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The Path To Full Employment, But Slack Remains
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Monthly non-farm payrolls have expanded at an average of 280k since mid-2014…
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…which has lifted employment to around 2% above the pre-recession peak
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The unemployment rate has edged down to 5.5% from a peak of 10%...
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…but the part rate remains depressed, although it has stabilised in the past year…
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…while the employment to population ratio has also only partially recovered
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Unemployment duration has declined to 13 weeks, its lowest level since 2009…
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..while the quit rate – a barometer for worker optimism - is approaching pre-recession levels
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Long term unemployment has dropped to 2.7 million people for the first time since 2009
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Under-employment has declined significantly but is still stubbornly high
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Employment in crisis exposed industries hasn’t fully recovered to pre-recession levels
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Average hourly earnings has dipped to sub-2% yoy and is growing only just ahead of core inflation
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The Phillips curve has flattened considerably since the financial crisis
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