1. Jo Hyun Kim, Rhonda Kline, Charles Gilbert, Rachel Smith Western Illinois University http://www.wiu.edu/irp/

2. Introduction : Development of the Cost Guarantee Program

3.  As tuition and prices for books and room and board continue to rise, students and parents are searching for tuition-and-fee stability in an unpredictable economic environment.  Major Goals Of Families - having a predictable cost for college. Of Students - Providing added incentive to complete their degrees in a timely manner. Of the University - Meeting the long-standing goal of a high quality, affordable education.

4.  Looked at the possibility of offering in 1996.  Studied other institutions’ cost guarantees.  Developed a first cost guarantee model.  After much discussion among university administration, the Board of Trustees, students and faculty, the university developed the final cost guarantee model.

5.  Began in Fall 1999 and was offered to all undergraduates matriculating that semester.  No change in tuition, fees, room, and board for four years, or the normal time to obtain a degree, as long as the student remains continuously enrolled. ◦ Cost Guarantee to graduates in Fall 2004.

6.  Growing interest in tuition-and-fee stability in an unpredictable economic environment, more colleges and universities are implementing cost guarantees (FinAid, 2007; Kim, 2004).  Concerns were expressed regarding the values and merits of a cost guarantee (Morphew, 2007).  No study has attempted to examine the impact of a cost guarantee.

7.  The primary purpose of this study is to investigate how the Cost Guarantee program impacts student enrollment, retention, and graduation in a comprehensive public university.  This study also examined how the Cost Guarantee influenced annual college attendance cost.

8. 1. Did the Cost Guarantee policy make the university competitive in attendance cost, compared to other public universities in the state? 2. Did the Cost Guarantee policy increase student enrollment? 3. Did the Cost Guarantee policy improve student outcomes, particularly retention and graduation rates?

9.  Data Collection ◦ Secondary data set ◦ Trends data for cost of attendance, new freshmen enrollment, retention, and graduation rates of 12 Illinois public universities ◦ From IBHE Data Book and IPEDS Peer Analysis System and CSRDE reports  Data Analysis ◦ Descriptive statistics

10. Did the Cost Guarantee policy make the university competitive in attendance cost, compared to other public universities in the state? Question 1.

11. FY2000FY2001FY2002FY2003FY2004FY2005FY2006FY2007 Univ. A 31513255347438514551614366267138 Univ. B 39344167430146485149578163737069 Univ. C 23782454252630544010462250505478 Univ. D 42104340448650375530632870918040 Univ. E 28582946320033264331493263066921 Univ. F 43844583481451755799661772297871 Univ. G 39364114425448655521634168317789 Univ. H 27443007329137094183485952095938 Univ. I 46484800562065926958782484989742 Univ. J 32923395361140094310524759657244 Univ. K 47704994575467047010794486349882 WIU 1st 38363973428248465431618368997411 WIU 2nd 3836 397342824846543161836899 WIU 3rd 3836 39734282484654316183 WIU 4th 3836 3973428248465431

12. FY2000FY2001FY2002FY2003FY2004FY2005FY2006FY2007 Univ. A 57005800582658985856603262126492 Univ. B 41044500484251065374575061966660 Univ. C 42484396475850625414557660546478 Univ. D 44165542586259906150638069847488 Univ. E 38724104436746274886517855606138 Univ. F 41644598487050166240654467207460 Univ. G 68946860675869367138740276788482 Univ. H 55445828607063606618684871767706 WIU 1st 42924506482250625366576861436446 WIU 2nd 4292 450648225062536657686143 WIU 3rd 4292 45064822506253665768 WIU 4th 4292 4506482250625366

13. FY2000FY2001FY2002FY2003FY2004FY2005FY2006FY2007 Univ. A 885190559300974910407121751283813630 Univ. B 803886679143975410523115311256913729 Univ. C 8458873692441009910944119041314514518 Univ. D 880010125106761116511949129971421315359 Univ. E 780882188621949210407115191239113927 Univ. F 690876058161872510423114031192913398 Univ. G 1154211660123781352814096152261617618224 Univ. H 1024410822118241306413628147921581017588 WIU1st 812884799104990810797119511304213857 WIU2nd 8128 847991049908107971195113042 WIU3rd 8128 8479910499081079711951 WIU4th 8128 84799104990810797

14.  Results confirmed that the cost guarantee program helped the university become more competitive in attendance cost compared to other public universities within the same state after the policy implementation. ◦ FY2004 and FY2005, the university’s second, third and fourth year students were paying the lowest tuition rates of Illinois public universities.

