1. January 2005 COAST’ meeting 1 HAB Forecast System

2. January 2005 COAST’ meeting 2 HAB Forecast System Enhanced satellite imagery web-based GIS Better coordinate monitoring/modeling/ data mining

3. January 2005 COAST’ meeting 3 HAB Forecast System

4. January 2005 COAST’ meeting 4 HAB Forecast System

5. January 2005 COAST’ meeting 5 HAB Forecast System Source: Dierssen et al., submitted to L&O The problem… most HAB organisms are at low abundance or not distinguishable based on ocean color alone

6. January 2005 COAST’ meeting 6 HAB Forecast System Spectral reflectance and modeled absorption for major functional groups from a red tide in the Benguela (source: Babin et al., Oceanography 2005) Solid black line: pre-HAB reflectance

7. January 2005 COAST’ meeting 7 HAB Forecast System Gymnodinium sanguineum bloom in Paracas, Peru showing the potential advantage of increased spatial resolution (MODIS 250/500 m) for HAB event detection (source: Kahru, EOS 2004)

8. January 2005 COAST’ meeting 8 HAB Forecast System HES-CW Advantages: Increased spatial/spectral/temporal resolution –525-625 nm critical, blue/UV very helpful if it can be used for CDOM –Especially useful on East coast for estuaries Feature tracking capabilities not yet implemented in most HAB programs Multiple looks could be used to track vertical migration FLH could indicate toxicity

9. January 2005 COAST’ meeting 9 HAB Forecast System Operational Harmful Algal Bloom Forecast System for the Gulf of Mexico NOAA objective: to establish forecasts of Harmful Algal Blooms nationwide, based on research and collaborations with state and local experts and managers. Red Tide capability started in Florida in 1999 –Only satellite imagery used at first –Starting in 2001, integrated analysis for the Gulf of Mexico in demonstration mode –Continued effort at improving capability. Operational in September 2004, Over 70 bulletins issued in 2005 to 119 subscribers at over 25 agency offices.

10. January 2005 COAST’ meeting 10 HAB Forecast System NOAA Forecast System for Gulf of Mexico Changes occurring with NOAA operational system –Operational on a 5-day week (Analysts available every day). –Comprehensive analysis and graphics e-mailed to state/local managers at least twice a week (subscription only) –Information to public and businesses twice a week Bulletins available to the public after minimum 1 week delay –Public Information updated twice weekly- text only (Web- based) Current conditions and expected conditions for next 1-3 days –Other information available on Web-site Various data sets have been available for over two years

11. January 2005 COAST’ meeting 11 HAB Forecast System Subscribers County Government State Government Federal Government Non-governmental organizations supporting coastal mgmt HAB Bulletin Subscribers

12. January 2005 COAST’ meeting 12 HAB Forecast System Gulf of Mexico Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB) Forecast System A Federal/State/Commercial Collaboration NOAA Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS) Coastal Services Center Natl Centers for Coastal Ocean Science CoastWatch Program National Data Buoy Center NWS Florida Marine Research Institute Mote Marine Lab Texas Parks and Wildlife Univ.Texas Louisiana, LUMCON Dauphin Island Sea Lab University of Southern Mississippi ORBIMAGE

13. January 2005 COAST’ meeting 13 HAB Forecast System Distributed to State/Local/Federal Government Page 1 Page 2

14. January 2005 COAST’ meeting 14 HAB Forecast System Research basis for detection and for modeling Example of imagery and research data to improve results and studies. ECOHAB cruise data, state data, and satellite imagery for locating and confirming red tide Size of box is concentration of red tide Yellow collected on same day as satellite Purple on day before

15. January 2005 COAST’ meeting 15 HAB Forecast System Potential HAB Flagging Enhancements Anomaly: Pro: Not dependent on water optics, shows transport Con: Will flag all new blooms; quits on long- lived blooms Backscatter: Pro: Tends not to flag Trichodesmium Con: Fails in water with high sediment loads & complex optics Indicates some (many?) diatom blooms Thresholds are variable Chl Anomaly Low backscatter, High Chl in blue Current Flag Evaluating optical flag (Carder/Cannizzaro) Old Bloom

16. January 2005 COAST’ meeting 16 HAB Forecast System Harmful Algal Blooms HAB Bulletins HAB Modeling with NOAA Coast Survey and Office of Response and Restoration HAB Remote Sensing Techniques Olympic HAB, West Coast with NMFS Algorithm testing and improvement (work with U.Texas, USF, Batelle, UCSC) Event Response (e.g. Florida blackwater) Future Areas- Sanctuaries, brown tides SeaWiFS chlorophyll image for west coast of Florida

17. January 2005 COAST’ meeting 17 HAB Forecast System HAB Bulletin Web Site

18. January 2005 COAST’ meeting 18 HAB Forecast System Other Information Included in Public Conditions Presence of Large Harmless Blooms Harmless Discoloration (resuspended sediments, unusual dark water)

19. January 2005 COAST’ meeting 19 HAB Forecast System Monitoring and Forecasting Harmful Algal Blooms Soon fully operational by NOAA/NOS in Gulf of Mexico; Federal/state/commercial collaboration Orbimage - SeaWiFS Models Satellite imagery Moorings Impact evaluation Orbimage - SeaWiFS Field samples Email Bulletins to state & local managers GOES-R value

20. January 2005 COAST’ meeting 20 HAB Forecast System Operational Harmful Algal Bloom Forecast System for the US—proposed expansion to support other state and local needs 2006-2012 Western Gulf of Mexico, 2006 Pacific NW— Pseudonitzschia spp. Central CA— Pseudonitzschia spp., others Gulf of Maine—Alexandrium Lake Erie —Microcystis Great Lakes—Microcystis (Saginaw Bay), other health issues (feature tracking)

21. January 2005 COAST’ meeting 21 HAB Forecast System HES-CW Field Validation Requirements Need to focus on ecological algorithms rather than species-specific ID MUST BE integrated with existing monitoring programs for contextual information Need to collect species information (HAB and non-HAB) and toxin data with optical data Ideally, would have multiple iterations of HAB and non-HAB events to identify false positives/negatives