1. Wood Supply and Wildlife Habitat Modelling Lesson 8 Presentation 2

2. We use models everyday =

3. Models are your friends = ?

4. What are models? Models are representations of some aspect of reality Designed to describe, analyze, understand, predict something

5. Model Basics Forest Inventory Rules to change inventory to timber or habitat New Inventory or outputs such as timber or habitat

6. Lets talk about models Volume = b 0 *BA*SI*(1-e -b 1 *age ) b 2

7. Timber Supply Model

8. Timber supply Forest Inventory Tree spp, Amount, Age, height, location, size of polygon Convert to timber volume by spp Spp volume by age Growth of each spp by site, age, density Mortality, cull by site, age, spp Spp change with time Harvest and regeneration cost Regen success Access and limits to protect other values

9. Forest Inventory Satellite imagery Forest Resources Inventory

10. Management Alternatives - What are they? Management Alternative “The combination of a set of objectives and associated strategies for their achievement …” (FMPM) Current Forest Action Future Forest Needs How & What

11. Management Alternatives (MAs) Management Alternative - 1 Management Alternative - 2 Etc....

12. Management Alternative Principles ALL objectives and targets be it Timber or Non-timber are kept constant throughout ALL Management AlternativesALL objectives and targets be it Timber or Non-timber are kept constant throughout ALL Management Alternatives F Old Growth, Wildlife & Wood supply ‘targets’ are kept constant throughout ALL Alternatives

13. Benchmark Scenario F Natural/Benchmark Scenario F Natural/Benchmark Scenario (natural disturbances) F Used to forecast how forest would develop void of human activity (e.g. silviculture or fire suppression) F Assumption that left alone forest is sustainable F All other Management Alternatives are compared to this Benchmark Scenario F Desire to have managed forest develop in a within acceptable range to ‘Natural’ forest dynamics

14. Management Alternative - 1 MA 1 - MandatoryMA 1 - Mandatory - Timber Production Potential - Unlimited Silvicultural Funding F Objective is to determine the maximum volume that could be produced by the forest if unlimited $$ were available F Intent is to scope ‘opportunities’ if extra funds were made available

15. Management Alternative - 2 F MA 2 - Mandatory F MA 2 - Mandatory - Timber Production Potential - Limited Regeneration Funding F Limits funding to stumpage revenues acquired through harvesting F Intent is to scope what is possible with funding that is anticipated

16. Management Alternative - 3 F MA 3 - Mandatory F MA 3 - Mandatory - Meet Industrial Demand - Unlimited Silvicultural Funds F ‘Hard Targets’ on species and ‘flow’ are set for forest to meet anticipated industrial demand F Intent is to scope the affects of regulated volume flow F Similar to MA - 1 with few nuances

17. Management Alternative - 4 MA 4MA 4 - Recreation and Wildlife Focus F Attempts to create an ‘ideal’ forest for recreation by maximizing the production of forests dominated by mature Conifer and Mixedwood Forests F Approach intended to model ‘Non-timber’ focus - discussion

18. Management Alternative - 5 F MA 5 F MA 5 - Preliminary Preferred Management Alternative - Timber Production Level with Limited Silvicultural Funds F Proposes an approach to meet both Timber and Non-timber objectives

19. Strategic Forest Management Model (SFMM) Used to develop Management Alternatives and produce results that can be tested for sustainability

20. What Strategic Timber Computer Model Do Forest Condition Cost ($$) vs. Benefit (result) Habitat ( for selected wildlife species) Wood Supply

21. How SFMM Models SFMM is a non-spatial ‘Optimization’ model Based on Inputs, constraints & objectives SFMM will find the best possible solution This ‘solution’ then requires interpretation “Models never make decisions - people do.”

22. Inputs & Constraints (rules) Forest Resource Inventory How a Forest Develops Over Time Treatment Options How ‘We’ want the Forest to Develop

23. Meeting Strategic Objectives Forest Diversity Social & Economic Wildlife Silviculture

24. Diversity * Wildlife * Age-Class structure * Old Growth * Wood Supply * Silviculture * Socio-Economics *... Results Have we met our objectives? Tests of Sustainability?Does the Management Alternative meet the Tests of Sustainability?

25. Meeting Objectives

26. Wildlife Non-spatial Test of Sustainability Barred Owl Black Bear Summer Black Bear Autumn Blackburnian Warbler Broad-winged Hawk (breeding) Least Fly-catcher American Marten Moose (feeding) Moose (winter) Northern Flying Squirrel Pileated Woodpecker Red-backed Salamander Ruby-crowned Kinglet Red-headed Woodpecker Red-shouldered Hawk Ruffed Grouse Snowshoe Hare (winter) Spruce Grouse White-tailed Deer (summer) White-tailed Deer (winter) White-throated Sparrow

27. Test of Sustainability - Selected Wildlife

28. Habitat Supply

29. Habitat supply Forest Inventory Tree spp, Amount, Age, height, location, size of polygon Convert to habitat supply for each wildlife spp Spp volume by age Growth of each spp by site, age, density Mortality, cull by site, age, spp Spp change with time Harvest and regeneration cost Regen success Size, amount, age of trees =habitat

30. Modeling is fun!

31. Habitat suitability models Translate inventory into habitat supply Suitable means –lots of animals –good reproduction –low mortality

32. Habitat suitability model: renting a house 1400+ sq ft 3+ bedrooms gas heat Dishwasher & cook! non-spatial criteria

33. Wildlife Habitat Relationships Models Red-backed salamanders

34. Non-spatial HSMing

35. No spatial context Some species need edges Some species need forest interior Some species need a juxtaposition of habitats

36. Habitat suitability model: renting a house nice neighborhood nice view close to college close to Tim Horton’s spatial criteria

37. Spatial red-shouldered hawk habitat model

38. Non-spatial Suitability Indices Stand height > 20 m Ecosite type ES24-26 Basal area > 23 m2/ha

39. Disturbance Suitability Indices Primary roads > 150 m Clearings > 100 m Buildings < 9 within 300m

40. Overall Habitat Suitability

41. Model outputs

42. Non-spatial HSMing

43. Spatial HSMing - Prescriptive use

44. Spatial modeling - Evaluative use

45. Habitat suitability and population density =?

46. Questions?