1. (C) Murray Turoff 20061 Planning as Gaming or Gaming as Planning Murray Turoff, Michael Chumer Starr Roxanne Hiltz Information Systems Department

2. (C) Murray Turoff 20062 Spectrum of Planning competitive/military/nature Offense Defense Planning (Hegelian approach) Human OffenseComputer Offense Human DefensePlan Improvement by experts (Non-zero sum competitive game) Training for learners Computer DefenseStress testing of plan details by experts Simulation for sensitivity and risk assessment based upon probabilistic factors

3. (C) Murray Turoff 20063 Player Assumptions* AssumptionsOffense Pessimistic Offense Optimistic Defense Pessimistic Stupid for both Murphy’s Law Peace is best!!! Safe and costly for defense Stupid for offense Defense Optimistic Safe and costly for offense Stupid for defense Armaments spiral Realism through resource constraints *Problem: Nature seems to be increasing her resources

4. (C) Murray Turoff 20064 Nature of Defense Plan or Offense Threat Scenario is a collection of events –Defense only events is a plan –Offense only events is a threat –A combination is an interaction scenario Events –Require human roles, equipment, and resources –Triggered by and trigger other events –Have objectives and outcome options Roles and Equipment are constrained by allocation Current capability determined and desired capability developed

5. (C) Murray Turoff 20065 Objectives of the Game Improve EP plans for unique events Improve threat scenario development Stimulate creativity for professionals Create Situational Awareness Stimulate mental rehearsal (cognitive maps) Encourage Critical and reflective thinking Refine resource and Information System Requirements Train novices

6. (C) Murray Turoff 20066 Approach to Design of Game Hegelian Inquiry Process –Opposing World Views (Plan and counter plan) –Synergistic combinations Delphi Aspects –Iteration for improvement –Pennames Defense Conservative & Offense Conservative –Set up resource constraints –Middle ground between optimistic and pessimistic

7. (C) Murray Turoff 20067 Totally Asynchronous Game Uses an group communication system such as WebBoard/Webct/Moodle –Initial Design avoids any special software additions –Allows individual to participate at any time of the day or night from any location –Everyone can have a pen name –Continuous 3-5 hours a week for as long as one wants

8. (C) Murray Turoff 20068 Generality of the Game A threat can be: –A terrorist action –A natural disaster –A Competitive company threat –etc Use of competitive rounds to stir creativity Continuous to allow reflective thinking Collaboration of teams dealing with a similar problem to help good ideas to emerge in a large scale consensus Threat team can be designing the properties and details of a competitive product, a flood, or an earthquake

9. (C) Murray Turoff 20069

10. 10 Current Findings WebBoard alone is insufficient based upon two field trials (threaded discussions not content rich) Collaborative writing that combines associative and hierarchical “structures” i.e. some structure to the plan creation process Need is to have a collaborative data base (currently a thesis topic)

11. (C) Murray Turoff 200611 Creative Collaboration Being able to easily build, fit together and tailor components in what is almost a virtual Lego system It is the process of evolving alternatives and allowing creativity among the group. Creating an ongoing library of pieces creates a data base that allows an organizational memory and new creations made easier for many teams to contribute ideas Collaborative knowledge building

12. (C) Murray Turoff 200612 Challenge for Emergency Planning The total team does not exist until the emergency There is no major physical system nor team that exists before No way to build an HRO (High Reliability Organization), except by –Introduction of a continuous virtual system such as the “game” –The asynchronous team and the knowledge building process creates the HRO conditions

13. (C) Murray Turoff 200613 Emergency Management Problems for becoming an HRO Planning often done by people that will not be part of the real response team –Plans often inadequate or unrealistic –Exceptions not considered Knowledge is not accumulate and maintained over long periods It is time for Emergency Management to become a discipline