (DAEE), National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) and Água Funda station.

4. INDICES Maximum Temperature Warm days (wd) – Percentage of days with Tmax>90th percentis (%) Cold days (cd) – Percentage of days with Tmax<10th percentis (%) Minimum Temperature Warm nights (wn) – Percentage of days with Tmin>90th percentis (%) Cold nights (cn) – Percentage of days with Tmin<10th percentis (%) Precipitation prcptot – represents the total annual precipitation amount (mm) r95p – represents the amount of rainfall falling above the 95th percentiles (mm) rx5day – is the maximum precipitation in a year falling over 5 day (mm) cdd – is the length of the longest dry spell in a year (day) cwd – defines the longest wet spell in a year (day)

5. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE INDICES CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS ANNUAL TRENDS MODELXOBS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE INDICES CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS ANNUAL TRENDS MODELXOBS PRECIPITATION INDICES CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS ANNUAL TRENDS MODELXOBS RESULTS

6. RESULTS – MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE INDICE: COLD DAYS CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS HadAM3 Simulation x Observation RegCM3 Simulation x Observation + = 10 o = 3 (se,co) + = 11 o = 2 (co)

7. RESULTS – MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE INDICE: COLD DAYS CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS HadAM3 Simulation x Observation RegCM3 Simulation x Observation + = 6 o = 0 + = 3 o = 3

8. RESULTS – MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE INDICE: WARM DAYS CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS HadAM3 Simulation x Observation RegCM3 Simulation x Observation + = 10 o = 3 (su,se) + = 11 o = 2 (su,co)

9. RESULTS – MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE INDICE: WARM DAYS CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS HadAM3 Simulation x Observation RegCM3 Simulation x Observation + = 4 o = 2 + = 5 o = 1

10. RESULTS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE INDICES CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS ANNUAL TRENDS MODELXOBS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE INDICES CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS ANNUAL TRENDS MODELXOBS PRECIPITATION INDICES CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS ANNUAL TRENDS MODELXOBS

11. RESULTS – MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE INDICE: COLD DAYS ANNUAL TREND MODELXOBS ANNUAL TREND MODELXOBS HadAM3 Simulation x Observation RegCM3 Simulation x Observation OBS.SIM.OBS.SIM. ++(oo) = 10 o+(+o) = 3 (su,se) ++(oo) = 7 o+(+o) = 6

12. RESULTS – MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE INDICE: COLD DAYS ANNUAL TREND MODELXOBS ANNUAL TREND MODELXOBS HadAM3 Simulation x Observation RegCM3 Simulation x Observation OBS.SIM.OBS.SIM. ++(oo) = 1 o+(+o) = 5 ++(oo) = 2 o+(+o) = 4

13. RESULTS – MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE INDICE: WARM DAYS ANNUAL TREND MODELXOBS ANNUAL TREND MODELXOBS HadAM3 Simulation x Observation RegCM3 Simulation x Observation OBS.SIM.OBS.SIM. ++(oo) = 2 (co,ne) o+(+o) = 11 ++(oo) = 6 o+(+o) = 7

14. RESULTS – MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE INDICE: WARM DAYS ANNUAL TREND MODELXOBS ANNUAL TREND MODELXOBS HadAM3 Simulation x Observation RegCM3 Simulation x Observation OBS.SIM.OBS.SIM. ++(oo) = 4 o+(+o) = 2 ++(oo) = 4 o+(+o) = 2

15. RESULTS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE INDICES CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS ANNUAL TRENDS MODELXOBS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE INDICES CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS ANNUAL TRENDS MODELXOBS PRECIPITATION INDICES CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS ANNUAL TRENDS MODELXOBS

16. RESULTS – MINIMUM TEMPERATURE INDICE: COLD NIGHTS CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS HadAM3 Simulation x Observation RegCM3 Simulation x Observation + = 12 o = 2 (su,no) + = 11 o = 3 (su,se)

17. RESULTS – MINIMUM TEMPERATURE INDICE: COLD NIGHTS CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS HadAM3 Simulation x Observation RegCM3 Simulation x Observation + = 6 o = 0 + = 2 o = 4

18. RESULTS – MINIMUM TEMPERATURE INDICE: WARM NIGHTS CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS HadAM3 Simulation x Observation RegCM3 Simulation x Observation + = 13 o = 1 (su) + = 14 o = 0

