1. Advances in Modeling and Simulation for US Nuclear Stockpile Stewardship February 2, 2009 James S. Peery Director Computers, Computation, Informatics and Mathematics Center Sandia National Laboratories Sandia is a Multiprogram Laboratory Operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy Under Contract DE-ACO4-94AL85000. 2009 M&S LEADERSHIP SUMMIT

2. Outline Transition to Model and Simulation (M&S) based certification for the US nuclear weapon stockpile Benefits of the NNSA investments to other national security missions and US industry M&S challenges that lay ahead and how Congressional initiatives could help

3. SC05 3 Our Origins: Atomic Blast

4. SC05 4 Confidence testing ended in 1992

5. Central Problem: Replacement of underground testing with a rigorous scientific methodology with which to assess and maintain our confidence in our nuclear stockpile. Time Urgencies: Supporting national policy with respect to the maintenance of our nuclear stockpile requires that we be able to certify annually to the Secretaries of the Departments of Energy and Defense that the stockpile is safe, reliable and secure. National Program: Planned and coordinated across the three Defense Program Laboratories with partnerships with academic centers and industry.

6. Today we have replaced the drilling and set- up of nuclear testing, with the meshing, computer and computational science of simulation using new tools… Survivability Safety Performance of aging components

7. Simulation across many length scales is required to assess nuclear weapon health 110 –15 10 –12 10 –9 10 –6 10 –3 Characteristic Length Scale (m) Constitutive Models Nuclear Structure Molecules and Shocks Atoms Materials Strength Shock-induced Plasticity (Dislocation Dynamics) Tensile Failure Upon Unloading Simulation has also led to scientific discovery

8. Sandia simulation was a critical element in support of Operation BURNT FROST NNSA’s Red Storm computing capability, software and knowledge in Missile Defense Lethality supported the US Operation BURNT FROST in the following areas: –Quantify the Lethality of the SM3 Kill Vehicle against the Satellite –Provide estimates of Satellite debris from the intercept – Assist in Kill Assessment based on the physics-based modeling of the post-intercept debris (as seen by radars)

9. One impressive example is Red Storm - Funded by NNSA, architected by Sandia; engineered and developed by Cray, Inc. With the commercialization of Red Storm as the XT3, Cray’s market share rose from 6% in 2002 to 21% in 2006* There are 21 XT3/XT4/XT5 sites totaling over 40 systems Major sites are: ORNL, NERSC, DOD/ERDC, AWE, PSC A row of Red Storm cabinets with unique multilevel classification switching "Our partnership with NNSA and Sandia on Red Storm has resulted in the Cray XT, an extremely successful supercomputing product line for Cray with over 1,000 cabinets shipped around the world", Peter Ungaro, President and CEO of Cray Inc. *Source: IDC #209251 Technical Computing Systems: Competitive Analysis, November 2007 NNSA’s HPC investments continue to have an impressive impact on the supercomputing industry

10. There is still much work remaining to make HPC pervasive in how the US advances science and engineering Major disruptive HPC architecture changes are coming. Government investments are needed to: –Create partnerships with industry and universities (e.g. DOE Institute for Advanced Algorithms and Architectures) to r educe expected electrical power needs and produce balanced computing systems. –Sustain US HPC competitiveness –Leverage existing M&S SW base M&S SW is becoming very sophisticated. However, barrier for HPC/M&S entry is still very high. Government investments in public private partnerships can lower this barrier. –Transition technology more rapidly to US industry –Retain US dominance in science and engineering 1997 – 1 Teraflop in a room 2,500 ft 2 & 500,000 Watts 2007 – 1 Teraflop on a chip 275 mm 2 (size of a dime) & 62 Watts Grand Challenge: Getting the work done by the system above to the chip below.