1. Hard Times Tony Wilson Director of Policy and Research Centre for Economic and Social Inclusion

2. Toughest jobs market for a generation

3. Back in 2010, consensus was return to trend growth...

4. Since then things have got worse – new forecasts are much weaker...

5. And even those may be optimistic!

6. Result: 300,000 fewer jobs forecast now than previously for 2011-15

7. Which means more people on JSA – up to 350,000 more than expected

8. And while new vacancies have come back up...

9. More competition means the stock of vacancies is in the doldrums

10. So: Hard times And far tougher than when JCP and Work Programme budgets were set

11. e.g. Work Programme – starts up 50% for JSA (partially offset by 10% fall for ESA...)

12. Already seeing this in referrals June to October 2011 – up 20%

14. And will feed through into outcomes Iron law: lower growth = fewer jobs

15. So what does this mean for homeless and vulnerably housed? Threats: Economy Public funding Incentives/ structures Freedom and flex Welfare reform... But opportunities: Experience Freedom and flex

16. Experience Know what good looks like: Single lead case worker within JCP/ WP Collaboration with homelessness services Co-location Referrals to services Reciprocal training Addressing all barriers – esp. mental health, dependency, family breakdown, debt

17. Freedom and flex Less prescription in JCP is also an opportunity Not just a service for when things go wrong Work Programme “black box”, innovation Opportunity to engage is right now More local control – across LA budgets, skills, health, regeneration (but less money overall) Emerging social finance market – Big Society Capital, Community Budgets

18. So where go from here? What’s working? In local partnerships With JCP/ Work Programme/ others How go further? E.g. building on Homeless Link/ JCP guidance; through Work Programme; in local partnerships What needs to change?

19. Tony Wilson Director of Policy and Research Centre for Economic and Social Inclusion