1. Climate Protection Strategies and Transformation of Energy Systems Dr. Astrid Schulz German Advisory Council on Global Change WBGU Secretariat

2. German Advisory Council on Global Change to the Federal Government (WBGU) Members: A. Epiney, Inst. Droit Européen, Fribourg H. Graßl, MPI Hamburg R. Schubert, ETH Zürich M. E. Kulessa, FH Mainz J. Luther, Fraunhofer ISE Freiburg F. Nuscheler, INEF Duisburg R. Sauerborn, Univ. Heidelberg H.-J. Schellnhuber, Tyndall Centre E.-D. Schulze, MPI Jena Mission: set up by the Federal Government in 1992 as an independent advisory body Every two years submits a report to the Federal Government containing recommendations for research and further action to combat global problems in the field of environment and development. Special reports and policy papers for particular events

3. Climate Protection Strategies for the 21st Century: Kyoto and beyond Special report, November 2003

4. Towards Sustainable Energy Systems Report Summer 2003 (german) Spring 2004 (english)

5. Ecological guard rails Climate protection  temperature rise < 2°C and <0.2°C /decade Sustainable land use  10-20% of global surface reserved for nature conservation  Less than 3% for bioenergy crops or carbon sequestration Protection of rivers and catchment areas  10-20% of riverine ecosystems reserved for nature conservation Protection of marine ecosystems  No use of oceans for carbon storage Prevention of atmospheric air pollution

6. 6 Challenge: Sustainable Development 2 billion people live in energy poverty Access to modern energy services condition for development 1,6 millions die every year due to traditional biomass burning Source: IEA

7. Socioeconomic guard rails Access to advanced energy for all Meet individual requirements for energy  By 2020 at least 500 kWh per person  By 2050 at least 700 kWh per person Limit proportion of income spent for energy  Poor households: <10% of income for energy Minimum macroeconomic development Keep risks within a normal range  Phase out of nuclear power Prevent desease caused by energy use

8. Long-term scenarios Basis for the WBGU exemplary path: A1T-450 (IPCC-Post-SRES scenario, IIASA, MESSAGE-Model) A High economic growth 1 Economic and social convergence, globalization, cooperation between regions T dynamical technological development towards non-fossile energy sources 450 CO 2 stabilization level in ppmv.

9. From temperatures to stabilization levels 450 ppm CO 2 path (until 2100) Different values of climate Sensitivity A1T-scenario

10. WBGU Exemplary Path Energy productivity to be improved 1.4% per year initially, later 1.6% p.a. (historical: 1%). Three pillars: Declining use of fossil fuel Rising use of renewables Growing energy Productivity

11. Improve energy productivity Establish international standards prescribing minimum efficiencies for fossil fueled power plants By 2012 generate 20% of electricity in the EU through combined heat and power (setting binding national quotas) Create incentives for efficiency through ecological financial reforms and remove subsidies for fossil and nuclear energy Improve information of end user (harmonization of efficiency standards and labels)

12. Sustainable potential of technologies The potential of an energy source covering all aspects of sustainability: requires careful examination of different ecological and socio-economic aspects. Examples: TechnologyAlready used potential (EJ/a) Sustainable potential (EJ/a) Hydropower9.912 (by 2020) Solar electricity0.01> 1000 For comparison: global consumption in 2000 was 420 EJ.

13. WBGU Exemplary Path: Global Energy mix

14. Characteristics of WBGU exemplary path Increased energy productivity Factor 3 by 2050 (1.6% increase) Phase out of non sustainable energy sources Fossil fuels: long term phase out necessary Nuclear energy: phase out by 2050 Phase in of renewable energy: 20% by 2020, 50% by 2050, 85% by 2100 Solar energy: fast increase(tenfold growth per decade) Wind energy: fast increase(tenfold growth per decade until 2020) Biomass: Conservative assessment of sustainable potential (100 EJ/a) Hydro, Geothermal: Conservative assessment (15 EJ/a, 20 EJ/a) CO 2 sequestration necessary 200 Gt storage total (transition technology), use of depleted oil and gas fields Biomass + sequestration (negative emissions)

15. Visualization of surface Area required for solar electricity by 2050 a)Area for North America, 100% solar power plants b)Area for Western Europe: 2/3 generated in Europe (25% solar power plants, 75% distributed) 1/3 generated in Sahara (100% solar power plant)

16. 16 Advancing Research and Development Increase government expenditure on energy research Ten-fold by 2020 (OECD) International cooperation UN: World Energy Research Cooperation Programme (WERCP) (in analogy to World Climate Research Programme)

17. 17 Model projects for strategic leverage Model projects - examples Substitution of traditional biomass use by biogenic bottled gas Energy-efficient buildings in the low-cost sector (South African townships) One-million-huts electrification programme“ for DC (off-grid) Energy partnerships Strategic Energy partnership, e.g. between EU and North Africa

18. Uncertainties relating to permissible emissions between 2000 and 2100 Model results for a pure CO 2 emission scenario (no other GhG or aerosols included) for absolute warming below 2  C (Kriegler and Bruckner, 2003) Divergence of 1,500 GtC exceeds the cumulative emissions of the exemplary path (650 GtC) Note: the exemplary path also gives consideration to other GhG and aerosol effects: the path remains inside the WBGU climate window for a climate sensitivity of up to 2.2  C.

20. Elements of WBGU transformation strategy Eradicating energy poverty Improving energy productivity Expanding renewables substantially Mobilizing financial resources Using model projects for strategic leverage Advance in research and development Strengthening global energy policy institutions

21. Climate Protection Strategies for the 21st Century: Kyoto and beyond Special report, November 2003

22. Choice of Scenarios WBGU constraints: Biomass use (incl. non-commercial) limited to 100 EJ Hydro limited to 12 EJ medium term (15 EJ long term) Nuclear plants globally phased out until 2050 Cumulative CO 2 storage 300 GtC maximum (storage phasing out 2100)

23. Primary energy use in IIASA- WBGU-Scenarios A1T*A1T*-450 B1* B1*-400

24. Primary energy use in IIASA- WBGU-Scenarios B2B2-400

25. Emission entitlements NAM – North America (USA, Canada), WEU – Western Europe (incl.Turkey), PAO – Pacific OECD (Japan, NZ,Australia), EEU – Central and Eastern Europe, FSU – Newly independent states of the former Soviet Union, CPA – Centrally planned Asia and China, SAS – South Asia (incl. India), PAS – Other Pacific Asia, LAM – Latin America and the Carribean, MEA – Middle East, AFR – Sub-Saharan Africa

26. IIASA World regions

27. Cumulative CO 2 emissions

28. AFR – Sub-Saharan Africa, CPA – Centrally planned Asia and China, EEU – Central and Eastern Europe, FSU – Newly independent states of the former Soviet Union, LAM – Latin America and the Carribean, MEA – Middle East, NAM – North America (USA, Canada), PAO – Pacific, PAS – Other Pacific Asia, SAS – South Asia (incl. India), WEU – Western Europe (incl.Turkey). Effects of mitigation on GDP

29. Recommendations emission reductions CO 2 target below 450 ppm, otherwise climate window will be left in case climate sensitivity exceeds 2 ºC. Global energy and industry related CO 2 emissions must be reduced by 45-60% by 2050. Industrialized countries must reduce their greenhouse gas emissions from the use of fossil fuels by at least 20% by 2020.

30. For further information and download/order of reports: www.wbgu.de wbgu@wbgu.de

31. Spare slides