15. Did the Cost Guarantee policy increase student enrollment? Question 2.

16.  Table 2-1. Number of Enrollments at Illinois Public Universities: Fall 1992-Fall 2006 (in Handout)  Table 2-2. Annual Enrollment Change (%) (in Handout)  Table 2-3. Annual Enrollment Change Rank (in Handout)

17.  Cost guarantee program enhanced student enrollment ◦ New Freshmen average enrollment headcount comparison  1,597 from fall 1992 to fall 1998  1,867 from fall 1999 to fall 2006  16.9% increase (3 rd highest increase among 10 Illinois public universities with data) ◦ New Freshmen average annual enrollment rate change comparison  0.8% from fall 1992 to fall 1998 (sixth highest among 10 public universities)  2.0% from fall 1999 to fall 2006 (third highest among 10 public universities)

18. Did the Cost Guarantee policy improve student outcomes, particularly retention and graduation rates? Question 3.

19. 199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004 Univ. ANA62%70%76%NA 58%63%60%NA57%53% Univ. C77%73%74%75%76%79% 80% 83%84%85% Univ. D74%71%73%77% 76%77%76%77% 78%79% Univ. E71% 69%70%68%69%68%65%71%68%70%68% Univ. F63%65%70% 74%71% 72%69%75% 76% Univ. H91% 92% 91%92%90%93% Univ. I60%66%65%67% 68%69%72%69% 70%69% WIU66%67%69%70%73%74% 75%76% 77%79%

20. 1995199619971998199920002001 4yr6yr4yr6yr4yr6yr4yr6yr4yr6yr4yr6yr4yr6yr Univ. A5.716.33.017.81.215.21.713.62.015.82.918.04.116.2 Univ. B30.465.330.866.430.959.534.162.232.660.631.560.531.160.3 Univ. C27.955.930.457.331.259.133.461.835.063.337.064.239.565.2 Univ. D24.049.225.251.325.952.924.251.325.453.322.948.326.052.3 Univ. E17.640.417.138.619.643.321.343.119.341.420.741.824.045.7 Univ. F14.241.514.537.619.944.618.342.818.644.821.745.821.144.8 Univ. G12.542.016.744.016.345.516.144.719.849.821.350.522.450.0 Univ. H54.978.056.579.958.181.058.580.460.382.961.081.762.681.9 Univ. I2.514.01.514.12.517.91.615.22.316.92.818.52.218.7 WIU25.549.129.050.728.155.328.854.332.155.431.655.633.256.6

21.  Findings from this study support positive impacts of the cost guarantee policy on student enrollment, fall-to-fall retention rates, and four-year graduation rates. ◦ The first year retention rate of first-time full-time degree-seeking students has continued to increase, except for the 2002 cohort. ◦ Cost guarantee improved four-year graduation rates, but limited impact on six-year graduation rates. ◦ Cost guarantee program improved student retention and graduation rates when compared to other Illinois public universities.

22.  Study supports positive impact of the cost guarantee policy on student enrollment, fall-to-fall retention rates, and four-year graduation rates.  The implementation of a cost guarantee which covers not only tuition, but also fees and room and board, makes college costs more predictable and enables parents and students to enter the university knowing in advance what their four-year cost will be which allows them to plan college costs accordingly.

23.  Seeing the success of the university’s cost guarantee, the state passed a “Truth in Tuition” law and mandated all public universities in the state to provide a tuition cost guarantee beginning in fall 2004.

24.  Use long-term data for future study.  Evaluate other impacting factors such as: ◦ Financial aid ◦ Change in family income ◦ Unemployment rate  Use different research design such as: o Experimental studies o Quasi-experimental studies comparing control and non-control groups