1. 1 National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO October 20, 2005 Andy Stern Consulting Meteorologist Mitretek Systems Putting Together a RFP that includes MDSS Functionality

2. 2 So, you want MDSS?

3. 3 Objective There are many new and innovative techniques, visualizations & innovations by both the research & services community available each season The state of the art in weather and road maintenance keeps moving forward Don’t just settle for a typical package of winter maintenance support – PUSH THE ENVELOP to your advantage!

4. 4 Determination of Need Some questions to ask as you begin: –Do you know your region’s climate? Micro-climatology Influences by terrain or water Special challenges (e.g., permafrost, lake effect) What is your risk temperament? –Mobility Policy / Chemical Policy Are you proactive (anti-icing vs. reactionary)

5. 5 Factors to Consider Is your staff open to learning new methods? Does your staff work well with computers? Do you have access to wideband internet? Is your staff open to training? Will your staff participate in both customizing & validating a MDSS system?

6. 6 Shopping for Forecast Elements Sifting through what is available versus what you need for operations Avoid data overload Typical elements that are available –Air Temperature –Dew Point Temperature –Relative Humidity –Wind Direction/Speed/Gustiness –Sky Condition

7. 7 More Forecast Elements - Precip Probability of Precipitation Precipitation Type (deterministic) Precipitation Type (conditional) Precipitation Accumulation Liquid Equivalent Accumulation Precipitation Rate/Intensity Probability of Reaching Threshold Amounts

8. 8 More Forecast Elements-Surface Road Surface Temperature Bridge Temperature Probability of Road Frost Probability of Bridge Frost Blowing Snow Potential Road Temperature Crossing Thresholds –forecast of road temp falling below 35F –forecast of road temp at onset of precip

9. 9 More Elements - Miscellaneous Visibility –due to fog, smoke, haze, dust –due to falling precipitation –due to blowing precip that has already been deposited Solar Insolation (short/long wave, total) Evaporation Rate Confidence Levels in particular & important elements

10. 10 Forecast Preparation Frequency Hourly forecasts (for how long?) 6 hourly forecasts (for how long?) Next day forecasts 3-5 day forecasts Static forecast preparation times –3 pm for planning overnight & next morning –3 day forecast on Fridays –3 day forecast over holidays

11. 11 Forecast Formats & Delivery Tabular versus Graphical Beeper Text Message Internet Toll Free Phone Lines PDA XML Satellite Delivery

12. 12 MDSS Functionality (1) Visualization tool for combining complex data sets and presenting an easy to use and understand maintenance guidance and weather information Displays hourly forecast information (18-24 hours) Calculated road conditions Suggested maintenance actions Fully customizable for routes & maintenance policies

13. 13 MDSS Functionality (2) What-If scenarios – allows for recalculation of treatment strategies by manual entry of treatment parameters Blowing Snow Advisories Road/Bridge Frost Advisories Snow Drift Forecasts Forecast Archiving Accepting data directly from GPS/AVL

14. 14 Professional Team Don’t be afraid of meteorologists. We are geeks – and are generally harmless Insist on a team with meteorologists that are both degreed and have experience in surface transportation forecasting Real forecasters are not afraid of verification (but they tend to have gray hair) Make sure that they can communicate effectively (reduce the techno-garble)

15. 15 Resources www.rap.ucar.edu/projects/rdwx_mdss /documents/index.html “Road Weather Forecasting and Observations: Assessment of Current Capabilities and Future Trends” “MDSS Functional Specification Template and Procurement Guidance” Contact Paul.Pisano@fhwa.dot.gov for additional information