19. RESULTS – MINIMUM TEMPERATURE INDICE: WARM NIGHTS CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS HadAM3 Simulation x Observation RegCM3 Simulation x Observation + = 6 o = 0 + = 6 o = 0

20. RESULTS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE INDICES CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS ANNUAL TRENDS MODELXOBS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE INDICES CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS ANNUAL TRENDS MODELXOBS PRECIPITATION INDICES CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS ANNUAL TRENDS MODELXOBS

21. RESULTS – MINIMUM TEMPERATURE INDICE: COLD NIGHTS ANNUAL TREND MODELXOBS ANNUAL TREND MODELXOBS HadAM3 Simulation x Observation RegCM3 Simulation x Observation OBS.SIM.OBS.SIM. ++(oo) = 10 o+(+o) = 4 (su,no,ne) ++(oo) = 8 o+(+o) = 6 (su,se,ne)

22. RESULTS – MINIMUM TEMPERATURE INDICE: COLD NIGHTS ANNUAL TREND MODELXOBS ANNUAL TREND MODELXOBS HadAM3 Simulation x Observation RegCM3 Simulation x Observation OBS.SIM.OBS.SIM. ++(oo) = 4 o+(+o) = 2 ++(oo) = 1 o+(+o) = 5

23. RESULTS – MINIMUM TEMPERATURE INDICE: WARM NIGHTS ANNUAL TREND MODELXOBS ANNUAL TREND MODELXOBS HadAM3 Simulation x Observation RegCM3 Simulation x Observation OBS.SIM.OBS.SIM. ++(oo) = 12 o+(+o) = 2 (no,ne) ++(oo) = 12 o+(+o) = 2 (su,no)

24. RESULTS – MINIMUM TEMPERATURE INDICE: WARM NIGHTS ANNUAL TREND MODELXOBS ANNUAL TREND MODELXOBS HadAM3 Simulation x Observation RegCM3 Simulation x Observation OBS.SIM.OBS.SIM. ++(oo) = 4 o+(+o) = 2 ++(oo) = 5 o+(+o) = 1

25. RESULTS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE INDICES CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS ANNUAL TRENDS MODELXOBS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE INDICES CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS ANNUAL TRENDS MODELXOBS PRECIPITATION INDICES CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS ANNUAL TRENDS MODELXOBS

26. RESULTS – PRECIPITATION INDICE: PRCPTOT CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS HadAM3 Simulation x Observation RegCM3 Simulation x Observation + = 13 o = 3 (su,co) + = 11 o = 5 (su,se,co,no)

27. RESULTS – PRECIPITATION INDICE: PRCPTOT CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS HadAM3 Simulation x Observation RegCM3 Simulation x Observation + = 129 o = 34 + = 110 o = 53

28. RESULTS – PRECIPITATION INDICE: R95P CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS HadAM3 Simulation x Observation RegCM3 Simulation x Observation + = 12 o = 4 (su,se,co,no) + = 10 o = 6 (su,se,co,no)

29. RESULTS – PRECIPITATION INDICE: R95P CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS HadAM3 Simulation x Observation RegCM3 Simulation x Observation + = 91 o = 72 + = 84 o = 79

30. RESULTS – PRECIPITATION INDICE: RX5DAY CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS HadAM3 Simulation x Observation RegCM3 Simulation x Observation + = 11 o = 5 (su,se,co) + = 7 o = 9

31. RESULTS – PRECIPITATION INDICE: RX5DAY CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS HadAM3 Simulation x Observation RegCM3 Simulation x Observation + = 102 o = 61 + = 48 o = 115

32. RESULTS – PRECIPITATION INDICE: CDD CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS HadAM3 Simulation x Observation RegCM3 Simulation x Observation + = 9 o = 5 (su,no,ne) + = 10 o = 5 (su,se,co,no,ne)

33. RESULTS – PRECIPITATION INDICE: CDD CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS HadAM3 Simulation x Observation RegCM3 Simulation x Observation + = 144 o = 15 + = 108 o = 52

34. RESULTS – PRECIPITATION INDICE: CWD CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS HadAM3 Simulation x Observation RegCM3 Simulation x Observation + = 5 (su,co,ne) o = 9 + = 1 (co) o = 14

