1. Integrated Ecological Economics Modeling of Ecosystem Services from Brazil's Amazon Rainforest III LBA Scientific Conference Brasilia, Brazil 2004 Rosimeiry Portela MEES/UMD, USA GIEE/UVM, USA

2. Understanding the structure and function of the Amazon: www.bbcnews.com www.redjellyfish.com gustavofonseca A mosaic picture… Sioli, H. 1984

3. RUMBA: Integrating functions of the ecosystem to human economy and social interactions… …with the main focus on the contribution of the ecosystem goods and functions to human economy and welfare.

4. RUMBA: Scenarios www.bbcnews.com Baseline: Historical trends; Scenario 1: Increased investment in BC with region’s own financial resources; Scenario 2: Increased investment in BC with region’s and external financial resources; Scenario 3: Increased investment in NC with region’s own financial resources; Scenario 4: Increased investment in NC with region’s and external financial resources.

5. Research Results: Annual Deforestation Rates Baseline and Alternative Scenarios

6. Research Results: Land Cover/Land Use Composition Baseline Scenario Strong trend in land conversion from forest to other land uses; 1975: 96% forest cover 2100: 26% forest cover Land Use Pasture: 42% Fallow: 22% Agriculture: 10%

7. Results: Climate Variables Baseline Scenario Precipitation: 23% reduction Evapotranspiration: 26%reduction Temperature: 11% increase Forest Carbon Balance: Decreasing Uptake and Increasing Emissions www.Redjellyfish.com

8. Results: Ecosystem Services Variables Removal of forest cover leads to increasing losses of ecosystem services: 80% by 2100 Higher losses observed in scenarios of increased development Monetary valuation: Increasing prices per unit of service (inelasticity of demand of forest services) www.greenpeace.com

9. Results: Provision of Services by Forest Baseline Scenario

10. Results: Monetary Valuation of Ecosystem Services Value of ecosystem services is estimated at about 5 times the GRP

11. Results: GRP and GRP per capita Increasing economic growth for the simulated period… …accompanied by decreasing per capita income.

12. Results: Welfare/All Scenarios WELFARE (Welfare Index) 19752100 BASELINE4.412.74 SCENARIO 1 2.76 SCENARIO 2 2.76 SCENARIO 3 2.79 SCENARIO 4 2.73

13. Results: Compensation for Avoided Deforestation Gains to the regional economy from forest conversion against losses associated with emissions Scenario 3 (2005-2091) Forest spared from deforestation : 198.5 thousand km 2 Avoided Emissions: 3.3 Pg C Foregone economic growth: US$ 1,567.3 Billion www.junglephotos.com Amazon Deforestation: Amazon Deforestation: 0.3 Pg C yr -1 Kyoto Target: Kyoto Target: 0.5 Pg C yr -1

14. Results: Single Compensation for Avoided Emission

15. Results: Continuous Compensation for Avoided Emission

16. Discussions  Increasing land use change in the Brazilian Amazon incurs significant losses without this being adequately offset by increasing monetary income or welfare of people of the region. www.nasa.com  In the absence of significant incentives from global beneficiaries for any one ecosystem service or a combination of incentives addressing several ecosystem services, rational uses at the local level lead to sub optimal uses from the global perspective.

17. Conclusions Deforestation proceeds at high rates in the Brazilian Amazon The region suffers significant climate changes and losses of forest services as a result of forest removal Increasing regional economic growth is not translated into increasing monetary income and welfare Protection of forest will require a concerted long-term effort www.junglephotos.com

18. ‘What we are doing to the forest of the world is but a mirror reflection of what we are doing to ourselves and one another’. —Mahatma Ghandi www.freejunglephotos.com