1. Coping with climate induced natural disasters in coastal Orissa, India B. C. Roy Mruthyunjaya S. Selvarajan National Centre for Agricultural Economics and Policy Research (ICAR)

2. Presentation Part I: Vulnerability of Orissa Agriculture Part II: Coping with natural disasters

3. Why Orissa agriculture is highly vulnerable? Erratic climate Low irrigation coverage Very high degree of dependence on a single crop (mainly rainfed kharif rice) Large coastal area Poor rural infrastructure Lack of resources

5. Orissa is one of most severely food insecure states in India Here, the net climate effect is negative also (Downing, 2002)

6. Very high dependence on kharif production in OrissaVery high dependence on kharif production in Orissa Paddy alone accounts for 78% of gross cropped area in OrissaPaddy alone accounts for 78% of gross cropped area in Orissa Season-wise contribution to total foodgrain production: 1960-2000

7. “Deadly cocktail of floods,cyclones, and droughts” After 1999 super cyclone Men can survive on relief, but what about cattle? Flood in Mahakalpara 2001 ORISSA- The Disaster Capital of India

8. Coping with natural disasters Large scale adaptation programmes by government are severely constrained due to resource scarcity. Therefore, efforts by those who feel the impacts are crucial. How do rural households perceive and cope with CINDs?

9. Kendrapara Mahakalpara Jambu (50) Mangalpur(50) Rajnagar Orissa Gupti (50) Sanwara(50)

10. Rural people’s perceptionEvents Increased incidence? (% response) DroughtFrequencyIntensity9290 FloodsFrequencyIntensity5717 CyclonesFrequencyIntensity2654

11. Preparedness against CIND events: Individual/community

12. Preparedness against CIND events: Institutional

13. Coping strategies Reducing expenditures: Modifying consumption Livestock keeping: Composition & De-stocking Drawing down inventories: Stocks & assets Drawing upon CPRs: Forest, river & sea Seeking alternate employment: Locality or Migration Adjustment in crop practices: Change crop variety Others: Co-operation, Postponing family festivals

14. Some lessons Vulnerability: Nexus between poverty and environment Vulnerability: Nexus between poverty and environment Poor are more vulnerable. Further, their capacity to withstand any extreme event is very low. Poor are more vulnerable. Further, their capacity to withstand any extreme event is very low. Warning systems are almost timely and more or less accurate but the problem is of follow-up actions Warning systems are almost timely and more or less accurate but the problem is of follow-up actions Relief is vital. In spite of limitations, it saved many poor from further suffering. Relief is vital. In spite of limitations, it saved many poor from further suffering. Livestock is a neglected entity in relief programmes. So the case with seed, fodder and credit requirements. Livestock is a neglected entity in relief programmes. So the case with seed, fodder and credit requirements. The coping mechanisms adopted by the rural households provide them flexibility to reduce vulnerability The coping mechanisms adopted by the rural households provide them flexibility to reduce vulnerability However, it is necessary that a system be developed for greater preparedness at all levels, i.e., government and civil society However, it is necessary that a system be developed for greater preparedness at all levels, i.e., government and civil society

15. Looking forward A collaborative study: ‘Developing Decision Making Tools for Assessment of Vulnerability to Climate Change’ A collaborative study: ‘Developing Decision Making Tools for Assessment of Vulnerability to Climate Change’ Objective: Help mainstream adaptation on climate change in national sustainable development planning Objective: Help mainstream adaptation on climate change in national sustainable development planning Target: The project will cover agriculture and allied sector Target: The project will cover agriculture and allied sector Time: Output will be ready within one year from now Time: Output will be ready within one year from now