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Published byCarley Coombe Modified over 9 years ago
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Gilead Sciences, Inc. NASDAQ: GILD Vivek VinayakPatrick Leake
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Company Background Research-based pharmaceutical company Primary focus in HIV/AIDS, liver diseases, respiratory and cardiovascular, and cancer 16 products (6 HIV, 2 Liver, 3 Cardiovascular, 2 Respiratory, 3 Other)
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Company Background $9.7bn revenue, ⅔ from HIV products $4.2bn EBITDA, 43% margin 17% revenue growth over past year Street estimates ~40% revenue growth 2014 due to release of products for HCV oral treatment
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Investment Thesis Strong track record Several recent acquisitions will come into fruition o Pharmasset acquired in 2011 for $11bn Current leader in Hepatitis C drugs o Forefront of innovation Strong product pipeline focusing on HCV, HIV, cardiovascular and respiratory disorders
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Catalysts U.S. launch of Sovaldi drug was a success o Approved on December 6, 2013 o December sales totaled $136mi o Sales estimated to top $2.4bn o Filing for approval in Europe before the end of the quarter Recently filed for approval of their once-daily fixed-dose drug for HCV treatment o Combination of ledipasvir (LDV) and sofosbuvir (SOF) o FDA has assigned LDV/SOF a “Breakthrough Therapy” designation o Sales expected to exceed $7bn/yr
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Intrinsic Valuation - DCF
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WACC
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Sensitivity
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Relative Valuation
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Relative Valuation - Implied Price/Share
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Investment Risks Primary competition from AbbVie (NYSE: ABBV) o Also working on fixed dose combination drug Approximately 45% of product sales occur outside the U.S. o Earnings can be negatively affected by currency fluctuations Healthcare reform (340B Drug Pricing Program) o Rebate amount owed to Medicaid increased by 8% o Required to provide a 50% discount on products sold to patients enrolled in Medicare Part D
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Obligatory Bloomberg Plug For Thomas
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