1. Workshop on CAP reform impact analysis, Bruxelles 6.11.2003 1 CAPRI Farm Type Models For CAPRI Development of models and tools for assessing the environmental impact of agricultural policies Wolfgang Britz Institute for Agricultural Policy, University Bonn CAPRI Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact

2. Workshop on CAP reform impact analysis, Bruxelles 6.11.2003 2 CAPRI Outline Why farm type models ? FADN as data source Integration in the data base Integration in the modeling system Exploitation Unresolved issues

3. Workshop on CAP reform impact analysis, Bruxelles 6.11.2003 3 CAPRI Why farm type models Farm specialization matters: regarding environmental impacts (stocking densities etc.) regarding policy impacts (farm specific ceilings) regarding model behavior linkages between activities, especially fodder crops and animals

4. Workshop on CAP reform impact analysis, Bruxelles 6.11.2003 4 CAPRI FADN as data source Farm Accounting Data Network (FADN): single farm records covering revenues and costs, production program and certain yields, premiums but no input allocation not always clear link to administrative NUTS regions (instead own “FADN” regions) differences in activity/product breakdown compared to CAPRI restricted access due to confidentiality issues

5. Workshop on CAP reform impact analysis, Bruxelles 6.11.2003 5 CAPRI Integration in the data base Four Step Procedure: (1) Selection from FADN records (2) Perfect aggregation of single farms to NUTS II (3) Aggregation from single farm to farm types (4) Integration in CAPRI data base

6. Workshop on CAP reform impact analysis, Bruxelles 6.11.2003 6 CAPRI Integration of FADN, Step 1 FADN records FADN CAPRI records Mapping to CAPRI product list select/aggregate/distribute FADN items according to CAPRI product list Per farm in sample: Activity levels Production Aggregation weights Farm classification

7. Workshop on CAP reform impact analysis, Bruxelles 6.11.2003 7 CAPRI Integration of FADN, Step 2 FADN CAPRI records CAPRI data base Consistency (Levels, Output) ensure perfect aggregation from individual FADN records to NUTS II data in CAPRI data base

8. Workshop on CAP reform impact analysis, Bruxelles 6.11.2003 8 CAPRI Integration of FADN, Step 2 Ensure perfect aggregation by simultaneous determination of optimal correction factors of single farm records for : activity levels (ha, herd sizes) yields aggregation weights aggregation weights are distributed over regions (a single farm in one region may be “typical” for farms in other regions as well) => more observations for specific types => no problems with confidentiality limit Technically: entropy penalty function

9. Workshop on CAP reform impact analysis, Bruxelles 6.11.2003 9 CAPRI Integration of FADN, Step 3 FADN records CAPRI data base Consistency (Levels, Output) Assignment to NUTS 6 Types per region select the five most frequent types per region aggregate remaining farms into “residual type”

10. Workshop on CAP reform impact analysis, Bruxelles 6.11.2003 10 CAPRI Integration of FADN, Step 3 How are types selected ? Three-digit classification of economic specialization (e.g. 202 Specialist flowers and ornamentals) Sum up aggregation weights per type and region => represent number of farms Select five most frequent ones => selection by number of agents, not necessarily by economic/environmental impact all remaining farms aggregated into “residual group”

11. Workshop on CAP reform impact analysis, Bruxelles 6.11.2003 11 CAPRI Integration FADN in the data base CoCo REGIO CAPREG 6 Types per region FADN records CAPRI data base Consistency (Levels, Output) Assignment to NUTS

12. Workshop on CAP reform impact analysis, Bruxelles 6.11.2003 12 CAPRI Integration in the modeling system Each farm type is treated like a “NUTS III” region No change in the structure of the supply models Consequently, now about 1050 regional aggregate models on the supply side aggregation to NUTS II/Member State/EU for premium and market modules

13. Workshop on CAP reform impact analysis, Bruxelles 6.11.2003 13 CAPRI Exploitation CAPRI Regionalised Data Base CAPRI Modelling System Farm types Aggregation NUTS II Aggregation MS,EU CAPRI Result Data Base Mapping tool HTML tables DAOUT EXCEL etc.

14. Workshop on CAP reform impact analysis, Bruxelles 6.11.2003 14 CAPRI Unresolved Issues Continuous access to FADN data Farm specific constraints ? Farm specific policy ceilings e.g. stocking density restrictions tremendous increase in memory allocation and solution time of complete modelling system