1. NIST Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory Intelligent Systems Division A National Program for Understanding the Mechanisms of Mind James S. Albus Senior NIST Fellow Intelligent Systems Division National Institute of Standards and Technology Bldg 220, Rm B-124 Gaithersburg, MD 20899 james.albus@nist.gov

2. NIST Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory Intelligent Systems Division Goal Extend the frontiers of human knowledge to include a scientific understanding of the processes in the human brain that give rise to the phenomenon of mind. A Scientific Theory of Mind

3. NIST Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory Intelligent Systems Division Integrate elements from existing programs in: Neurosciences – neurophysiology, brain modeling Cognitive sciences – psychology, reasoning Computer sciences – AI, simulation & modeling Control theory – mechanisms and control Game theory – decision making, cost/benefit analysis Robotics – perception, world modeling, behavior Visualization – computer graphics, video games Bring together researchers from top laboratories around the country with a common focus for a "Decade of the Mind" Approach

4. NIST Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory Intelligent Systems Division Why Now? Neurosciences – computation and representation in the brain - biochemistry, synaptic transmission, functional modules, brain imaging Cognitive Modeling – representation and use of knowledge - mathematics, logic, language, learning, problem solving Intelligent Control – making machines behave appropriately - manufacturing, autonomous vehicles, manipulation, locomotion Depth Imaging – geometrical modeling of 3-D world - image & map segmentation, classification, symbol grounding Computational Power – speed and memory that rival the brain - >10 10 ops today, heading for >10 15 ops. The science & technology is ready Integration across disciplines – reference model architecture

5. NIST Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory Intelligent Systems Division We are at a tipping point Analogous to where nuclear physics was in 1905 Fundamental processes are understood in principle Technology is emerging to conduct definitive experiments Perception World modeling Reasoning Planning Control Brain structure and function Cognitive & control architectures Computational equivalence Language Learning & memory Significant military and economic applications will develop early in the century

6. NIST Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory Intelligent Systems Division We live at a unique point in the history of science. The technology to discover and characterize how the subjective mind emerges out of the objective brain is within reach. The next years will prove decisive. -- Christof Koch from The Quest for Consciousness 2004

7. NIST Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory Intelligent Systems Division Computational power will soon be available Today’s supercomputer >10 14 ops Computing power of human brain ~ 10 13 - 10 16 ops 10 10 11 10 12 10 13 10 14 10 15 10 16 2005201020152020202520302035 Computational power x10 every 5 years Single board Cluster of 10 Computing Power (ops) Date Supercomputer

8. NIST Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory Intelligent Systems Division Military – Future Combat System, UGV, UAV, UUV, UGS Commercial – autos, trucks Entertainment – video games Academic – AI, robotics Intelligent Machines Will Be Critical for Military Security and Economic Prosperity Money Is Flowing Progress is rapid Billions of $ will be invested over the next decade

9. NIST Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory Intelligent Systems Division NIST/ARL Roadmap to 2025 2005 – Robust autonomous road-following and off-road driving 2010 – LADAR cameras provide the range, resolution, and speed to cope with dense traffic 2015 – Cognitive reasoning capabilities enable useful tactical behaviors on the battlefield 2020 – Cognitive reasoning and tactical behaviors approach human levels of performance 2025 – Autonomous combat vehicles surpass human levels of performance in most, if not all, areas

10. NIST Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory Intelligent Systems Division First Draft A Plan for A National Program for Understanding the Mechanisms of Mind 1. Theory and Fundamental Science 2. Experimental Test Environment 3. Practical Applications 4. Performance Metrics 5. Social, Ethical, and Legal Issues

11. NIST Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory Intelligent Systems Division First Draft of a Plan 1. Theory and Fundamental Science Goals: a) To develop theoretical models of the brain that describe the inputs and outputs of all of the major neural modules and systems of the brain, and specify the functional transformations that take place therein. b) To develop theoretical models of the mind that generate the functional equivalent of the phenomena of perception, cognition, intention, imagination, memory, learning, feeling, emotion, and behaviors of manipulation, locomotion, and language.

12. NIST Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory Intelligent Systems Division First Draft of a Plan 2. Experimental Test Environment Goals: a) To develop experimental models of the brain that mimic the inputs and outputs of functional modules in the brain, and mimic the functional transformations that take place therein. b) To demonstrate the performance of brain models in controlling systems applied to real-world tasks of locomotion, manipulation, imagination, reasoning, and natural language conversation.

