1. Migration and Development – Changing Paradigms: The Turkish case Prof. Dr. Ahmet Icduygu MiReKoc, Migration Research Program Department of International Relations Koç University, Istanbul Migration and Development: A Euro-Mediterranean Perspective organised by the Hellenic Migration Policy Institute (IMEPO) and the OECD Development Centre Rhodes, Greece, on 26-27 April 2007

2. Causes and Consequences of Emigration Causes of Emigration Causes of Emigration Economic hardship Economic hardship Social / political / cultural hardship Social / political / cultural hardship Consequences of Emigration Consequences of Emigration - easing Economic hardship Economic hardship Social / political / cultural hardship Social / political / cultural hardship

3. What is Development? Consequences of Emigration Consequences of Emigration - Easing / Improvement Economic hardship Economic hardship Social / political / cultural hardship Social / political / cultural hardship Economic aspects Economic aspects Social aspects Social aspects Political aspects Political aspects Cultural aspects Cultural aspects

4. History of Turkish Emigration Four Distinct Periods in Turkish Emigration 1961 – 1974 : Massive labor migration to Western Europe 1961 – 1974 : Massive labor migration to Western Europe 1974 – 1980 : Decline of labor migration to Western Europe and the beginning of labor emigration to Arab countries 1974 – 1980 : Decline of labor migration to Western Europe and the beginning of labor emigration to Arab countries 1980s +: Labor flows to Arab countries + migration to Europe 1980s +: Labor flows to Arab countries + migration to Europe 1990s + : Labour migration to the CIS countries + Labor 1990s + : Labour migration to the CIS countries + Labor flows to Arab countries + migration to Europe. flows to Arab countries + migration to Europe.

5. History of Turkish Emigration Emigration to Europe (1961-2006) 1961 – 1975 : Labor Migration 1961 – 1975 : Labor Migration 1975 - present : + Family Reunification and Marriage Migration 1975 - present : + Family Reunification and Marriage Migration 1980 - present : + Clandestine Migration and Asylum Seeking 1980 - present : + Clandestine Migration and Asylum Seeking

6. Turkish Labor Migration by Destination, 1961-2005 Host Countries #%#%#%#%#%#%#% Europe 790017 97.513426 12.82612 0.69647 2.8 10465 9.316561 9.1842728 42.4 Arab Countries 2441 0.374181 70.6423208 97.7 208274 60.4 32195 28.557974 31.9798273 40.2 Australia 5806 0.72647 2.52478 0.61324 0.4 515 0.5176 0.112946 0.7 CIS Countries - - -115 0.065521 58.089623 49.3155259 7.8 Others 12235 1.514792 14.14875 1.1125238 36.3 4256 3.817533 9.6178929 9.0 Total 810499100105046100433173 100 3445981001129521001818671001988135100 1996-20002001-2005Total1961-19741975-19801981-19901991-1995

7. Turkish Emigration by Destination, 1961-2005

8. Turkish Asylum-Seekers by Destination, 1981-2005 Destination #%#%#%#%#%#% Europe4562018579717555798.614122697.910753497.265573498.7 Canada7550.419191.31.324512.22.251250.8 Australia7800.49280.63320.320400.3 USA9840.61990.13300.315130.2 Total178076100.0144272100.0110647100.0664412100.0 2001-20051981-20051981-19851986-19901991-19951996-2000

9. Turkish Migrant Stock Abroad, mid-1980s, mid-1990s and mid-2000s Mid-1980s Mid-1990sMid-2000s Countryx 1,000% % % Austria 75.03.2136.44.2130.04.2 Belgium 72.53.179.52.450.01.6 Denmark 22.00.937.01.135.01.1 France 146.16.3198.96.1208.06.7 Germany 1,400.459.92,049.963.463.41,912.261.6 Netherlands 156.46.7167.05.1100.23.2 Sweden 22.00.925.00.814.00.4 Switzerland 51.02.273.02.279.52.5 UK 10.00.429.00.652.01.3 Other European countries 42.01.887.02.7120.01.9 Total Europe 1,997.485.42,852.788.32,700.987.1 Arab countries 200.08.6127.03.9107.03.4 Australia 35.01.545.01.450.01.6 CIS countries 0.0 50.01.536.01.2 North American countries 80.03.4120.03.7160.05.15.1 Other countries 25.01.135.01.150.01.6 Total2,337.4100.03,229.71003,103.9100.0

10. Economic and Social Consequences of Turkish Emigration: Gaining from Emigration Emigration in Turkey results in a mixture of benefits and costs. Economic consequences Economic consequences Socio-political and cultural consequences Socio-political and cultural consequences

11. Economic Consequences Two basic approaches: Optimistic: the “balanced growth” (equilibrium) model Optimistic: the “balanced growth” (equilibrium) model a positive impact and an increase in the national balance of trade domestic investment, and economic growth. a positive impact and an increase in the national balance of trade domestic investment, and economic growth. Pessimistic : the “asymmetric growth” (conflict) model the displacement of labour to industrialized countries distorts and slows down the development in the migrants’ areas of origin. the displacement of labour to industrialized countries distorts and slows down the development in the migrants’ areas of origin.

