1. Fire Management and Climate Change

2. Fire climate factors Past climate change Projected climate change King Island Fire Management adaptation Slide title sits here Introduction

3. “A number between 0 and 100 that is directly related to the chances of a fire starting, its rate of spread, intensity and difficulty of suppression according to various combinations of temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and both long and short term drought effects.” A.G. McArthur 1973 Fire Danger

4. Fire Danger: Rainfall – prolonged summer drought Humidity – dry air Wind Lightning ignitions Fire Climate Factors

5. More & bigger fires, longer fire seasons More fire sensitive vegetation burnt Shorter inter-fire intervals –secondary effects, eg poor recruitment Increased organic soil loss Increase in fire suppression & mitigation Fire and Climate Change Impacts

6. Rainfall Fire Danger Ratings Lightning ignitions Trends in Past Climate Change

7. 19461980 2006 % Difference from mean King Island Annual Rainfall

8. Launceston Forest Fire Danger Index

10. Spring FFDI > 40 at Hobart

11. “In Tasmania there is no strong relationship between thunderstorms and fire......0.01% of the total area burnt in a 12 year period.” Bowman and Brown 1986 Lightning in Tasmania

12. Lightning Fires - PWS Records

13. Wildfire Ignitions - PWS Records SummaryTotal Area %Number % Lightning469 Arson1542 Undetermined1122 Other28 100 Fire seasons 1991/92 to 2006/07

14. Projected Climate Change

15. Lucas et al. 2007: CSIRO climate simulations projections for 2020 & 2050 compared to present (1973-2007) –annual cumulative FFDI –days with FFDI >24 Projected Climate Change

16. Lucas et al. 2007: Little change in FFDI expected for Launceston or Hobart. Significant changes on mainland Projected Climate Change

17. SiteNow20202050 Canberra16.818.322.820.033.4 Hobart2.0 2.12.02.2 Launceston AP1.0 1.21.02.2 Average no. days per year FFDI > 24:

18. Simulation of Fire Risk

19. Projection Problems Understanding fire climatology –what weather factors correlate with fires? Lack of climate modelling for: –Lightning –Drought –Regional areas

20. King Island Fires

21. 2001 fire 2007 fire

22. King Island Fire

24. King Island Fires Organic soil loss: Estimated 1,700 hectares peat in Lavinia –200 hectares peat lost per fire (2001 & 2007) –9 fires –1 fire per century –no peat in 900 years

25. King Island Fires Factors causing increased peat loss: Lower rainfall for 27 years Land use change surrounding –swamp draining & land clearance Increased ignition sources –people –lightning

26. King Island Fire 2007

28. Management Adaptation Heads Up: Longer operational fire seasons More prescribed burning Sacrificial zones More $$

29. King Island Fire 2007

30. Cracroft Fire 2007