1. fabiencousteau.org Coastal Vulnerability Model: Mapping the Coastal Protection Benefits Provided by the Natural Environment Greg Guannel, K. Arkema, M. Papenfus, G. Verutes, J. Bernhardt, A. Guerry, C.-K. Kim, M. Ruckelshaus, and J. Toft

2. SaveGuanaCayReef NOAA Geomorphology, Relief Natural Habitats Wave, Wind Storm Surge

3. SaveGuanaCayReef jimmymacofphoenix.com NOAA adclassix.com Marine InVEST Geomorphology, Relief Natural Habitats Wave, Wind Storm Surge

4. Recreation Fishery Aquaculture Coastal Protection Wave Energy Aesthetic Quality Carbon Habitat Risk Water Quality Model Outputs (ecosystem services & values) Model Outputs (ecosystem services & values) Marine InVEST Models Input Data (reflect scenarios) Harvested Biomass Landed Biomass Tourism Revenue Avoided Area Wave Energy ECOSYSTEM SERVICES Carbon Sequestration VALUATION Value of carbon sequestered Value of captured wave energy Value of recreation activity Net present value of finfish and shellfish Avoided damages Habitat type Species distribution Bathymetry & Topography S OCIO -E CONOMIC Oceanography Population density Property values Aquaculture operation costs B IO -P HYSICAL Visitation Rates T ERRESTRIAL S YSTEMS

5. Mapping Coastal Vulnerability to Erosion and Flooding

7. Oi! Are there areas that are more exposed to impacts of high waves and winds than others? Are there natural factors that can reduce these impacts? Oi! Are there areas that are more exposed to impacts of high waves and winds than others? Are there natural factors that can reduce these impacts?

8. Is this area vulnerable to erosion and inundation during storms? How do changes in the natural environment affect that vulnerability? Why does this bloody hell matter to people anyways? Is this area vulnerable to erosion and inundation during storms? How do changes in the natural environment affect that vulnerability? Why does this bloody hell matter to people anyways?

9. Fascinating questions! Let’s solve them, with the CV model! Fascinating questions! Let’s solve them, with the CV model!

10. Two Types of Hazards Flooding Erosion Coastal Protection Model Two Types of Habitats Non-living Living

11. Inputs Coastal Vulnerability Model Erosion/Inundation Model Know the Environment Evaluate Scenarios Coastal Protection Model

12. 12 Coastal Vulnerability Index RANKVery LowLowModerateHighVery High VARIABLE 12345 Geomorphology Rocky; high cliffs; fiord; fiard Medium cliff; indented coast Low cliff; glacial drift; alluvial plain Cobble beach; estuary; lagoon; bluff Barrier beach; sand beach; mud flat; delta Relief > 90th Percentile> 75th PercentileAverage value< 25th Percentile< 10th Percentile Natural Habitats Coral reef; mangrove; coastal forest High dune; marshLow duneSeagrass; kelpNo habitat Sea Level Change Net decrease ±1 Net rise Wind Exposure < 10 th Percentile< 25 th PercentileAverage value> 75 th Percentile> 90 th Percentile Wave Exposure < 10 th Percentile< 25 th PercentileAverage value> 75 th Percentile> 90 th Percentile Surge Potential No exposure< 25 th PercentileAverage value> 75 th Percentile> 90 th Percentile Qualitative assessment of vulnerability based on mixture of relative and absolute ranking of variables

13. Coastal Vulnerability Outputs

14. 14 RankVery LowLowModerateHighVery High Variable 12345 Geomorphology Rocky; high cliffs; fiord; fiard Medium cliff; indented coast Low cliff; glacial drift; alluvial plain Cobble beach; estuary; lagoon; bluff Barrier beach; sand beach; mud flat; delta Relief> 90th Percentile > 75th Percentile Average value< 25th Percentile< 10th Percentile Natural Habitats Coral reef; mangrove; coastal forest High dune; marsh Low duneSeagrass; kelpNo habitat Sea Level ChangeNet decrease ±1 Net rise Wind Exposure< 10 th Percentile< 25 th PercentileAverage value> 75 th Percentile> 90 th Percentile Wave Exposure< 10 th Percentile< 25 th PercentileAverage value> 75 th Percentile> 90 th Percentile Surge PotentialNo exposure< 25 th PercentileAverage value> 75 th Percentile> 90 th Percentile What’s in an Index?....rock

15. RankVery LowLowModerateHighVery High Variable 12345 Geomorphology Rocky; high cliffs; fiord; fiard Medium cliff; indented coast Low cliff; glacial drift; alluvial plain Cobble beach; estuary; lagoon; bluff Barrier beach; sand beach; mud flat; delta Relief> 90th Percentile > 75th Percentile Average value< 25th Percentile< 10th Percentile Natural Habitats Coral reef; mangrove; coastal forest High dune; marsh Low duneSeagrass; kelpNo habitat Sea Level ChangeNet decrease ±1 Net rise Wind Exposure< 10 th Percentile< 25 th PercentileAverage value> 75 th Percentile> 90 th Percentile Wave Exposure< 10 th Percentile< 25 th PercentileAverage value> 75 th Percentile> 90 th Percentile Surge PotentialNo exposure< 25 th PercentileAverage value> 75 th Percentile> 90 th Percentile 15 Living Things! (mostly)

16. RankVery LowLowModerateHighVery High Variable 12345 Geomorphology Rocky; high cliffs; fiord; fiard Medium cliff; indented coast Low cliff; glacial drift; alluvial plain Cobble beach; estuary; lagoon; bluff Barrier beach; sand beach; mud flat; delta Relief> 90th Percentile > 75th Percentile Average value< 25th Percentile< 10th Percentile Natural Habitats Coral reef; mangrove; coastal forest High dune; marsh Low duneSeagrass; kelpNo habitat Sea Level ChangeNet decrease ±1 Net rise Wind Exposure< 10 th Percentile< 25 th PercentileAverage value> 75 th Percentile> 90 th Percentile Wave Exposure< 10 th Percentile< 25 th PercentileAverage value> 75 th Percentile> 90 th Percentile Surge PotentialNo exposure< 25 th PercentileAverage value> 75 th Percentile> 90 th Percentile 16 Lots of Water…AND LAND!

