1. THE MOSAIC COMPANY (NYSE:MOS) NOVEMBER 7, 2013 Dan Ballantine, Zige He, and Zuowei Xu

2. Agenda  Introduction  Macroeconomic Outlook  Industry Overview  Company Overview  Financial Analysis  Valuation  Recommendation

3. The Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS)  Largest combined potash and phosphates producer  Engages in the mining, production, and distribution of crop nutrients  Formed through the combination of IMC Global and Cargill’s crop nutrient segment in 2004  Sector: Basic Materials  Industry: Agricultural Chemical Source: Mosaic Company Website

4. Current Holding Information  December 17, 2009: Purchased 200 shares at $55.00/share ($11,000 total investment)  November 6, 2013 Price: $ 46.35  Unrealized loss: 15.73% ($1,730)  Total Position Value:$9,270  Represents 5.03% of total portfolio value Source: Yahoo Finance

5. Macroeconomic Outlook PopulationCropFertilizer  Expected global population increases will lead to steady demand for fertilizers over the long-term  Additional pressure for existing farmland to become more productive

6. Macroeconomic Outlook Source: USDA, Mosaic, IHS Global Insight  Expected global population increases combined with increased use of agricultural inputs

7. Agricultural Chemical Industry Commodity Pricing Capital Intensive Highly Concentrated Price Cartel: Breaking Down

8. Agricultural Chemical Industry  USDA: Price of potash and phosphates decreasing since the high prices in 2011  Retail Price of Potash:$400/ton, down 20% since last year Source: USDA, InfoMine

9. Industry Forces Analysis Rivalry: High Buyers: High Substitutes: Low Suppliers: Medium New Entrants: Low

10. Industry Forces Analysis  Bargaining Power of Suppliers: MEDIUM  Large fertilizer companies have long-term contract with suppliers  Bargaining Power of Buyers: HIGH  Commodity products with little differentiation and control over pricing  Threat of New Entrants: LOW  The 10 biggest companies cover more than 80% percent market share  Economies of scale

11. Industry Forces Analysis  Threat of Substitutes: LOW  No substitute for potash  Lack of cost-effective substitutes  Rivalry among Competitors: HIGH  Very competitive  Dominated by large companies looking to increase market share

12. Industry Performance Analysis Source: Google Finance  Industry index underperformed the S&P 500 in 2013

13. Company Overview  Leading producer and marketer of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients and animal feed ingredients  Serves customers in approximately 40 countries  8,400 employees  Phosphate Products: crop nutrients DAP and MAP, animal feed  Potash Products: red MOP, white MOP (salts of potassium) Source: Mosaic FY 2013 10-K

14. Company Overview  Financial Performance Source: Mosaic FY 2013 Annual Report

15. Company Overview  Product Segments:  Potash: 13% of estimated global potash production; 42% of estimated North American potash production  Phosphate: 12% of estimated global production; 59% of estimated North American production of concentrated phosphate crop nutrients Source: Mosaic FY 2013 10-K

16. Company Overview  Potash Segment  Three potash mines in Canada; two potash mines in the United States  Production: 7.8 million tonnes  Expansion plan Source: Mosaic FY 2013 10-K

17. Company Overview  Phosphate Segment  Owns and operates mines and production facilities in Florida; processing plants in Louisiana  Production: 8.2 million tonnes  Low cost strategy  Economic scale  Vertical integration  Innovation: Premium Product MicroEssentials® (“ME”)  Sales increased approximately 28% Source: Mosaic FY 2013 10-K

18. Company Overview  Distribution  Potash Segment:  Domestic and international sales  Canpotex, Limited  Phosphate Segment:  Phosphate Chemicals Export Association, Inc Source: Mosaic FY 2013 10-K

19. Business Risk Analysis Changing economic conditions and government policies Global Competition Variations in crop nutrient application rates Significant levels of inventories Weather Conditions Source: Mosaic FY 2013 10-K

