1. WASHINGTON STATE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Change forecasted – preparing for budget-driven changes to state government October 2014

2. Themes Celebrate the improvements so far Challenge each other to make big and little changes Shed the complexity, and be clear and proud about the homeless housing system Acknowledge that the overall cuts are hard, but glean progress from the remains 2

3. Situation Reduction in homelessness since 2006, but apparent spike upward in 2014 3

4. Driver of homelessness – income vs. housing cost Median rents up +9% Lowest incomes (bottom 20%) -10.5% 4

5. Driver of homelessness – Factors driving incomes since 2006 Positive: Education attainment up Math and reading skills up Teen pregnancies and births down Large decline in violent and property crime, and related rates of incarceration Reduction in divorce rate 5

6. Driver of homelessness – Factors driving income since 2006 Mostly unchanged: Domestic violence Substance abuse Mental illness Children born outside of marriage 6

7. Why are incomes dropping overall? For any given individual important to improve: Education Family stability Behavioral health …but society-wide income trend out of scope of homeless housing system? 7

8. Why are rents increasing? In some places they are not increasing Landuse/zoning Impact fees/infrastructure Building code (room size, parking, fire suppression, etc.) Etc. Beyond scope of homeless housing system? 8

9. Why are rents increasing? Carefully targeted subsidized housing clearly critical for disabled individuals with low incomes Size of affordable housing problem huge compared to current investments 9

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11. Scale of affordability problem vs. publicly subsidized housing Dsdsdsd 31,000 tenant-based vouchers + 134,000 subsidized project-based units = 165,000 subsidized units 11

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14. Budget-driven changes likely Likely scenarios: Elimination of entire programs, small portion of remaining funds given to homeless housing system Reduction in next CHG grant due to lower recording fee revenue 14

15. Homeless funding: It’s too complicated Draft values: Say no to additional complexity Thoughtful policy making is blocked by complexity Eliminate budget provisos; replace with service targets: 63% reduction (from 19 to 7) in grantee contract categories 15

16. Olympia needs you Commerce will work to improve real-time community analysis of legislative ideas 16

17. CHG/ESG/IYHP/etc. – Keep the critiques coming Because of you: Reformed inspections requirement Proposal to cut in half FMR/Fair market documentation burden Change our fiscal year? 17