1. What Happened The Election of 2010

2. Clearly Stated Learning Objectives Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2010 Election. Assess the upcoming 2012 Presidential Elections.

3. 2010 PART 2 What comes around, goes around?

4. The House Results GOP Gets – 100% of leaning GOP Seats (29) – 30 of 42 Tossups – 6 “safe/leaning” Democratic seats

5. The Senate Results No Decapitation of Reid No Biden Seat The Democrats Hold

6. Homeostasis Government tends to disappoint We move back to correct parties that go too far Exposure

7. The Nationalized Election National factors trumped local factors for the third time This time around, these factors favored the GOP This Hurts Incumbents

8. Issues and 2010

9. The Most Important Issue of 2008 Obama misread the 2008 electorate The Most important issue of 2008 went unresolved

10. The Issues of 2010

11. THE ECONOMY The Primary Issue

12. A Referendum on the Economy

13. Unemployment

14. Who is to Blame?

15. DEBT AND STIMULUS

16. The National Debt on Election Day 2008

17. The National Debt on 11/2/2010

18. Budget Deficits and Record Spending 2009 Budget Deficit was over 1.4 Trillion 2010 at 1.3 Trillion

19. Voters wanted deficit reduction

20. The Stimulus Package Success – Potentially Staved off a second depression Problems – High Price Tag – Did not meet expectations

21. Voters are Split on its Effectiveness

22. THE HEALTH CARE LAW

23. Opinion Remains Divided

24. A REFERENDUM ON PRESIDENT OBAMA The Man and His Policies

25. President Obama’s Popularity

26. On Election Day: A Referendum

27. On Election Day: The Policy Dichotomy

28. THE TEA PARTY The X factor in 2010

29. The Tea Party Movement Unique in that they do not want anything from government Also no Formal/ Hierarchical organization Very Motivated

30. The Tea Party was unified in its Anger at Government

31. The Tea Party Tapped into Angry Voters

32. The Tea party was a Popular Movement

33. With Motivated Voters on Election Day

34. THE SENATE The Results

35. Policy 2010-2012

36. Senate Gridlock is Likely Fillibusters from the Minority Party Unwillingness to pass House bills from the Majority Party. A lack of moderates to broker deals

37. Policy In the House The GOP has majority, but it will not be easy – Integrating the Tea Party – Facing an ideologically homogenous Democratic Party

38. What Not To Expect Climate Change Legislation Comprehensive Immigration Reform

39. What Not To Expect: Social Security Reform The Trust Fund will be exhausted in 2037 Benefits will be cut by 22% at that time

40. REPEALING HEALTH CARE Not Going to Happen Through Congress

41. “We will immediately take action to repeal this law.” Republican “Pledge To America”

42. H.R. 2: Repealing the Job-Killing Health Care Law Act

43. S.AMDT 13

44. The Electoral College (Obama won)

45. The Nature and legitimacy of the Campaign A relatively mild campaign An election without a question of legitimacy

46. The Electoral College Results The National Popular vote remains irrelevant 270 Electoral Votes remains the Goal

47. The Final Tally

49. The Electoral College 51 separate elections Article II, Section I allows the states to decide how they choose their electors How the states decide

50. Campaign Strategy under the Electoral College Race for Electoral Votes Not a race for Popular votes Draw the map and stick to it

51. Resource Allocation Time and Money are best spent where they will give you a R.O.I. Many states do not see the candidates Fewer than 20 states in any given election

52. The minimum winning coalition 270 is all that is necessary – 11 states can give you 271 – This puts the emphasis on big states Can you win or will you win? Remember opportunity costs regarding $ and time.

53. The Basic Strategy Win your state and Your v-p’s state Do not spend time where you will win Do not spend time where you will lose Electoral Votes, matter nothing else does

54. Geography and the Electoral College Democrats keep their safe areas Democrats Make In-Roads into Republican Territory Republicans hold-on, barely

55. Regional Changes The Battle For the South New England becomes more solidly democratic The Mountain West

56. Voter Turnout

57. California The Electoral College Crown Democrats Cannot win without it Population is flatlining