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THE CLAREMONT COLLEGES LIBRARY. The Claremont Colleges Library Beyond the Books: Using Statistical Analysis to Evaluate & Revise An Approval Plan Profile.

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Presentation on theme: "THE CLAREMONT COLLEGES LIBRARY. The Claremont Colleges Library Beyond the Books: Using Statistical Analysis to Evaluate & Revise An Approval Plan Profile."— Presentation transcript:

1 THE CLAREMONT COLLEGES LIBRARY

2 The Claremont Colleges Library Beyond the Books: Using Statistical Analysis to Evaluate & Revise An Approval Plan Profile JOHN MCDONALD ALCTS AS RESEARCH & STATISTICS PROGRAM NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA JUNE 25, 2011

3 June 25, 2011 The Claremont Colleges Library CC BY-NC-ND 2.0: http://www.flickr.com/photos/axis/280925758/ Too many books about cats coming on approval?

4 June 25, 2011 The Claremont Colleges Library Time to revise the plan…

5 June 25, 2011 The Claremont Colleges Library This profile-ese looks like Greek to me

6 June 25, 2011 The Claremont Colleges Library It probably won’t end well…

7 June 25, 2011 The Claremont Colleges Library There has got to be a better way

8 June 25, 2011 The Claremont Colleges Library What was wrong at Claremont (assumptions, right or wrong) No attention to plan, in some areas Plan not addressing our needs Not enough auto-shipped books Too many slips Slips don’t match orders Orders coming from outside the plan

9 June 25, 2011 The Claremont Colleges Library Why does it matter? Plan should take care of ‘easy’ buys Plan should provide targeted notifications Plan should limit out the ‘easy’ non-buys Librarians should spend time on ‘tougher’ decisions

10 June 25, 2011 The Claremont Colleges Library Could data show us the answer?

11 June 25, 2011 The Claremont Colleges Library Dig up some data Downloaded records from GOBI Over 50,000 books profiled by YBP in 2006 Merged with our catalog data on purchase patterns Included circulation statistics Deduped print/cloth, excluded eBooks Coded each book with Autoship/Slip/Exclude status Coded each book with Purchase Status for Claremont

12 June 25, 2011 Claremont ActionsBooks Not Ordered, No Slip20,418 Not Ordered, Slip16,059 Ordered, No Slip5,300 Ordered, Slip3,665 Autoship4,839 The Claremont Colleges Library Books Published in 2006, in GOBI Actual Outcomes

13 June 25, 2011 MethodBooks Autoship11,000 Not Ordered, No Slip28,000 Not Ordered, Slip8,000 Ordered, No Slip1,000 Ordered, Slip2,000 The Claremont Colleges Library Books Published in 2006, in GOBI Best Case Outcomes

14 Analysis of Variance, Predicting Purchase Number of obs =44457R-squared =0.1032 Root MSE0.3669Adj R-squared =0.1016 SourcePartial SSdfMSFProb > F Model687.704808.596363.860 slip0.83410.83386.190.0128 ybp_select1.03250.20641.530.1756 content_level0.82550.16501.230.2939 country2.62240.65544.870.0006 slip*ybp_select22.79554.559133.870.0000 slip*discipline47.60185.950244.200.0000 slip*content_level2.38440.59604.430.0014 slip*country0.35940.08980.670.6146 ybp_select*content4.651110.42283.140.0003 ybp_select*country12.982200.64914.820.0000 content*country23.481131.806213.420.0000 Residual5973.277443760.1346 The Claremont Colleges Library

15 June 25, 2011 Best model of purchase patterns included just a few variables and explained 10% of variance: Country of Publication Slip Sent+YBP Select (interaction effect) Slip Sent+Discipline (interaction effect) YBP Select+Discipline (interaction effect) YBP Select+Country (interaction effect) Content Level+Discipline (interaction) Content Level+Country (interaction) *simpler model included just 3 variables

16 June 25, 2011 Best model of usage patterns included just a few variables and explained 6% of variance: Discipline Slip Sent+Discipline YBP Select+Discipline YBP Select+Content Level Interesting to note: Slip Sent+Discipline and YBP Select+Discipline were both predictors for purchase and usage. The Claremont Colleges Library

17 June 25, 2011 A few easy changes can really improve the plan Adjust Non-subject parameters o Limit Country of Origin Include YBP Select Analyze LC Class and Disciplines o Move Slips to Autoship when appropriate o Eliminate Slips when not likely to result in purchase or usage The Claremont Colleges Library

