1. www.waterdm.comwww.incentware.com Urban Water Demand Trends Conservation and the Future of Residential Water Use Peter Mayer, P.E. peter.mayer@waterdm.com www.a4we.org

2. Water Demand Management: Why? Water shortages Expensive to develop new supplies Climate change

3. Demand Management = Serious Business

4. Drought @2050 vs Notorious Recent Historical Droughts 2040-2060 PDSI = Palmer Drought Severity Index PDSI was developed by Wayne Palmer in the 1960s and uses temperature and rainfall information in a formula to determine dryness. Source: Dr. Martin Hoerling, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory

7. Utilities are Asking: Where did the demand go? City of Westminster, CO average annual household water use, 2000 – 2010, with trend line

8. Seattle Public Utilities - 1990

9. Forecast Without Conservation

10. Firm Yield in 2013

11. Forecast With Conservation

12. 2013

13. A brief history of demand forecasting in Seattle

14. Seattle Saved $725 million PV Cost of New Supply $800 Million PV Cost of Conservation: $ 75 Million _______________________________________________________________ NPV : $725 Million

15. Avg. Annual Use Per SF Home (kgal) Source: Mayer, P. et. al. 2013. Residential End Uses of Water Update. AWWA - ACE, Denver, CO.

16. 1999 REUWS vs. 2014 REUWS gallons per household per day

17. 2014 REUWS Update

19. Homes Meeting Efficiency Criteria Toilet < 2 gal., Clothes washer <30 gal.

21. Technological change Behavioral change More intense and frequent drought Water demand management at the retail level

22. Peter Mayer, P.E. peter.mayer@waterdm.com