20. SWOT Analysis StrengthsWeaknesses -Minimal long-term debt -Strong cash position -Diversified international sales -Expanding production capacity -Decreasing sales volume -Declining margins -Multiple recent strategic changes OpportunitiesThreats -Lower raw material costs -International market access -Positive macroeconomic outlook with growing population -Commodity pricing -Government policies -Increased competition -External demand factors

21. Cargill & Mosaic Relationship  October 2004: Originally created from Cargill’s crop nutrient business division  January 2011: Cargill family trust plans to liquidate its entire stake (64%)  Could have been a sign the company was overvalued at the time (trading around $80/share)  June 2013: stock buyback request blocked by Cargill trust holders  Still hold 129 million shares of Mosaic common stock Source: New York Times, Bloomberg

22. Recent News  MOS Reports Earnings: November 5, 2013  Difficulties due to lower phosphates and potash prices  Diluted EPS of $0.29/share versus $0.98 last year  MOS Announces Acquisition: October 28, 2013  Acquiring phosphates business from CF Industries  $1.4 billion for Florida-based phosphate assets  Uralkali Cartel Fallout: Late July 2013  Breakup of a pricing cartel, potash prices plummet  Uralkali plans to pursue higher volume strategy Source: Mosaic Investor Relations, Bloomberg

23. Management Outlook  Concerned about short-term potash and phosphate prices, but considers price decreases a cyclical issue  Believes industry will return to normal and continue to grow  Recent strategic change:  Shift from potash expansion to phosphates expansion  Looking to expand North America potash operations  Concerns about demand in emerging markets in the next year Source: Mosaic Calendar Year 2013 Q3 Earnings Press Release

24. Recent Financial Information Source: Mosaic 2013 FY 10-K, FY 2010 10-K, CY 2013 Q3 10-Q NOTE: Mosaic is changing its year-end from May 31 to December 31 * FY refers to year ended May 31 * Q3 2013 reports Q3 of Calendar 2013, meaning the quarter ending September 30, 2013

25. Recent Financial Information Source: Mosaic FY 2013 10-K, FY 2010 10-K, Q3 CY 2013 10-Q NOTE: Mosaic is changing its year-end from May 31 to December 31 * FY refers to year ended May 31 * Q3 2013 reports Q3 of Calendar 2013, meaning the quarter ending September 30, 2013

26. Current Stock Information Source: Capital IQ, Yahoo Finance MetricValue Current Stock Price $46.35 Trailing P/E 10.49 Forward P/E 18.11 Dividend Yield 2.16% Market Cap ($ millions) $19,735.8

27. Financial Analysis NOTE: The years above refer to the fiscal years ending on May 31

28. Financial Analysis NOTE: The years above refer to the fiscal years ending on May 31

29. Comparable Companies Source: Capital IQ CompanyTickerMarket Cap ($ millions) Agrium Inc.(TSX:AGU) $12,795.1 CF Industries Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:CF) $12,127.0 Israel Chemicals Ltd.(TASE:ICL)$10,855.3 K+S Aktiengesellschaft(DB:SDF)$5,196.5 Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc.(TSX:POT)$27,840.4 The Mosaic Company(NYSE:MOS)$19,735.8

30. Stock Performance Source: Yahoo Finance

31. Comparable Company Analysis Source: Capital IQ

32. Comparable Company Analysis Source: Capital IQ

33. Discount Rate Source: Yahoo Finance

34. Discount Rate

35. DCF Analysis

36. Decision Drivers  Strengths  Strong balance sheet  Growing dividend yield  Macroeconomic outlook  Vertical integration  Concerns  Uncertainty over industry outlook in near future  Recent strategic changes  Significant uncertainties on product pricing  Overly optimistic management outlook on industry and expansion plans

37. Recommendation  Valuation Summary  Current Stock Price: $46.35  Comparable Companies Valuation: $40.87  DCF Valuation: $33.50  Recommendation: SELL  Sell current holding of 200 shares at current market price resulting in a realized loss of approximately 15.73%

38. Questions?