1. Policy as a lever for evidence? Getting evidence to drive policy Richard Brooks Director, Strategy Ofsted 22 March 2013

2. Evidence and policy | 2 After lunch… audience participation! 1.In which major areas of education policy has evidence played a relatively weak role? 2.In which major areas of education policy has evidence played a relatively strong role?

3. Evidence and policy | 3 Weak role? You may have said…  Teaching assistants?  Reduced class sizes?  New buildings?  Technology enhanced learning?  Setting and streaming?

4. Evidence and policy | 4 Strong role? You may have said…  Pre-school education?  Phonics and early literacy?  121 and small-group tuition?  Feedback?  Accountability?  Professionalism / teacher quality?

5. Evidence and policy | 5 Three key messages 1.The bar is very high for evidence and research to really drive policy 2.Cogency is the key when it comes to impact 3.Reach out to your audience and evaluate your success honestly

6. Evidence and policy | 6 Leon Feinstein’s 2003 social mobility study http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/3548818?uid=3738032&uid=2&uid=4&sid=21101904308091

7. Evidence and policy | 7 The IFS analyses of the distributional impact of government policy http://www.ifs.org.uk/budgets/budget2010/browne.pdf

8. Evidence and policy | 8 Jane Waldfogel’s 2004 paper on the early years http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/6302/1/Social_Mobility,_Life_Chances,_and_the_Early_Years.pdf

9. Evidence and policy | 9 Three virtues of policy focused work 1. Rigour  Principled methodological starting point  To withstand determined, expert attack

10. Evidence and policy | 10 Three virtues of policy focused work 2. Relevance  Speaking to the right issue and audience at the right time  Generating new debates: the gold standard!

11. Evidence and policy | 11 Three virtues of policy focused work 3. Cogency  The importance of shallow presentational issues…  The necessity to know the audience and to differentiate  The power of narrative  The glory of descriptive statistics

12. Evidence and policy | 12 Three virtues of policy focused work 3. Cogency  The importance of shallow presentational issues  The need to know the audience & differentiate  The power of narrative  The glory of descriptive statistics

13. Evidence and policy | 13 GCSE 5A*-C including English & maths: significant gains for FSM and non-FSM pupils but a big gap which is not closing Source: DfE statistical first releases Note: figures are for maintained schools only

14. Evidence and policy | 14 Over the last five years all the main ethnic groups have improved their GCSE scores. Black African and Bangladeshi pupils have caught up with White British pupils.

15. Evidence and policy | 15 The picture for low-income pupils: White British FSM boys were the lowest attaining group at Key Stage 4 in 2011. White British girls are the next lowest performing group.

16. White British pupils are overwhelmingly the largest ethnic group nationally, e.g. here is the ethnicity of pupils sitting Key Stage 2 and 4 examinations in 2011: Evidence and policy | 16

17. The problem is essentially that White British pupils make poor progress in both primary and secondary school. Starting Points: KS1 ethnic groups Chinese (1)16.4 Indian16.3 Irish15.9 White Brit15.5 African14.8 White/Black Car14.8 Bangladeshi14.8 Pakistani14.5 Caribbean14.4 White British and WB/Black C are in the middle at KS1 but almost all other major groups make much more progress thereafter Evidence and policy | 17

18. One big issue is that there are not enough outstanding schools serving concentrations of low income White British pupils. London Evidence and policy | 18

19. Another is that many FSM pupils are in schools where they account for 10-30% of all the students… Evidence and policy | 19

20. …and this is precisely where these pupils do worst. Source: RAISEonline, 2010/11 data, excluding special schools Evidence and policy | 20

21. A think-tank cookbook 1. Frame the issue 2. Survey the landscape 3. Cast the status quo as a crisis or opportunity 4. Identify policy as either the problem or solution 5. Evaluate the options and make recommendations Evidence and policy | 21

22. What really drives change is the combination of the three virtues: each is necessary, none are sufficient  Rigour  Relevance  Cogency Evidence and policy | 22

23. Questions and Discussion