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Published byFernando Lodge Modified over 9 years ago
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Stanley Securities September 23, 2010
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David Lin, Investment Grade Credit Research Shengbiao Luo, Credit Hybrids Sales Casey Wang, Market Risk Management George Wang, Credit Hybrids Trading Peilin Zhang, Quantitative Credit Strategies The World Class Team
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Agenda The Objective The solution – downgrade contingent protection Cashflow Payoff Scenarios Cost Analysis Suitability and limitation Appendix – Term Sheet
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The Objective Offer counterparty default protection against deep in the money FX Forward: Counterparty: UJB Financial Notional: 500MM EUR Time to maturity: 3 years Contractual forward price: $1.024/EUR Spot USD/EUR rate: $1.22/EUR Current Exposure: $98MM Need protection against UJB’s gradual financial distress
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The Solution Rating Contingent Credit Default Swap (RCCDS) Credit protection contingent on rating downgrade Notional of default payoff contingent on mark to market value of FX forward $0.5MM savings in protection cost
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Cash flows Risk Leg Premium Leg Time UJB downgrades
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Payoff Scenario
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RCCDS is Cost Effective Notional ($MM) Protection PV ($MM) Upfront price points Running Spread (bps) CDS (40% recovery) 981.61.6557 CDS (25% recovery) 982.02.0772 Full protection on expected FX forward MV 98*2.12.1475 RCCDS 98*1.61.6356 25% reduction in premium compared with full protection * Based on current MV of FX forward, future exposure may vary
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Suitability and Limitations No protection against out of blue default May need to remake the FX Forward trade Cost: $50K
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$500,000 to your bottom line
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Term Sheet Protection Seller: Stanley Securities Protection Buyer: Rauxon Energy Co. Trade Date: 10/1/2010 Expiration Date: 9/30/2013 Reference Entity: UJB Financial Seller Pays: Payoff: (FX Forward Market Value) + × (1 – Recovery) Credit Event: Downgrade, followed by bankruptcy Settlement: Cash (USD) Buyer pays: 56 bps on $98MM notional Standardized quarterly schedule
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