1. Strategies for preventing terrorism Lecture by Tore Bjørgo Professor of Police Science Norwegian Police University College; Senior Research Fellow Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI)

2. Main strategies for preventing terrorism Incapacitation of (potential) terrorists by removing their capacities for carrying out action Deterrence by threat of retaliation or punishment Averting planned terrorist attacks Situational prevention by increasing difficulties, costs and risks, and reducing the rewards and excuses for carrying out terrorist attacks Social and political prevention by reducing root causes and motivations for violent radicalisation Disengagement from terrorism – making individuals and groups discontinue their involvement in terrorism Tittel Dato

3. Principles and inclinations The same measure may effect several different mechanisms and be part of several strategies simultaneously. Detention may e.g. be a means in the strategies of incapacitation, deterrence and averting. Preventive actors tend to select their strategies and measures on the basis of their own capacities and political/cultural values. Some actors have a strong preference for one single strategy as the only effective one. However, different strategies may and should complement each other. Some strategies may also undermine other strategies, e.g. “kill or capture” vs. ”winning hearts and minds”. Threat = Capacity X Intention

4. Incapacitation Mechanism: ”Kill or capture”, removing the capacity of violent actors to make more damage Actors: Military forces, police, prison services Measures: (Violent) force, detention Advantages: Effective when taking key activists and groups with limited membership out of action Governments usually possess relevant capacities Limitations and negative side effects: May have limited effects in groups with a high recruitment and a strong social basis May reinforce recruitment and extremism Repression may undermine human rights and the moral legitimacy of the state

5. Deterrence Mechanism: Increasing the costs of terrorism by (threat of) punishment / retaliation to reduce motivation Actors: Criminal justice system, military force, death squadrons Measures: Repression, violent force, punishment, media attention, economic and diplomatic sanctions Advantages: May be particularly effective towards state sponsors of terrorism Popular! May increase support public support of the government Limitations and negative side effects: Limited effects towards highly motivated terrorists, in particular suicide terrorists Difficult to strike at actors which can not be located May easily hit innocent third parties (“collateral damage”), e.g. family members of suicide terrorists May turn the state into a mirror image of the terrorists May reinforce the spiral of violence without addressing root causes May play into the hands of terrorists, making governments respond in ways where they weaken and undermine themselves

6. Averting planned terrorist attacks Mechanism: Preventing terrorists from carrying through prepared attacks by disclosing and stopping them in advance Actors: Intelligence and security agencies, police, the public, news media Measures: Intelligence, in particular HUMINT Apprehending terrorist before they act Security controls Information sharing between agencies Information to the public Advantages: Targeted and concrete, saving lives, reducing suffering High legitimacy, reinforcing confidence in the police and government May break a potential cycle and escalation of violence Limitations and negative side effects: Innocent people may become targets of surveillance and arrests Danger of stigmatising ethnic and religious minorities Risk of striking too early for conviction or too late to prevent disaster Requires highly competent personnel to interpret intelligence data correctly Some prepared actions may slip through

7. Situational prevention (1): Mechanisms: Identify and remove possibilities for specific types of terrorist action. Influence capacities as well as intentions Increase the efforts needed to carry through a specific attack (target hardening; control access to facilities; deflect offenders; control weapons and other tools and substances) Increase the risks for detection (assist natural surveillance and increase formal surveillance; reduce anonymity; extend guardianship and place managers) Reduce the rewards for a specific terrorist action (reduce access to attractive targets; do not give in to blackmail; reduce publicity; deny benefits) Reduce provocations which may trigger terrorist action Remove excuses for carrying out acts of terrorism

8. Actors: Many! (Security guards, control agencies, various authorities, place owners, business organisations, the public, etc.) Measures: Large spectre of possible means Advantages: Often immediate and measurable effects on specific problems. Targeted, but may also impact other types of crime. Limitations and side effects: May displace terrorist attacks from hardened targets to “softer” targets Increased security measures may create a control society: the Big Brother Syndrome May also reduce other problems Situational prevention (2):

9. Identify vulnerable targets Prioritise targets according to needs for protection Risk = Probability X Consequence Analyse the specific vulnerability of the targets Think terrorist! Identify possible weapons and methods terrorists may use to hit targets Find ways to limit the terrorists’ access to targets Introduce adequate protective measures Identify how terrorists may try to bypass protective measures, and introduce new counter-measures. Situational prevention (3):

10. Social and political prevention: removing root causes of terrorism Mechanism: Reduce motivation for terrorism by removing root causes and frustrations Two kinds of root causes: Preconditions and precipitants Actors: Governments, other political actors, NGOs, peace mediators, etc. Measures: Conflict resolution, political processes, social development, non-discrimination, rule of law, etc. Advantages: May have positive effects other social and political problems than terrorism alone Limitations and negative side effects: There is no single root cause of terrorism but many and complex Many root causes are difficult to solve (e.g. protracted conflicts, deeply ingrained social problems) Measures will often take a long time before they make an impact Effects are difficult to measure Terrorism is frequently sustained by other reasons than those which gave rise to the terrorist campaign initially

11. Make terrorists quit terrorism Mechanisms: Make active terrorists quit, individually or collectively. Remove motivation for terrorism Actors: Governments, criminal justice system, NGOs Measures: Amnesty, witness (protection) programmes, negotiations, political processes, alternatives to violence Advantages: May make an end to terrorist campaignes May reduce violence and suffering May reduce the size of terrorist groups and prevent recruitment May cause internal splits and weaken the terrorist group May provide vital intelligence and witnesses in court cases Limitations and negative side effects: May mainly have an impact on declining terrorist groups Amnesty programmes may easily be abused; risk of recidivism Amnesty may be difficult to accept by the victims of terrorism May undermine principles of the rule of law and sense of justice

12. Main strategies for preventing terrorism: Short-term preventive strategies Incapacitation Deterrence by threat of retaliation or punishment Averting planned terrorist attacks Situational prevention Long-term preventive strategies Social and political prevention by reducing root causes and motivations for violent radicalisation Disengagement from terrorism – making individuals and groups discontinue their involvement in terrorism Main challenge: To make short-term and long-term strategies support rather than undermine each other Tittel Dato