1. Orchestra of Treaties, Taishi Sugiyama, CRIEPI, June 12 Bonn. 1 “Orchestra of Treaties” Scenario for after 2012 Taishi Sugiyama, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI) sugiyama@criepi.denken.or.jp Side-Event: Developing Post-Kyoto Architecture CRIEPI/FNI/HWWA/CASS/IHDP June 12 th, 2003, Bonn

2. Orchestra of Treaties, Taishi Sugiyama, CRIEPI, June 12 Bonn. 2 Introduction

3. Orchestra of Treaties, Taishi Sugiyama, CRIEPI, June 12 Bonn. 3 Kyoto: Achievements Creation of comprehensive Cap & Trade systems Political awareness increased Stakeholders identified themselves (renewable producer, ESCO, forestry etc). Low-cost emission cut opportunities were identified.

4. Orchestra of Treaties, Taishi Sugiyama, CRIEPI, June 12 Bonn. 4 Simple “Kyoto Plus” is not enough “Kyoto Plus”= negotiation of caps without changing the structure of Kyoto Protocol. USA, China, India, etc. unlikely to take on caps Coverage of cap will be limited to “willingness”. EU (?)+ Others(?) Difficult to keep price high to induce enough change in investment/ technological R&D. Legal instruments other than cap & trade are crucial

5. Orchestra of Treaties, Taishi Sugiyama, CRIEPI, June 12 Bonn. 5 What International Legal Instruments Should Do? - Lessons from History of Pollution Control -

6. Orchestra of Treaties, Taishi Sugiyama, CRIEPI, June 12 Bonn. 6 Income Pollution Followers Do Better

7. Orchestra of Treaties, Taishi Sugiyama, CRIEPI, June 12 Bonn. 7 4. Economy --- Economy is still running! 3. Idea eg. Pollutions should be controlled eg. Public nuisance undermine brand 2. Institution. eg. Gov’t organization, laws 1. Technology. eg. Sulfur scrubber development Demonstration of Feasibility Made Followers Do Better

8. Orchestra of Treaties, Taishi Sugiyama, CRIEPI, June 12 Bonn. 8 Lessons “Take the lead” makes sense. The key is demonstration of feasibility: technology, institution, idea, and economy. Requirement for international legal instrument: Encourage such demonstration!

9. Orchestra of Treaties, Taishi Sugiyama, CRIEPI, June 12 Bonn. 9 Orchestra of Treaties: Reform of Kyoto

10. Orchestra of Treaties, Taishi Sugiyama, CRIEPI, June 12 Bonn. 10 Kyoto: The Real Shortcomings Adversarial Negotiation Setup Trying the impossible: to impose caps to parties. Negotiation of all policies linked with caps; each policy negotiation is adversarial; few progress. (e.g. Reporting, Sink). Parties of “rights without duties” exist; evils gain most. Lengthy, complex, abstract negotiation; absence of real stakeholders (PV producer, ESCO etc).

11. Orchestra of Treaties, Taishi Sugiyama, CRIEPI, June 12 Bonn. 11 Orchestra of Treaties UNFCCC Protocols Monitoring Protocol Scientific Cooperation Protocol G8 / G20 “minus 1” Treaties (G8=key developed countries=EU+JPN+US etc) (G20=G8+key developing countries ) (“minus 1” is recalcitrant(s) in each treaty) Renewable Treaty F-gas Treaty, Sink Treaty, Geological Storage Treaty Binding Cap Treaty Climate-Friendly Development Treaty Technology RDD Treaty, Technology Transfer Treaty Adaptation Treaty

12. Orchestra of Treaties, Taishi Sugiyama, CRIEPI, June 12 Bonn. 12 Orchestra of Treaties Orchestra of “single issue” treaties. Like-minded parties cooperate on a single issue area of common interest, De-linking the single issue with binding caps, Parties have right and duties in each Treaty to keep evils & free-riders out of negotiation, Invite stakeholders (e.g. PV producer in renewable treaty) in each negotiation, to create “Green & Greedy” coalition

13. Orchestra of Treaties, Taishi Sugiyama, CRIEPI, June 12 Bonn. 13 Orchestra of Treaties How it works? Like-minded Parties, with Green & Greedy, deepen international cooperation in each Treaty. Feasibility of domestic climate policies are demonstrated. More Parties feel confident to deepen their commitment in more treaties.

14. Orchestra of Treaties, Taishi Sugiyama, CRIEPI, June 12 Bonn. 14 Conclusion Kyoto is significant, but simple “Kyoto Plus”, will fail Process should be reformed from adversarial setup to cooperative one; “Orchestra of Treaties” mostly outside UNFCCC.

15. Orchestra of Treaties, Taishi Sugiyama, CRIEPI, June 12 Bonn. 15 Eg. 1. Baptist & Bootleggers “GREEN & GREEDY”COALITION Eg. 2. Ozone Protocol & DuPont Eg. 3. Auto emissions & Honda