1. Landing the climate regime in Paris 2015 Laurence Tubiana Professor Sciences po and Columbia University

2. What is at stake in Paris in 2015 It is simple : It is about changing economic and political signals in favor of the low carbon economy It is about the alignment of expectations of: – Governments – Local authorities – Businesses – Consumers and citizens

3. How we do that? This is not simple ! required : something like a sheepdog or a magic flute The notion of a centralized emission of the signal have disappeared together with time tables and targets model including a global carbon price

4. Two pillars of the Paris compact The agreement between governments within UNFCC mandate : the sheep dog The actions of all supporting the UNFCCC agreement : the flute player And a cross-cutting innovation and R and D agenda

5. Two pillars of the Paris compact UNFCCC agreement : the sheepdog method Legal agreement on processes : the remaining top down elements Push and pull : national contributions as the center piece

6. Mitigation contributions A fundamental shift from a ‘logic of targets’ to a ‘logic of pathways’. Under a ‘logic of pathways’, countries would submit long-term, indicative low emissions pathways, combined with operational multi- sector, multi-timeframe target packages.

7. Four levels of uncertainties making comitments difficult Level 1: uncertainty about the level and structure of future economic activity Level 2 : uncertainty of actions of others Level 3: uncertainty on the reality of action: understanding the ‘signal’ of serious decarbonisation effort amid short-term uncertainty and inertia Level 4: capacity to deliver depending on costs, government capacity, availability of technologies

8. Mitigation structure Combining the short-term and the long-term perspective through a combination of short-term targets and aspirational long-term pathways. Align domestic policy processes and international negotiations through collective, predictable expectations about future negotiation cycles. Reflect the inertia of infrastructure by updating near- term targets by setting new targets for the next period. For example, in 2020 it would make very little sense to adjust a 2025 target. Rather, new ambition and reduction opportunities should be expressed by more ambitious 2030 and 2035 targets.

9. Reducing uncertainties

10. A Global goal : why and how keep 2° 2°C target : a directional reference to assess progress at the global level and national contributions. a risk management approach recognizing the imperative to avoid risks of higher concentration, delayed action scenarios: It should include more operational directional references than the current framing under the Cancun Agreements, key quantified conclusions of the IPCC regarding the global 2˚C trajectory as a directional reference point. iterations of nationally determined contributions should be taken in the context of the 2˚C target. An on-going process of reinforced action to address the gap. Ex sectoral policy efforts, Mainly R and D…

11. Updated contributions The approach for a dynamic agreement should address three challenges: Combining the short-term and the long-term perspective through a combination of short-term targets and aspirational long-term pathways. Align domestic policy processes and international negotiations through collective, predictable expectations about future negotiation cycles. Reflect the inertia of infrastructure by updating near-term targets by setting new targets for the next period. For example, in 2020 it would make very little sense to adjust a 2025 target. Rather, new ambition and reduction opportunities should be expressed by more ambitious 2030 and 2035 targets.

12. rolling, multi-period target framework combined with a long-term low emissions pathway, i.e. an indicative long-term low emissions development strategy. 2025/2030 …2050 A combination of Targets and Pathways

13. Rolling targets

14. Three tier approach Tier one: absolute, economy-wide targets relative to a predefined base-year/period, including both absolute reduction or absolute growth targets (e.g. for emerging countries), or aspirational peaking targets; Tier two: relative, economy-wide targets against GDP (carbon intensity) or population (per capita) or against ex ante defined BAU; Tier three: quantitative or qualitative sectoral indicators, targets or policies organized around the major emitting sectors.

15. The second pillar : actions in support of UNFCCC agreement The flute player : Cities, subnationals authorities Businesse acting in local or global value chains Financial institutions : National development banks Multilaterals development banks Pension and Soverereign funds

16. How to organize ? Working on the time horizon Risk disclosure Long term visions

17. Its complex stupid!

18. A role for economists Work on this new reality : Imperfect markets No carbon price silver bullet solution Inertia and lock in Innovation Co-benefits ….

19. GOOD LUCK FOR ALL OF US !