35. RESULTS – PRECIPITATION INDICE: CWD CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS HadAM3 Simulation x Observation RegCM3 Simulation x Observation + = 109 o = 50 + = 64 o = 96

36. RESULTS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE INDICES CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS ANNUAL TRENDS MODELXOBS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE INDICES CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS ANNUAL TRENDS MODELXOBS PRECIPITATION INDICES CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELXOBS ANNUAL TRENDS MODELXOBS

37. RESULTS – PRECIPITATION INDICE: PRCPTOT ANNUAL TREND MODELXOBS ANNUAL TREND MODELXOBS HadAM3 Simulation x Observation RegCM3 Simulation x Observation OBS.SIM.OBS.SIM. ++(oo) = 9 o+(+o) = 7 ++(oo) = 8 o+(+o) = 8

38. RESULTS – PRECIPITATION INDICE: PRCPTOT ANNUAL TREND MODELXOBS ANNUAL TREND MODELXOBS HadAM3RegCM3 Observation ++(oo) = 140 o+(+o) = 23 ++(oo) = 65 o+(+o) = 98

39. RESULTS – PRECIPITATION INDICE: R95P ANNUAL TREND MODELXOBS ANNUAL TREND MODELXOBS HadAM3 Simulation x Observation RegCM3 Simulation x Observation OBS.SIM.OBS.SIM. ++(oo) = 9 o+(+o) = 7 ++(oo) = 9 o+(+o) = 7

40. RESULTS – PRECIPITATION INDICE: R95P ANNUAL TREND MODELXOBS ANNUAL TREND MODELXOBS HadAM3RegCM3 Observation ++(oo) = 81 o+(+o) = 82 ++(oo) = 64 o+(+o) = 99

41. RESULTS – PRECIPITATION INDICE: RX5DAY ANNUAL TREND MODELXOBS ANNUAL TREND MODELXOBS HadAM3 Simulation x Observation RegCM3 Simulation x Observation OBS.SIM.OBS.SIM. ++(oo) = 8 o+(+o) = 8 ++(oo) = 9 o+(+o) = 7

42. RESULTS – PRECIPITATION INDICE: RX5DAY ANNUAL TREND MODELXOBS ANNUAL TREND MODELXOBS HadAM3RegCM3 Observation ++(oo) = 81 o+(+o) = 82 ++(oo) = 73 o+(+o) = 90

43. RESULTS – PRECIPITATION INDICE: CDD ANNUAL TREND MODELXOBS ANNUAL TREND MODELXOBS HadAM3 Simulation x Observation RegCM3 Simulation x Observation OBS.SIM.OBS.SIM. ++(oo) = 8 o+(+o) = 8 ++(oo) = 8 o+(+o) = 8

44. RESULTS – PRECIPITATION INDICE: CDD ANNUAL TREND MODELXOBS ANNUAL TREND MODELXOBS HadAM3RegCM3 Observation ++(oo) = 110 o+(+o) = 53 ++(oo) = 77 o+(+o) = 86

45. RESULTS – PRECIPITATION INDICE: CWD ANNUAL TREND MODELXOBS ANNUAL TREND MODELXOBS HadAM3 Simulation x Observation RegCM3 Simulation x Observation OBS.SIM.OBS.SIM. ++(oo) = 11 o+(+o) = 5 (su,se,no,ne) ++(oo) = 6 o+(+o) = 10

46. RESULTS – PRECIPITATION INDICE: CWD ANNUAL TREND MODELXOBS ANNUAL TREND MODELXOBS HadAM3RegCM3 Observation ++(oo) = 96 o+(+o) = 67 ++(oo) = 69 o+(+o) = 94

47. CONCLUSIONS In general, the RegCM3 and HadAM3 models present very similar results, however, the behavior of some indices was better simulated by the HadAM3 model, specially in the region of São Paulo State, Brazil, and for the precipitation indices. Most of the correlations between simulation and observation for the indices have a weak positive relationship. For the most of the indices, the results of the annual trends were not as good as the correlations. The models do not simulate well the precipitation and the temperature indices. The warm night, based on minimum temperature, was the index better simulated by the RegCM3 and HadAM3 when compared to the other annual temperature indices. The RegCM3 worst simulation was for the CWD index.