18 June 25, 2011 The Claremont Colleges Library “Likelihood of purchase” chart

19 June 25, 2011 The Claremont Colleges Library Translate to Profile format, part 1…

20 June 25, 2011 The Claremont Colleges Library Translate to Profile format, part 2…

21 June 25, 2011 The Claremont Colleges Library YBP Action Claremont Action Books% AUTOSHIP 1,4573.3% SLIP 9,64422.2% EXCLUDE 26,16460.10% Total 37,26585.60% The Good…

22 June 25, 2011 The Claremont Colleges Library The Not so Bad… YBP ActionClaremont ActionBooks% EXCLUDESLIP - LC SUBJECT19654.51% EXCLUDESLIP - FORMAT3710.85% EXCLUDESLIP - CONTENT LEVEL2500.57% EXCLUDESLIP - PRICE2130.49% EXCLUDESLIP - BINDING40.01% EXCLUDESLIP - REFERENCE TYPE40.01% EXCLUDESLIP - PUBLISHER10.00% Total 28086.45%

23 June 25, 2011 The Claremont Colleges Library YBP ActionClaremont ActionBooks% SLIPEXCLUDE - LC SUBJECT12842.95% SLIPEXCLUDE - COUNTRY2340.54% SLIPEXCLUDE - PUBLISHER650.15% SLIPEXCLUDE - CONT LVL280.06% SLIPEXCLUDE - LANG150.03% SLIPEXCLUDE - FORMAT50.01% Total 16313.75% The Not so Bad…

24 June 25, 2011 The Claremont Colleges Library YBP ActionClaremont ActionBooks% AUTOSHIPEXCLUDE - LC SUBJECT1360.00% AUTOSHIPSLIP - LC SUBJECT1040.16% AUTOSHIPEXCLUDE - COUNTRY690.01% AUTOSHIPEXCLUDE - PUBLISHER140.31% AUTOSHIPSLIP - FORMAT90.03% AUTOSHIPSLIP - PRICE60.01% AUTOSHIPSLIP - CONTENT LEVEL50.02% AUTOSHIPEXCLUDE - FORMAT30.24% AUTOSHIPEXCLUDE - CONT LVL10.01% Total 3470.80% The Not so Bad…

25 June 25, 2011 The Claremont Colleges Library The Problem… YBP ActionClaremont ActionBooks% EXCLUDEAUTOSHIP7261.67% SLIPAUTOSHIP7571.74% Total 1,4833.41%

26 June 25, 2011 The Claremont Colleges Library What went wrong

27 June 25, 2011 The Claremont Colleges Library Ask why on the “Likelihood of purchase” chart

28 June 25, 2011 The Claremont Colleges Library Essentials were essential… Books Profiled, 2006All YBP Books Claremont Purchased Books Select DesignationTitlesPriceTitlesPrice None1,011$52,256838$45,547 Basic-Essential902$33,387528$18,873 Basic-Recommended9,467$380,2392,950$121,557 Research-Essential642$46,558389$23,425 Research-Recommended17,221$1,538,1206,152$438,098 Specialized3,938$533,761704$61,816 Supplementary17,100$1,038,7042,243$126,674

29 June 25, 2011 Tune Up needed Receive all “ESSENTIAL” Books, except in very obvious areas where we have no collecting history Loosen up book/slip designations on targeted LC sub-classes Look at non-subject parameters that may be (unintentionally) trumping LC content Have librarians work with faculty on additional areas to include The Claremont Colleges Library

30 MethodBooks Autoship8,100 Not Ordered34,765 Slip15,200 The Claremont Colleges Library Books Published in 2010, in GOBI Tuned Up Revised Plan Outcomes

31 June 25, 2011 MethodBooks Autoship11,000 Not Ordered, No Slip28,000 Not Ordered, Slip8,000 Ordered, No Slip1,000 Ordered, Slip2,000 The Claremont Colleges Library Books Published in 2006, in GOBI Best Case Outcomes

32 June 25, 2011 Lessons learned Publishing output fluctuates by year o Analyze more than a year of data at a time o Especially at the more granular LC subclass levels Profiling is an art o Use logic as much as data Details are essential Listen to your vendor No need to be risk averse The Claremont Colleges Library

33 June 25, 2011 The Claremont Colleges Library http://www.zazzle.com/statistics_means_never_having_to_say_youre_certai_tshirt-235669028746970031

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