13. NIST Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory Intelligent Systems Division First Draft of a Plan 3. Practical Applications Goal: To apply intelligent systems technology to social and economic problems such as: Manufacturing – autos, appliances, planes, drugs, textiles Construction – roads, bridges, homes, businesses, factories Transportation – trucks, cars, buses, planes, trains Agriculture – planting, harvesting, tending, aquaculture Mining and drilling – digging, hauling, undersea ops Recycling and environmental restoration Renewable sources of energy Education and entertainment Aids to handicapped and elderly Medical and nursing care

14. NIST Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory Intelligent Systems Division First Draft of a Plan 4. Metrics a) To develop methods and measures for verifying, validating, and evaluating models of mind and brain. b) To develop methods and measures for measuring the performance of intelligent machines and systems. Goals:

15. NIST Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory Intelligent Systems Division First Draft of a Plan 5. Social & Ethical Issues Goal: a) To confront the social, ethical, legal, and philosophical issues related to investigating the human mind, including the implications for mental health. b) To provide a forum for public debate of the potential costs, risks, and benefits of understanding the mind, including possible religious and civil liberties objections. c) To address issues of unemployment, economic growth, and environmental implications of intelligent machines.

16. NIST Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory Intelligent Systems Division How Much Should We Invest? NIST Study of Economic Impact on Manufacturing and Construction DOD Studies on Military Impact of Robotic Vehicles on the Battlefield DOT Studies on Safety Impact of Driver Warning and Collision Avoidance Systems Investment should be commensurate with expected benefits

17. NIST Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory Intelligent Systems Division Similar National Investments Human Genome Program ~$3 Billion Hubble Space Telescope ~$3 Billion Apollo Moon Expedition ~ $20 Billion A Rational National Investment: $4 Billion over a Decade in Understanding the Human Mind International Space Station ~$100 Billion Iraq war ~$2 Billion/week

18. NIST Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory Intelligent Systems Division DARPA interest is high and will continue -- Dr. Tony Tether DARPA Director Biologically Inspired Cognitive Architectures (BICA) Biomemetic Computing Personalized Assistant that Learns (PAL) Transfer Learning Integrated Learning Architectures for Cognitive Information Processing (ACIP) Global Autonomous Language Exploitation (GALE) Advanced Soldier Sensor Information System and Technology (ASSIST) Real-World Reasoning (REAL) Coordination Decision Support Assistants (Coordinators)

19. NIST Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory Intelligent Systems Division DARPA interest is high and will continue -- Dr. Tony Tether DARPA Director Improving Warfighter Information Intake Under Stress Human-Assisted Neural Devices Revolutionizing Prosthetics Neurotechnology for Intelligence Analysts About to begin a program to understand how the brain and vision system work together to process and recognize images

20. NIST Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory Intelligent Systems Division Krasnow Institute at George Mason University will host a workshop in Spring of 2007 to Ascertain the Advisability of a Decade of the Mind Plans for Implementation Plans to enlist other agencies: National Institutes of Health National Science Foundation NASA Army Research Laboratory Office of Naval Research National Academy of Science

21. NIST Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory Intelligent Systems Division Or snail-mail to: James Albus National Institute of Standards and Technology Bldg 220, Rm B-124 Gaithersburg, MD 20899 James.Albus@nist.gov Feedback Questions If you wish to register your opinion on any of these issues, please e-mail me at:

22. NIST Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory Intelligent Systems Division Feedback Questions 2) Do you believe that a scientific theory of mind is achievable: within a decade? within two decades? before 2050? before 3000? never? 1) Do you believe that a scientific theory of mind is a desirable goal? 3) In your field of expertise, if you had a $ 50 million budget, and a 10 year planning horizon: what program of research would you propose? 4) How much could you usefully spend?

23. NIST Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory Intelligent Systems Division 5) What areas of the brain would you choose to model? 6) What phenomena of the mind would you choose to model? 7) What parameters would you include in your model? 8) How would propose to test your model? Feedback Questions 9) What kinds of experimental apparatus would be required to validate your model? 10) How would you demonstrate and evaluate results? 11) What are the fundamental metrics and measures?

24. NIST Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory Intelligent Systems Division 12) What applications could be expected to result from success in what you propose? in medicine? in clinical practice? in health care? in manufacturing? in transportation? in construction? in services? in other areas? 13) In each area, estimate the economic and social benefits, costs, and risks. Feedback Questions 14) What do you think is the best approach to raising money and garnering political support? 15) What are the pitfalls one should anticipate? 16) What are the downside risks? 17) What agencies are likely to provide funding? 18) What other questions need to be asked?

25. NIST Manufacturing Engineering Laboratory Intelligent Systems Division Handouts are Available