1. Arrestees’ Drug Use Trajectories Using the ADAM Drug Use Calendar to Model Patterns of Illicit Drug Use Brad Myrstol U NIVERSITY of A LASKA A NCHORAGE Justice Center

2. THE DRUG–CRIME CONNECTION Toward a developmental perspective 2

3. Drug Use – Criminal Behavior Robust association between drug use and crime How do we explain the association? 1.Drug use causes crime 2.Crime causes drug use 3.Drug use–crime correlation is spurious At a minimum >>> complex relationship 4. Drug use–crime mutually reinforcing 3

4. Developmental Trajectories Great deal of drug use–crime research is correlational – Cross-sectional, binary indicators of use correlated with criminal behavior Prior drug use (ever, past-year, past-month) Intoxication (under the influence when offense occurred) Phenomena don’t just “happen” all of a sudden – Most social, behavioral, biological processes evolve over time (Nagin, 2005) Developmental approach conceptualizes drug use in terms of an evolving pattern of behavior – Examine the relationship between developmental of drug use and criminal offending, not drug use per se 4

5. AN EXAMPLE Adult male crack cocaine users

6. Data Arrestee Drug Abuse Monitoring program (2000) – 35 sites (26 states + D.C.) – Adult Males (n=21,161) “Ever used CRACK COCAINE?” – 32.7% (n=7,160) “Yes” “Used CRACK COCAINE in past 12 months?” – 19.7% (n=4,170) “Yes” Level of use, each month, past 12 months – Values: 0-3 – Cases with missing values dropped – 17.9% (n=3,801) of adult male sample » 53.1% of male arrestees who have used crack cocaine in lifetime » 91% of male arrestees who have used crack cocaine past year 6

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8. Drug Use Trajectories of Male Arrestees Crack Cocaine 8

9. 28.0%14.1%19.5% 9

10. Drug Use Trajectories of Male Arrestees Crack Cocaine 4.0%3.2% 10

11. Drug Use Trajectories of Male Arrestees Crack Cocaine 23.1%5.2%3.0% 11

12. Socio-Demographic Profiles Trajectory Group Members Stable Groups Escalating Groups Desisting Groups CHARACTERISTICS TOTAL#2#4#7#3#6#1#5#8 Age (mean) 36.355.156.138.134.036.334.236.036.3 Black/Af. Amer. (%) 48.244.863.164.048.753.530.046.845.6 Unemployed (%) 38.732.538.247.538.742.636.744.843.9 Homeless (%) 16.813.715.022.311.316.416.122.221.9 Div./Sep. (%) 24.125.220.525.724.025.424.022.323.7 L/T High School (%) 28.829.630.130.623.332.027.123.229.8 12

13. Offending Profiles Trajectory Group Members Stable Groups Escalating Groups Desisting Groups CHARACTERISTICS TOTAL #2#4#7#3#6#1#5#8 Felonies (%) 46.542.748.347.052.748.444.751.665.8 Misdemeanors (%) 56.258.954.056.048.750.059.350.046.5 Violent (%) 16.718.215.012.814.715.619.218.616.7 Property (%) 24.418.928.627.626.028.722.432.029.8 Drug (%) 29.028.132.933.128.026.225.3 29.8 Order Maint. (%) 12.113.712.612.912.77.410.49.810.5 Pro./Par. violation (%) 7.76.15.85.110.78.211.111.310.5 13

14. Drug Use Behavior Profiles Trajectory Group Members Stable Groups Escalating Groups Desisting Groups CHARACTERISTICS TOTAL#2#4#7#3#6#1#5#8 Teen onset (%) 25.724.721.924.936.026.229.323.721.0 Dependence (%) 78.772.882.989.387.385.868.189.692.1 Positive U/A (%) 76.469.889.192.472.874.658.090.892.7 14