2. The Geopolitics of Arctic Melt Dr. Charles K. Ebinger And Evie Zambetakis Energy Security Initiative The Brookings Institution

3. Arctic Melt Climate change, feedback loops Climate change, feedback loops More than one million square miles of ice melted in 2007 More than one million square miles of ice melted in 2007 We could have ice-free Arctic summers as early as 2013 or 2015 We could have ice-free Arctic summers as early as 2013 or 2015 New environmental and strategic challenges New environmental and strategic challenges

6. Arctic Melt: What you need to know The short- to medium-term debate: new or existing multinational frameworks for Arctic governance The short- to medium-term debate: new or existing multinational frameworks for Arctic governance Technology is a key barrier to the “scramble” for access to shipping and E&P of hydrocarbons Technology is a key barrier to the “scramble” for access to shipping and E&P of hydrocarbons The US is far behind the rest of the Arctic states on its Arctic policy and presence The US is far behind the rest of the Arctic states on its Arctic policy and presence

7. Legal Frameworks and International Cooperation UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) Arctic Council Arctic Council Challenges to governance Challenges to governance

8. Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/arctic-sea-routes-northern-sea-route-and-northwest-passage Shipping Routes

9. Geopolitical Flashpoints

11. Icebreaker Fleets 1 Icebreaker = 8-10 years lead-time + ~$1 billion Russia Canada Finland U.S. Germany Japan China

12. Natural Gas-to-Oil Ratio 3:1 http://www.cge.uevora.pt/aspo2005/abscom/Abstract_Lisbon_Ronning.pdfhttp://www.cge.uevora.pt/aspo2005/abscom/Abstract_Lisbon_Ronning.pdf - Statoil’s Arctic Assessment

13. When would Arctic E&P be attractive? High Oil Prices High Oil Prices Ice-capable technology Ice-capable technology Increased geopolitical tensions in shipping chokepoints Increased geopolitical tensions in shipping chokepoints Sense of clear delineation of boundaries and legal frameworks Sense of clear delineation of boundaries and legal frameworks

14. The Big Picture Arctic states appear committed to cooperation and are likely to build capacity of existing frameworks Arctic states appear committed to cooperation and are likely to build capacity of existing frameworks Commercial and strategic benefits are real but distant Commercial and strategic benefits are real but distant Arctic remains strategically important in the long-run, with multiple potential flashpoints which can be mitigated by focus on cooperation Arctic remains strategically important in the long-run, with multiple potential flashpoints which can be mitigated by focus on cooperation

15. Recommendations for the United States US must be able to be active and project influence in the Arctic region year-round and in any conditions US must be able to be active and project influence in the Arctic region year-round and in any conditions Ratify UNCLOS Ratify UNCLOS Invest $2 billion for 2 new icebreakers and $1 billion for maintenance of existing icebreakers in the interim Invest $2 billion for 2 new icebreakers and $1 billion for maintenance of existing icebreakers in the interim Encourage research on ice-capable technologies through public-private partnerships Encourage research on ice-capable technologies through public-private partnerships

16. Contact cebinger@brookings.edu cebinger@brookings.edu cebinger@brookings.edu ezambetakis@brookings.edu ezambetakis@brookings.edu ezambetakis@brookings.edu