17. British Columbia. Ministry of Water, Land and Air Protection Relative Sea Level Change 17 Need to take land movement into account!

18. Coastal Exposure Index? Wind RankVery LowLowModerateHighVery High Variable 12345 Geomorphology Rocky; high cliffs; fiord; fiard Medium cliff; indented coast Low cliff; glacial drift; alluvial plain Cobble beach; estuary; lagoon; bluff Barrier beach; sand beach; mud flat; delta Relief> 90th Percentile > 75th Percentile Average value< 25th Percentile< 10th Percentile Natural Habitats Coral reef; mangrove; coastal forest High dune; marsh Low duneSeagrass; kelpNo habitat Sea Level ChangeNet decrease ±1 Net rise Wind Exposure< 10 th Percentile< 25 th PercentileAverage value> 75 th Percentile> 90 th Percentile Wave Exposure< 10 th Percentile< 25 th PercentileAverage value> 75 th Percentile> 90 th Percentile Surge PotentialNo exposure< 25 th PercentileAverage value> 75 th Percentile> 90 th Percentile

19. Wind Exposure U

20. Wave Exposure Exposed shorelines: ocean waves Sheltered shorelines: locally-generated waves U

21. Flooding! RankVery LowLowModerateHighVery High Variable 12345 Geomorphology Rocky; high cliffs; fiord; fiard Medium cliff; indented coast Low cliff; glacial drift; alluvial plain Cobble beach; estuary; lagoon; bluff Barrier beach; sand beach; mud flat; delta Relief> 90th Percentile > 75th Percentile Average value< 25th Percentile< 10th Percentile Natural Habitats Coral reef; mangrove; coastal forest High dune; marsh Low duneSeagrass; kelpNo habitat Sea Level ChangeNet decrease ±1 Net rise Wind Exposure< 10 th Percentile< 25 th PercentileAverage value> 75 th Percentile> 90 th Percentile Wave Exposure< 10 th Percentile< 25 th PercentileAverage value> 75 th Percentile> 90 th Percentile Surge PotentialNo exposure< 25 th PercentileAverage value> 75 th Percentile> 90 th Percentile

22. 22 Coastal Vulnerability Index RANKVery LowLowModerateHighVery High VARIABLE 12345 Geomorphology Rocky; high cliffs; fiord; fiard Medium cliff; indented coast Low cliff; glacial drift; alluvial plain Cobble beach; estuary; lagoon; bluff Barrier beach; sand beach; mud flat; delta Relief > 90th Percentile> 75th PercentileAverage value< 25th Percentile< 10th Percentile Natural Habitats Coral reef; mangrove; coastal forest High dune; marshLow duneSeagrass; kelpNo habitat Sea Level Change Net decrease ±1 Net rise Wind Exposure < 10 th Percentile< 25 th PercentileAverage value> 75 th Percentile> 90 th Percentile Wave Exposure < 10 th Percentile< 25 th PercentileAverage value> 75 th Percentile> 90 th Percentile Surge Potential No exposure< 25 th PercentileAverage value> 75 th Percentile> 90 th Percentile Qualitative assessment of vulnerability based on mixture of relative and absolute ranking of variables

23. Example Inputs

25. Vulnerability Index Output

26. Why does this bloody hell matter to people anyways? Oh! And What Did Martha Say?

27. Limitations and Assumptions - Complex coastal processes summarized by 7 variables Screening Tool - No prediction of shoreline change Qualitative Tool - Site-specific sediment transport patterns ignored General Tool

28. 28 Application

29. Model Steps 1.Run Fetch Calculator -Fetch distances -Exposed/Non-Exposed Shorelines 2.Run Vulnerability Index

30. Erosion/Inundation Model Steve@Flickr

31. Erosion/Inundation Model

32. Can treat effects of coral reefs, mangroves, marshes, seagrass beds, oyster reefs and sand dunes

33. Example Outputs: Oyster Reefs Bathymetry Cross-Section Fetch Distances

34. Design Wave H=1m; T=5s Example Outputs: Oyster Reefs

35. Example Outputs: Seagrass Beds

36. 36 Let’s Run the Model!

37. Model Interface

38. Parameters Table

39. Very LowLowModerateHighVery High 12345 Rocky; high cliffs; fiord; fiard Medium cliff; indented coast Low cliff; glacial drift; alluvial plain Cobble beach; estuary; lagoon; bluff Barrier beach; sand beach; mud flat; delta Geomorphology How to Represent Structures?

40. Very LowLowModerateHighVery High 12345 Coral reef; mangrove; coastal forest High dune; marsh Low duneSeagrass; kelpNo habitat Natural Habitats How/Why remove habitats in CV run?

41. Wind and Wave Data

42. Model Outputs Vulnerability Index Erosion Index Inundation Index

43. Update – Ranking Natural Habitats Rank12345 Natural Habitats Coral reef; mangrove; High dune; marsh Low dune coastal forest Seagrass; kelp No habitat Current Ranking

44. Update – Ranking Natural Habitats More habitats = more protection!

45. Wave Exposure – New Approach