12. Economic Consequences The beneficial effects of workers’ remittances The beneficial effects of workers’ remittances The role of the remittances in the perennial foreign-exchange crisis The role of the remittances in the perennial foreign-exchange crisis The investments made by migrants – limited The investments made by migrants – limited the maintenance of the family left behind and investment in equipment, building, car etc. the maintenance of the family left behind and investment in equipment, building, car etc. a positive impact on household welfare a positive impact on household welfare improvements in the living conditions of migrants improvements in the living conditions of migrants

13. Economic Consequences The reduction in unemployment and underemployment The reduction in unemployment and underemployment helped to reduce unemployment pressures in Turkey. helped to reduce unemployment pressures in Turkey. The acquisition of skills and the process of return migration The acquisition of skills and the process of return migration State: skills failed to match Turkey’s need in human resources State: skills failed to match Turkey’s need in human resources Individual: the same mismatch engenders personal disillusionment. Individual: the same mismatch engenders personal disillusionment.

14. Gaining from Emigration: Economic Consequences State activities to channel remittance savings to maximize economic growth State activities to channel remittance savings to maximize economic growth Workers’ joint stock companies Workers’ joint stock companies Village Development Cooperatives Village Development Cooperatives State Industry and Workers’ Investment Bank in 1975 State Industry and Workers’ Investment Bank in 1975

15. Remittance Inflows, Exports, and Imports in Turkish Economy, 1964-1985 RemittanceExportsImports (x Million USD) (x Million USD) (x Million USD) 19648411537 6,3 0,1 196569.846457264,6 0,6 1966115.349071850,6 0,8 19679352368557,4 0,6 1968107.349676440 0,6 1969140.653780153,3 0,7 197027358894875,8 1,5 1971471.4677117195,4 2,7 19727408851563109,1 3,3 1973118313172086153,8 4,1 197414251532377763,5 3,6 197513131401473839,3 2,7 197698219605129 31 1,8 197793017535797 23 1,5 197898322884599 42,5 1,4 1979169422615069 60,3 2,2 1980207129107909 41,4 3 1981249047038933 58,9 3,4 1982214057468843 69,1 3,2 1983151357289235 43,1 2,4 19841807713410757 49,9 3 19851714825511344 55,5 2,5 Year Remittance as % of Trade Deficit Remittance as % of GNP

16. Remittance Inflows, Exports, and Imports in Turkish Economy, 1985-2004 RemittanceExportsImports (x Million USD) (x Million USD) (x Million USD) 19851714825511344 55,5 2,5 19861634745711105 44,8 2,1 198710211019014158 25,7 1,2 198817761166214335 66,4 2 198930401296015792 107,3 2,8 199032431362622302 37,4 2,2 199128191367221038 38,3 1,9 199230081489122872 37,7 1,9 199329191561029428 21,1 1,6 199426271839023270 53,8 2 199533272197535709 24,2 2 199635423244643627 31,7 1,9 199741973264748599 26,3 2,2 199853563122045922 36,4 2,6 199945292932540671 39,9 2,5 200045603137554503 19,7 2,3 200127863500041399 43,5 1,9 200219363575351554 12,3 1,1 200317104706869340 7,7 0,7 20048046312197540 2,3 0,2 Year Remittance as % of Trade Deficit Remittance as % of GNP

17. Remittance Inflows in Turkish Economy in Million USD, 1964-2004

18. Remittances as % of GNP, 1964-2004

19. Gaining from Migration: Social Consequences Emigration is an important source for social change Changes in generation and gender relationships Changes in generation and gender relationships The changing status of women The changing status of women The positive impact on the roles and relationships of parents and children The positive impact on the roles and relationships of parents and children The improvement of the migrants’ quality of life The improvement of the migrants’ quality of life

20. Gaining from Migration: Socio- political Consequences Socio-political changes More respect for human rights and democracy More respect for human rights and democracy Dual citizenship rights, the changing status of military service for emigrants Dual citizenship rights, the changing status of military service for emigrants

21. Unintended Consequences of the Turkish Emigration Cultural-revivalist tendencies among the Turkish migrants abroad Cultural-revivalist tendencies among the Turkish migrants abroad – Muslim fundamentalism and Kurdish nationalism – Muslim fundamentalism and Kurdish nationalism Problems related to return migration and second- generation returnees Problems related to return migration and second- generation returnees – R eintegration and adoptation problems The decrease in the population growth but increase in east-to-west and rural-to-urban migration The decrease in the population growth but increase in east-to-west and rural-to-urban migration

22. Naturalization of Turkish Citizens by Country of New Citizenship (x 1,000) Country1991-1993 1994-1996 1994-19961997-19992000-20021991-2002 Austria4.76.67.818.337.4 Belgium7.213.017.531.769.4 Denmark1.12.65.45.915.0 France2.88.814.513.839.9 Germany20.397.0129.1159.4405.8 Netherlands29.587.639.910.2167.2 Sweden5.87.64.94.222.5 Switzerland1.43.66.26.217.4 UK0.20.52.02.55.2 Total73.0227.3 251.2778.8

23. Concluding Remarks Changing Paradigms of Migration and Development 1960-1980: Statism Import-substitution State intervention Protectionism Remittances: more important Economic consequences: more important 1980-onwards: Liberalism Free trade Free trade Stock exchange Stock exchange Remittances: less important (growing importance of FDI) Social/political/cultural consequences: more important

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